1405 Mariposa Cir #102 · Vineyards, FL 34105

$375,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,558 sqft · Condo · 146 Days on market

Built 2006 $450/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated seller! With a full-price offer, the seller is willing to contribute $10,000 toward the buyer’s closing costs. A completely remodeled roof and a water heater purchased just 2 years ago. Well maintained and move-in ready—ideal for both homeowners and investors. Enjoy easy living in the heart of Naples. This well-maintained, located in the gated community of Mariposa, surrounded by peaceful preserves. Featuring 2 bedrooms + Den, 2 bathroom, and a flexible loft area, it offers comfort and functionality in a top-rated school district. Brand-new air conditioning system (2026). Residents enjoy access to a community pool, clubhouse, and fitness center, with convenient access

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fitness center
• Clubhouse

Tags

• REMODELED ROOF
• WATER HEATER
• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Taxes (latest reported): $1,224.24 (2024)
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Condo management); Master HOA fee $450 monthly (total annual recurring fees $5,400); One-time fees $150; HOA maintenance covers cable, internet/Wi‑Fi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior pest control, reserves, sewer, street lights, and trash removal; Community amenities: clubhouse, community pool, community room, exercise room; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 assigned parking spaces (driveway, guest); Attached 1-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise (1–3) carriage/coach building; Zero lot line; Rear exposure faces south; Located in the Whippoorwill development (Mariposa sub‑community)
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Tile roof; Built in 2006; Foundation: (information not provided)
• Exterior features: Patio; Paved road access; Landscaped area view; Irrigation (central); Shutters (manual)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire / high-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Pantry; Dining area in living room; Den / study; Screened lanai/porch; Auto garage door; Split bedroom floor plan; One ceiling fan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-818/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $365k (2.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $375k).
• Recommended offer: $330k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#679 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Osceola Elementary School (math 78% / reading 74%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 621 students, 32% FRL); Pine Ridge Middle School (math 74% / reading 70%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 832 students, 31% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 55% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 71% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 334 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,764/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $330,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-72,744
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-98,908
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34105

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,764 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$450
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$790
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,850

Max offer price $365,139

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $61	+0% $-68	+5% $-198	+10% $-327
Rent	-10% $-365	-5% $-217	+0% $-68	+5% $81	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $121	-0.5pp $27	base $-68	+0.5pp $-165	+1.0pp $-264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1299 Verde Dr Unit 1503 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$4,200	$2.41	15d	1	0.16mi
1303 Verde Dr Unit 1603 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1877	$2,500	$1.33	15d	1	0.18mi
1256 Carpazi Ct Unit 502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	15d	1	0.21mi
1256 Carpazi Ct #502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	25d	1	0.21mi
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	23d	1	0.27mi
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	25d	1	0.27mi
1205 Reserve Way #302 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$2,300	$1.86	15d	1	0.30mi
1115 Reserve Ct Unit 2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	15d	1	0.32mi
1105 Reserve Ct #206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	15d	1	0.33mi
1105 Reserve Ct #307 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,995	$1.61	15d	1	0.33mi
1220 Reserve Way #305 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1059	$1,950	$1.84	25d	1	0.36mi
1180 Reserve Way Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,000	$2.10	25d	2	0.40mi
1180 Reserve Way Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,990	$2.18	15d	3	0.40mi
1190 Reserve Way #304 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1059	$2,900	$2.74	25d	1	0.41mi
12839 Carrington Cir Unit 8-102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2063	$6,500	$3.15	25d	1	0.51mi
13078 Pembroke Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2024	$6,500	$3.21	25d	1	0.53mi
12914 Brynwood Preserve Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1720	$7,000	$4.07	25d	1	0.55mi
12902 Brynwood Preserve Ln Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$7,500	$3.57	25d	1	0.58mi
12832 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$5,250	$3.06	15d	1	0.63mi
6542 Marbella Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2144	$6,250	$2.92	25d	1	0.70mi
3105 La Costa Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,870	$1.78	15d	20	0.94mi
104 Siena Way #1407 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$7,000	$4.83	25d	1	0.99mi
106 Siena Way #1508 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$4,500	$3.18	25d	1	1.00mi
103 Tuscana Ct #1107 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1412	$5,000	$3.54	25d	1	1.03mi
155 Vintage Cir #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$5,000	$3.33	15d	1	1.05mi
172 Vintage Cir #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1774	$5,195	$2.93	15d	1	1.06mi
102 Tuscana Ct #901 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1631	$2,300	$1.41	25d	1	1.07mi
6025 Chardonnay Ln Unit 1Unit 102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,195	$1.55	25d	1	1.08mi
230 Vintage Cir Unit A-404 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1290	$5,000	$3.88	15d	1	1.09mi
3099 Lancaster Dr Unit 7-701 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2160	$10,000	$4.63	25d	1	1.09mi
210 Vintage Cir Unit C401 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$6,500	$4.28	15d	1	1.13mi
200 Vintage Cir Unit D304 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,800	$1.88	15d	1	1.15mi
3255 Tamara Dr #4 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,500	$1.74	15d	1	1.16mi
3250 Cypress Glen Way Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1242	$3,300	$2.66	23d	3	1.19mi
3250 Cypress Glen Way Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1191	$3,488	$2.93	25d	2	1.19mi
152 Napa Ridge Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1775	$7,000	$3.94	25d	1	1.21mi
3268 Amanda Ln #3 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,350	$1.64	15d	1	1.21mi
3225 Cypress Glen Way #105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1191	$2,900	$2.43	25d	1	1.23mi
224 Via Perignon Unit 5-4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	2085	$6,000	$2.88	23d	1	1.23mi
116 Fountain Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$4,500	$2.88	25d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $450 · $5,400/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $375,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $375,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   remarks 687-char remark
7. 2026-06-03
   listed $375,000 Active 138 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$5,625
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,613
• − Management: −$3,613
• − HOA: −$5,400
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$6,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,650
• After-tax cash flow: $832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vineyards

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #679
• US rank: #14101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,441
• Household income: $92,214
• Rent vs Own: 29.7% rent · 70.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.65%
• Current HPI: 283.9084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $375,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $390,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $400,000 NAPLESMLS