7327 Winter Song Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 2006 4,613 sqft lot $178/sqft · 11% below area Est $235k · 11% under $36/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a move in ready home? Here it is! Full renovation in 2023 and has been well maintained by a professional property management company since. Your home features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, generously sized bedrooms, and great location.Vinyl flooring throughout common areas, galley style kitchen with breakfast area. Large fenced in backyard, great for entertaining family and friends.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Full renovation
• Galley style kitchen

Tags

• FULL RENOVATION
• VINYL FLOORING
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $496 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.13%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,000
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -10.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7002 Durango Creek Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+6%)	5mo	$235,000	$188	71
7306 Winter Song Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,333 (+13%)	14mo	$209,900	$157	59
6710 Durango Creek Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+8%)	7mo	$245,000	$193	52
33156 Wedgewood Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+14%)	13mo	$199,900	$149	49
7107 Cool Springs Ct	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,333 (+13%)	22mo	$225,000	$169	48
33131 Mckinley Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-8%)	23mo	$168,000	$156	48
33106 Mckinley Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+9%)	22mo	$229,900	$178	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $139,346
• Equity at exit: $189,095

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.36×
• Total profit: $373,610
• Equity at exit: $407,790

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,524 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,288/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $496

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,896

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33200 Forest West St Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1307	$4,065	$3.11	1d	22	0.19mi
33124 Magnolia Cir Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,875	$1.67	43d	1	0.46mi
39300 Cimarron Way Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1172	$1,353	$1.15	11d	1	0.87mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 2047 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	858	$1,421	$1.66	11d	1	1.16mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,383	$1.73	11d	1	1.16mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 10370 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	858	$1,410	$1.64	10d	1	1.22mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 10390 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	858	$1,411	$1.64	43d	1	1.22mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 10366 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,372	$1.72	10d	1	1.22mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 2162 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	858	$1,386	$1.62	5d	1	1.22mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,340	$1.70	2d	1	1.22mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 2228 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	858	$1,378	$1.61	2d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $209,900 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,900 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,900 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,900 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $214,900 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,900 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $219,900 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Looking for a move in ready home? Here it is! Full renovation in 2023 and has been well maintained by a professional property management company since. Your home features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, generously sized bedrooms, and great location.Vinyl flooring throughout common areas, galley style kitchen with breakfast area. Large fenced in backyard, great for entertaining family and friends.

16. 2026-04-30
    price $224,900 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Looking for a move in ready home? Here it is! Full renovation in 2023 and has been well maintained by a professional property management company since. Your home features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, generously sized bedrooms, and great location.Vinyl flooring throughout common areas, galley style kitchen with breakfast area. Large fenced in backyard, great for entertaining family and friends.

17. 2026-04-25
    price $229,900 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Looking for a move in ready home? Here it is! Full renovation in 2023 and has been well maintained by a professional property management company since. Your home features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, generously sized bedrooms, and great location.Vinyl flooring throughout common areas, galley style kitchen with breakfast area. Large fenced in backyard, great for entertaining family and friends.

18. 2026-04-09
    price $234,900 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Looking for a move in ready home? Here it is! Full renovation in 2023 and has been well maintained by a professional property management company since. Your home features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, generously sized bedrooms, and great location.Vinyl flooring throughout common areas, galley style kitchen with breakfast area. Large fenced in backyard, great for entertaining family and friends.

19. 2026-04-02
    price $239,900 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Looking for a move in ready home? Here it is! Full renovation in 2023 and has been well maintained by a professional property management company since. Your home features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, generously sized bedrooms, and great location.Vinyl flooring throughout common areas, galley style kitchen with breakfast area. Large fenced in backyard, great for entertaining family and friends.

20. 2026-03-26
    price $245,900 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Looking for a move in ready home? Here it is! Full renovation in 2023 and has been well maintained by a professional property management company since. Your home features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, generously sized bedrooms, and great location.Vinyl flooring throughout common areas, galley style kitchen with breakfast area. Large fenced in backyard, great for entertaining family and friends.

21. 2026-03-12
    price $249,900 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Looking for a move in ready home? Here it is! Full renovation in 2023 and has been well maintained by a professional property management company since. Your home features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, generously sized bedrooms, and great location.Vinyl flooring throughout common areas, galley style kitchen with breakfast area. Large fenced in backyard, great for entertaining family and friends.

22. 2026-02-27
    price $254,900 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Looking for a move in ready home? Here it is! Full renovation in 2023 and has been well maintained by a professional property management company since. Your home features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, generously sized bedrooms, and great location.Vinyl flooring throughout common areas, galley style kitchen with breakfast area. Large fenced in backyard, great for entertaining family and friends.

23. 2026-02-11
    historical $1,895
24. 2026-02-05
    listed $259,900 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Looking for a move in ready home? Here it is! Full renovation in 2023 and has been well maintained by a professional property management company since. Your home features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, generously sized bedrooms, and great location.Vinyl flooring throughout common areas, galley style kitchen with breakfast area. Large fenced in backyard, great for entertaining family and friends.

25. 2026-02-04
    listed $1,895
26. 2026-01-31
    historical $1,895
27. 2026-01-14
    listed $1,895
28. 2023-12-20
    soldstatus
29. 2023-12-08
    historical $1,795
30. 2023-12-07
    historical
31. 2023-12-01
    price $229,900
32. 2023-11-16
    listed $1,795
33. 2023-11-14
    price $234,900
34. 2023-11-07
    listed $239,900 Active
35. 2023-08-28
    historical
36. 2023-08-25
    price $204,900
37. 2023-08-18
    listed $209,900 Active
38. 2023-08-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,288 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,841 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$554/yr (+$46/mo · 16.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$3,288
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,423
• − Management: −$2,423
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable income: $2,812
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$675
• After-tax cash flow: $5,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4.8% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $224,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $245,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $254,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Rental Removed $1,895 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-02-05 Listed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed for Rent $1,895 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-01-31 Rental Removed $1,895 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-01-14 Listed for Rent $1,895 RENTALBEAST
• 2023-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-08 Rental Removed $1,795 HARMLS
• 2023-12-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-12-01 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Listed for Rent $1,795 HARMLS
• 2023-11-14 Price Changed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2023-11-07 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2023-08-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-08-25 Price Changed $204,900 HARMLS
• 2023-08-18 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2023-08-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,288 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.