235 Southburn Dr · Hendersonville, TN 37075

$269,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1970 0.26 ac lot $208/sqft · 16% below area Est $321k · 16% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming one-story home offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a functional layout. Enjoy outdoor living on the back porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

Key facts

• Back porch
• Outdoor living
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• OUTDOOR LIVING
• BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.7% in Hendersonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#56 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sumner County (suburban): math 44% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #12 of 139 in TN (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Union Elementary School (math 74% / reading 57%, grade B+, #37 of 952 statewide, top 4%, 576 students, 0% FRL); Knox Doss Middle School At Drakes Creek (math 53% / reading 31%, grade D-, #35 of 333 statewide, top 10%, 597 students, 0% FRL); Station Camp High School (math 26% / reading 56%, grade F, #23 of 332 statewide, top 7%, 1,110 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 34% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,748 units permitted in Sumner County in 2024 (124 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumner County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,814 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.29%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,417
• List price: $269,999
• Delta: -16.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
239 Southburn Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,295 (-0%)	2mo	$295,000	$228	91
190 Wessington Pl	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,220 (-6%)	1mo	$360,000	$295	80
267 Southburn Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+4%)	3mo	$391,000	$290	71
153 Cline Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,340 (+3%)	1mo	$272,000	$203	64
126 Southern Trce	0.58mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,312 (+1%)	2mo	$340,000	$259	59
111 Scotch St	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,156 (-11%)	2mo	$350,000	$303	58
103 Oak Leaf Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+4%)	3mo	$355,000	$262	57
108 Lucinda Ln	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,125 (-14%)	3mo	$340,000	$302	55
322 N Birchwood Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+7%)	1mo	$365,000	$263	53
130 Colonial Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,143 (-12%)	2mo	$290,000	$254	50
131 Southern Trce	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,139 (-12%)	2mo	$315,000	$277	46
106 Lucinda Ln	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,456 (+12%)	5mo	$449,999	$309	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-56,655
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-77,065
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37075

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 682
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,058 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,145/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,231

Max offer price $245,839

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-60	+0% $-137	+5% $-213	+10% $-290
Rent	-10% $-299	-5% $-218	+0% $-137	+5% $-55	+10% $26
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-68	base $-137	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Edgeview Dr Hendersonville, TN	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,330	$1.26	23d	1	0.41mi
257 Indian Lake Blvd Hendersonville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	929	$2,330	$2.51	6d	22	0.58mi
350 Old Shackle Island Rd Hendersonville, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0	945	$1,599	$1.69	16d	7	0.62mi
316 N Birchwood Dr Hendersonville, TN	3.0	2.0	1825	$1,995	$1.09	25d	1	0.64mi
245 Indian Lake Blvd Hendersonville, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	973	$2,103	$2.16	3d	27	0.66mi
183 Sumner Meadows Ln Hendersonville, TN	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,985	$1.64	16d	1	0.81mi
103 Nauta Ct Hendersonville, TN	3.0	1.0	1144	$2,000	$1.75	45d	1	0.92mi
122 Brookside Dr Hendersonville, TN	4.0	2.0	1275	$2,200	$1.73	16d	1	0.99mi
122 Brookside Dr Hendersonville, TN	4.0	2.0	1275	$2,200	$1.73	45d	1	0.99mi
212 New Shackle Island Rd Hendersonville, TN	3.0	1.5	1116	$2,013	$1.80	45d	1	1.04mi
231 New Shackle Island Rd Hendersonville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	830	$1,639	$1.97	6d	6	1.15mi
109 Cinema Dr Hendersonville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	858	$2,626	$3.06	9d	4	1.16mi
119 Sanders Ferry Rd Unit 7 Hendersonville, TN	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,585	$1.55	25d	1	1.25mi
109 Shady View Dr Hendersonville, TN	3.0	2.0	1161	$1,700	$1.46	25d	1	1.33mi
130 Cinema Dr Hendersonville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	919	$1,875	$2.04	3d	7	1.37mi
113 Cages Rd #2 Hendersonville, TN	2.0	2.5	1518	$1,700	$1.12	45d	1	1.44mi
108 Crestmont Dr Hendersonville, TN	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,495	$1.35	45d	1	1.48mi
108 Ryan Dr Hendersonville, TN	3.0	1.5	1218	$1,990	$1.63	16d	1	1.49mi
164 Hillside Dr Hendersonville, TN	3.0	1.5	1053	$1,975	$1.88	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,999 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,999 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,999 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,999 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,999 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,999 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $269,999 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,950 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,950 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $274,950 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $274,950 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,950 Active Under Contract 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,950 Active Under Contract 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,950 Active Under Contract 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,950 Active Under Contract 94 DOM
16. 2026-04-25
    price $274,950 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Charming one-story home offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a functional layout. Enjoy outdoor living on the back porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

