5100 N Highway 99 #17 · Morada, CA 95212

$125,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 1976 Average condition Est $114k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new home! Located in the sought after Shadow Lake Park! ALL AGE PARK! Features a newer ROOF! Newer CENTRAL HEAT & AIR CONDITIONING! It's tastefully upgraded in the kitchen and has a BEAUTIFUL WALK-IN MASTER SHOWER! It's an affordable home when most of the market is difficult to afford. Perfect for downsizing but still has great SQFT at 1,440! HUGE front room for family gatherings, holidays, etc! It's located on a LARGE LOT. The lot size makes it feel like a residential lot! Plenty of parking, garden, or whatever you envision! Comes with a storage shed that will be staying! The park has a laundry room, 2 pools, and a duck pond. Large covered back porch perfect for enjo

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Laundry room
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN MASTER SHOWER
• LARGE LOT
• STORAGE SHED
• LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present but property marked No)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Attached parking
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double wide; Built in 1976
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing gas oven; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Kitchen/Family combo and formal dining area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tile and shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Great room living area; Island and stone countertops in the kitchen; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room with hookups; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $126k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $126k).
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 2.7% in Morada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#596 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $870 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.28%
• DSCR: 3.50
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $113,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5100 N Hwy 99 #159	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$100,000	$69	94
4900 N Hwy 99 #65	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$94,000	$65	88
4900 N Highway 99 #185	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$55,000	$38	87
5100 N Highway 99 #194	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$129,900	$97	82
5100 N Highway 99 #172	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	18mo	$50,000	$35	80
5100 N Highway 99 #8	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	8mo	$130,000	$83	74
4900 N Highway 99 #197	0.00mi	2/3.0	1,536 (+7%)	14mo	$145,000	$94	73
5100 N Hwy 99 #182	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	10mo	$164,000	$105	73
9454 N Highway 99 #20	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	13mo	$80,000	$62	70
4900 Hwy 99 #199	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	19mo	$118,000	$74	65
5100 N Highway 99 #103	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+10%)	17mo	$125,000	$79	64
5100 N Highway 99 #202	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,625 (+13%)	12mo	$160,000	$98	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $84,955
• Equity at exit: $18,772

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.95×
• Total profit: $209,775
• Equity at exit: $10,886

Cash invested: $35,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95212

• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,194 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$157 /mo · $1,888/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $1,653

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,101

Max offer price $125,900

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,475
• Closing costs: $3,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3461 Sina Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1335	$3,000	$2.25	43d	1	0.80mi
4006 Angelina Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1775	$2,750	$1.55	2d	1	0.86mi
10424 Skynyrd Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1509	$4,500	$2.98	23d	1	0.93mi
10400 Skynyrd Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1342	$4,500	$3.35	14d	1	0.94mi
4142 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1063	$2,314	$2.18	21d	1	1.34mi
4030 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	811	$2,340	$2.88	2d	26	1.39mi
9326 Lembert Dome Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,645	$1.78	2d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 695-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $125,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,052
• − Property taxes: −$1,888
• − Insurance: −$630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,067
• − Management: −$3,067
• − Depreciation: −$3,663
• Taxable income: $18,966
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,552
• After-tax cash flow: $15,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in average condition with some cosmetic updates needed, particularly to the exterior siding. It has a newer roof and HVAC system, making it a good investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior siding — Weathered appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and resale value
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Morada

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #19273

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morada, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,437
• Household income: $111,720
• Rent vs Own: 22.2% rent · 77.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 43% Hispanic / Latino 24% White 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 9%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.93%
• Current HPI: 265.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B