27703 ORTEGA Hwy #88 · San Juan Capistrano, CA 92675

$436,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 10 Days on market

Built 1976 $303/sqft · at area comps Est $443k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Updated Kitchen and Working Fireplace in Living Room! * * Welcome to this spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring an inviting open living room with cathedral ceilings and beautifully finished walls. A working fireplace adds charm and warmth to the space, and you’ll find dual-pane windows throughout the home. The updated kitchen opens up to a comfortable family room, making it perfect for entertaining. The large master bedroom boasts a wall-sized closet, ensuring ample storage. Its ensuite master bath is generously sized and features dual vanity sinks, along with a separate area for the shower and commode. The interior laundry room comes equipped with a washer and dryer. The guest bath is also large and includes a convenient “Jack & Jill” setup, providing easy access from both bedrooms. Step outside to enjoy a private outdoor space adorned with lush landscaping and a gazebo-style cover, perfect for relaxation. There is also a large shed for extra storage located in the covered carport area and extended awning supports for wider parking area. This home is situated in the highly sought-after El Nido Mobile Home Estates, one of Southern California's finest rent-controlled senior living communities. The location is conveniently close to the charming historic downtown of San Juan Capistrano, where you can enjoy shopping, fine dining, entertainment, social events, and transportation. Plus, you’re just minutes away from Dana Point Harbor and the beautiful sands of Doheny Beach. Live affordably in this wonderful community, which features a beautiful clubhouse, a large pool, a jacuzzi, and a billiards room. Pets are welcome! Call today for your private showing.

Key facts

• Working fireplace
• Updated kitchen
• Lush landscaping

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• WORKING FIREPLACE
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SPACE
• LUSH LANDSCAPING
• GAZEBO STYLE COVER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Mobile home community setting; Living area reported as estimated
• HOA & community: Senior community; Manager approval required; Pets allowed with number limit; Land lease ($888)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Attached carport; Park Name: EL NIDO MOBILE ESTATES
• Utilities: Public sewer; Sewer connected; Water connected; District/public water source; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry at level 1; Mobile home remains on site (24' x 60'); Located in El Nido Mobile Estates
• Construction: Raised foundation; Year built reported from public records
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Lanai; Deck; Yard; Walkstreet; Community pool; Gutters

Interior

• Kitchen: Garbage disposal; Free-standing range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with soaking tub, separate tub and shower, and double sinks
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Double-pane windows; Remodeled kitchen; Jack & Jill layout; Main floor primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $436k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $411k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $411k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.3% in San Juan Capistrano — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#114 in CA, #4,023 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Capistrano Unified (suburban): math 50% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #64 of 517 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $410,978 (5.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.26%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $442,703
• List price: $436,500
• Delta: -2.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27703 ORTEGA Hwy #88	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$399,500	$277	99
27703 Ortega #50	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	0mo	$330,000	$220	93
27703 Ortega #111	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	1mo	$575,000	$383	92
27703 Ortega #91	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$385,000	$267	90
27703 Ortega Hwy #13	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	4mo	$295,000	$192	86
27703 Ortega Hwy #133	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	19mo	$470,000	$326	84
27703 Ortega #122	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	2mo	$550,000	$344	80
27703 Ortega Hwy #76	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$335,000	$233	79
27703 Ortega Hwy #93	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	16mo	$445,000	$290	75
27703 Ortega Hwy #80	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	13mo	$305,000	$227	71
27703 Ortega Hwy #113	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+15%)	21mo	$660,000	$400	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-34,291
• Equity at exit: $65,084

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $88,122
• Equity at exit: $37,741

Cash invested: $122,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92675

• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,110 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,289
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$546 /mo · $6,548/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$863
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,818

Max offer price $436,500

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,125
• Closing costs: $13,095
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31461 Sundance Dr San Juan Capistrano, CA	3.0	2.0	1230	$3,795	$3.09	3d	1	0.48mi
31645 Rancho Viejo Rd San Juan Capistrano, CA	1.0	1.0	1280	$4,600	$3.59	17d	1	0.87mi
31192 Calle San Pedro San Juan Capistrano, CA	3.0	2.0	1206	$4,000	$3.32	4d	1	0.91mi
31407 El Horno St San Juan Capistrano, CA	1.0	1.0	1400	$1,580	$1.13	43d	1	0.95mi
30789 Calle Chueca San Juan Capistrano, CA	3.0	1.5	1267	$4,000	$3.16	13d	1	1.16mi
30789 Calle Chueca San Juan Capistrano, CA	3.0	1.5	1267	$4,000	$3.16	14d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $436,500 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $436,500 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $425,900 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-05-12
   status Pending Sale 1717-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1717 chars)

