22513 Prospect Hts · Pine Mountain Lake, CA 95321

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1987 1.39 ac lot Est $273k · 47% under $206/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WELCOME TO YOSEMITE VISTA ESTATES a desirable senior community just 30 minutes to Yosemite National Park amd just minutes to Groveland, this 2 bedroom, 2 bath home features attached 2 car garage and offers comfortable single level living. Enjoy the community amenities including a pool and recreation room perfect for relaxing and socializing with neighbors. Experience the Sierra Foothills

Key facts

• Recreation room
• Community amenities
• Single level living

Tags

• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• RECREATION ROOM
• SINGLE LEVEL LIVING
• SIERRA FOOTHILLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee (includes reserves, water, sewer); Community clubhouse, pool and game room; rural setting

Exterior

• Parking: Attached enclosed garage facing front; 2 garage spaces (covered)
• Utilities: Private water source; 220 volts in kitchen/electrical service; Internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Built in 1987
• Construction: Siding (other); Shingle roof; Shed(s) on property
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Awnings; Front yard; Low-maintenance landscaping; Corner lot; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Refrigerator; Laminate counters; 220 volt outlet
• Bedrooms: Includes a street-level bedroom (1 bedroom at street level)
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane heating; Wood stove; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Den; Office; No steps to entry; Free-standing wood-burning fireplace with raised hearth in living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with cabinets, sink and 220 volt outlet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#896 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.63%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,844
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22608 Prospect Hts	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (-5%)	7mo	$195,000	$119	78
22622 Whispering Pnes	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-7%)	23mo	$255,000	$159	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,029
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $11,258
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95321

• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,611/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$206
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $206 · $2,472/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $145,000 Active
18. 1997-06-05
    soldstatus $143,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,611 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,611 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,611
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,785
• − Management: −$1,785
• − HOA: −$2,472
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $592
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$142
• After-tax cash flow: $2,550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691137
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,027
• Composite: 27.21/100
• National rank: #12450
• State rank: #1094 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pine Mountain Lake

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #23898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Mountain Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,870

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.27%
• Current HPI: 137.7561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $145,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $143,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,611 · +83.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.