17. 2026-03-26
    price $280,000 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Charming one-story home offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a functional layout. Enjoy outdoor living on the back porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

18. 2026-03-20
    status Active 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Charming one-story home offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a functional layout. Enjoy outdoor living on the back porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

19. 2026-03-17
    historical Active Under Contract 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Charming one-story home offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a functional layout. Enjoy outdoor living on the back porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

20. 2026-02-27
    listed $289,900 Active 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Charming one-story home offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a functional layout. Enjoy outdoor living on the back porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

21. 2022-09-16
    soldstatus $283,000 Closed 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    This Hendersonville home is nothing short of cozy. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a large den/bonus room with laundry room, and a kitchen that is open with lots of natural light. The back yard is spacious and backs up to Drakes Creek Park. Less than a mile to George A Whitten Elementary and just over a mile to The Streets of Indian Lake, the location is central and convenient to just about anything in Hendersonville.

22. 2022-09-16
    soldstatus $283,000

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    This Hendersonville home is nothing short of cozy. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a large den/bonus room with laundry room, and a kitchen that is open with lots of natural light. The back yard is spacious and backs up to Drakes Creek Park. Less than a mile to George A Whitten Elementary and just over a mile to The Streets of Indian Lake, the location is central and convenient to just about anything in Hendersonville.

23. 2022-08-24
    historical Active Under Contract 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    This Hendersonville home is nothing short of cozy. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a large den/bonus room with laundry room, and a kitchen that is open with lots of natural light. The back yard is spacious and backs up to Drakes Creek Park. Less than a mile to George A Whitten Elementary and just over a mile to The Streets of Indian Lake, the location is central and convenient to just about anything in Hendersonville.

24. 2022-08-22
    price $299,000 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    This Hendersonville home is nothing short of cozy. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a large den/bonus room with laundry room, and a kitchen that is open with lots of natural light. The back yard is spacious and backs up to Drakes Creek Park. Less than a mile to George A Whitten Elementary and just over a mile to The Streets of Indian Lake, the location is central and convenient to just about anything in Hendersonville.

25. 2022-08-17
    price $319,000 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    This Hendersonville home is nothing short of cozy. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a large den/bonus room with laundry room, and a kitchen that is open with lots of natural light. The back yard is spacious and backs up to Drakes Creek Park. Less than a mile to George A Whitten Elementary and just over a mile to The Streets of Indian Lake, the location is central and convenient to just about anything in Hendersonville.

26. 2022-08-12
    price $328,900 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    This Hendersonville home is nothing short of cozy. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a large den/bonus room with laundry room, and a kitchen that is open with lots of natural light. The back yard is spacious and backs up to Drakes Creek Park. Less than a mile to George A Whitten Elementary and just over a mile to The Streets of Indian Lake, the location is central and convenient to just about anything in Hendersonville.

27. 2022-08-11
    price $330,900 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    This Hendersonville home is nothing short of cozy. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a large den/bonus room with laundry room, and a kitchen that is open with lots of natural light. The back yard is spacious and backs up to Drakes Creek Park. Less than a mile to George A Whitten Elementary and just over a mile to The Streets of Indian Lake, the location is central and convenient to just about anything in Hendersonville.

28. 2022-08-09
    listed $329,900 Active 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    This Hendersonville home is nothing short of cozy. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a large den/bonus room with laundry room, and a kitchen that is open with lots of natural light. The back yard is spacious and backs up to Drakes Creek Park. Less than a mile to George A Whitten Elementary and just over a mile to The Streets of Indian Lake, the location is central and convenient to just about anything in Hendersonville.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,145 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,145 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$2,145
• − Insurance: −$2,016
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$6,394
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,535
• After-tax cash flow: $-107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumner County
• NCES district ID: 4704020
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,998
• Composite: 36.44/100
• National rank: #4667
• State rank: #12 of 139 in TN

Livability — Hendersonville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #7730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hendersonville, TN
• County: Sumner County · 196,654 people
• City population: 73,522
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 73,522
• Household income: $101,850
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1258.0

Population outlook (Sumner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 208,284 people
• By 2030: 223,902 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 253,892 · +21.9%
• By 2050: 281,199 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 344,866 · +65.6%
• By 2100: 384,369 · +84.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 28.5% · R 70.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.9pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+38.6 2016: R+45.0 2012: R+42.0 2008: R+34.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -251.80%
• Current HPI: 289.6615
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $274,950 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $280,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $289,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $283,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-16 Sold (MLS) $283,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-24 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-22 Price Changed $299,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-17 Price Changed $319,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-12 Price Changed $328,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-11 Price Changed $330,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-09 Listed $329,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,145 · +56.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.