   * Updated Kitchen and Working Fireplace in Living Room! * * Welcome to this spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring an inviting open living room with cathedral ceilings and beautifully finished walls. A working fireplace adds charm and warmth to the space, and you’ll find dual-pane windows throughout the home. The updated kitchen opens up to a comfortable family room, making it perfect for entertaining. The large master bedroom boasts a wall-sized closet, ensuring ample storage. Its ensuite master bath is generously sized and features dual vanity sinks, along with a separate area for the shower and commode. The interior laundry room comes equipped with a washer and dryer. The guest bath is also large and includes a convenient “Jack & Jill” setup, providing easy access from both bedrooms. Step outside to enjoy a private outdoor space adorned with lush landscaping and a gazebo-style cover, perfect for relaxation. There is also a large shed for extra storage located in the covered carport area and extended awning supports for wider parking area. This home is situated in the highly sought-after El Nido Mobile Home Estates, one of Southern California's finest rent-controlled senior living communities. The location is conveniently close to the charming historic downtown of San Juan Capistrano, where you can enjoy shopping, fine dining, entertainment, social events, and transportation. Plus, you’re just minutes away from Dana Point Harbor and the beautiful sands of Doheny Beach. Live affordably in this wonderful community, which features a beautiful clubhouse, a large pool, a jacuzzi, and a billiards room. Pets are welcome! Call today for your private showing.

10. 2026-05-07
    historical Active Under Contract 1717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1717 chars)

    * Updated Kitchen and Working Fireplace in Living Room! * * Welcome to this spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring an inviting open living room with cathedral ceilings and beautifully finished walls. A working fireplace adds charm and warmth to the space, and you’ll find dual-pane windows throughout the home. The updated kitchen opens up to a comfortable family room, making it perfect for entertaining. The large master bedroom boasts a wall-sized closet, ensuring ample storage. Its ensuite master bath is generously sized and features dual vanity sinks, along with a separate area for the shower and commode. The interior laundry room comes equipped with a washer and dryer. The guest bath is also large and includes a convenient “Jack & Jill” setup, providing easy access from both bedrooms. Step outside to enjoy a private outdoor space adorned with lush landscaping and a gazebo-style cover, perfect for relaxation. There is also a large shed for extra storage located in the covered carport area and extended awning supports for wider parking area. This home is situated in the highly sought-after El Nido Mobile Home Estates, one of Southern California's finest rent-controlled senior living communities. The location is conveniently close to the charming historic downtown of San Juan Capistrano, where you can enjoy shopping, fine dining, entertainment, social events, and transportation. Plus, you’re just minutes away from Dana Point Harbor and the beautiful sands of Doheny Beach. Live affordably in this wonderful community, which features a beautiful clubhouse, a large pool, a jacuzzi, and a billiards room. Pets are welcome! Call today for your private showing.

11. 2026-03-31
    listed $429,900 Active 1717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1717 chars)

    * Updated Kitchen and Working Fireplace in Living Room! * * Welcome to this spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring an inviting open living room with cathedral ceilings and beautifully finished walls. A working fireplace adds charm and warmth to the space, and you’ll find dual-pane windows throughout the home. The updated kitchen opens up to a comfortable family room, making it perfect for entertaining. The large master bedroom boasts a wall-sized closet, ensuring ample storage. Its ensuite master bath is generously sized and features dual vanity sinks, along with a separate area for the shower and commode. The interior laundry room comes equipped with a washer and dryer. The guest bath is also large and includes a convenient “Jack & Jill” setup, providing easy access from both bedrooms. Step outside to enjoy a private outdoor space adorned with lush landscaping and a gazebo-style cover, perfect for relaxation. There is also a large shed for extra storage located in the covered carport area and extended awning supports for wider parking area. This home is situated in the highly sought-after El Nido Mobile Home Estates, one of Southern California's finest rent-controlled senior living communities. The location is conveniently close to the charming historic downtown of San Juan Capistrano, where you can enjoy shopping, fine dining, entertainment, social events, and transportation. Plus, you’re just minutes away from Dana Point Harbor and the beautiful sands of Doheny Beach. Live affordably in this wonderful community, which features a beautiful clubhouse, a large pool, a jacuzzi, and a billiards room. Pets are welcome! Call today for your private showing.

12. 2003-02-19
    soldstatus $120,000 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    New Carpet And Floor Tile Have Been Installed. New Stainless Steel Sink In Kitchen. Wood Burning Fire Place In Living Room. .. .. .. Home Does Not Back Up To Another Coach So There Are No Neighbors Behind. Low Low Space Rent $434.00#######

13. 2002-10-10
    listed $130,000 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    New Carpet And Floor Tile Have Been Installed. New Stainless Steel Sink In Kitchen. Wood Burning Fire Place In Living Room. .. .. .. Home Does Not Back Up To Another Coach So There Are No Neighbors Behind. Low Low Space Rent $434.00#######

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,451
• − Property taxes: −$6,548
• − Insurance: −$2,182
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,945
• − Management: −$3,945
• − Depreciation: −$12,698
• Taxable loss: −$4,452
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,069
• After-tax cash flow: $3,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Capistrano Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607440
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $99,673
• Composite: 56.56/100
• National rank: #1147
• State rank: #64 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Juan Capistrano

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #114
• US rank: #4023

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan Capistrano, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 35,095
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,095
• Household income: $129,457
• Rent vs Own: 19.0% rent · 81.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 648.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1003.11%
• Current HPI: 410.383
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.20%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+235.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $436,500 CRMLS
• 2026-06-08 Listed $425,900 CRMLS
• 2026-05-20 Sold (MLS) $399,500 CRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $429,900 CRMLS
• 2003-02-19 Sold (MLS) $120,000 CRMLS
• 2002-10-10 Listed $130,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $15 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.