Is 5100 N Highway 99 #17 in Morada, CA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C with a 18.5% cap rate and $1,115/mo modeled cash flow at a $110,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 5100 N Highway 99 #17?

The modeled cap rate is 18.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,373/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C Composite 59.21

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +22.5/30.0
ARV discount +13.5/15.0
1% rule +7.5/10.0
DSCR +7.5/10.0
Livability +3.0/5.0
Condition / age +2.8/5.0
Schools +2.6/10.0
Appreciation +2.5/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Manufactured-home adj. -5.1

$110,000

5100 N Highway 99 #17 · Morada, CA 95212

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 106 Days on market

Manufactured home likely 55+ (park) Built 1976 Average condition $76/sqft · 13% below area Est $127k · 13% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new home! Located in the sought after Shadow Lake Park! ALL AGE PARK! Features a newer ROOF! Newer CENTRAL HEAT & AIR CONDITIONING! It's tastefully upgraded in the kitchen and has a BEAUTIFUL WALK-IN MASTER SHOWER! The washer and dryer art included in the sale of this home! It's an affordable home when most of the market is difficult to afford. Perfect for downsizing but still has great SQFT at 1,440! HUGE front room for family gatherings, holidays, etc! It's located on a LARGE LOT. The lot size makes it feel like a residential lot! Plenty of parking, garden, or whatever you envision! Comes with a storage shed that will be staying!

Key facts

Newer roof
Laundry room
Upgraded kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
Recommended offer: $100k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 2.8% in Morada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 60/100 on livability (#596 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Davis Elementary (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,335 of 1,571 statewide, top 85%, 327 students, 85% FRL); Morada Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #376 of 498 statewide, top 76%, 746 students, 84% FRL); Ronald E. Mcnair High (math 24% / reading 50%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,768 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 59% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 98d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,100 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 2.16% ✓
Cap rate: 18.45%
Cash-on-cash: 43.43%
DSCR: 2.93
GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $127,000
List price: $110,000
Delta: -9.45%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5100 N Hwy 99 #24	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$124,000	$86	98
5100 N Highway 99 #141	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$127,000	$88	93
5100 N Hwy 99 #159	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$100,000	$69	91
4900 N Hwy 99 #65	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$94,000	$65	85
4900 N Highway 99 #185	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	19mo	$55,000	$38	84
5100 N Highway 99 #194	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	6mo	$129,900	$97	79
5100 N Highway 99 #8	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	11mo	$130,000	$83	72
5100 N Hwy 99 #182	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	13mo	$164,000	$105	70
4900 N Highway 99 #197	0.00mi	2/3.0	1,536 (+7%)	17mo	$145,000	$94	70
9454 N Highway 99 #20	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	16mo	$80,000	$62	67
5100 N Highway 99 #103	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+10%)	20mo	$125,000	$79	62
5100 N Highway 99 #202	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,625 (+13%)	15mo	$160,000	$98	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 40.3%
Equity multiple: 2.73×
Total profit: $53,207
Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

IRR: 46.6%
Equity multiple: 5.48×
Total profit: $137,896
Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 6 active · 6 under contract
Months of supply: 5.1 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $114,500 ($95/sqft)
Median days on market: 138 d
This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -7.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 95212

Active inventory: 234
Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,373 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$577
Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
Insurance: −$46
HOA: −$0
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
Net cashflow: $1,115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,191	-5% $1,153	+0% $1,115	+5% $1,077	+10% $1,039
Rent	-10% $927	-5% $1,021	+0% $1,115	+5% $1,208	+10% $1,302
Rate	-1.0pp $1,170	-0.5pp $1,143	base $1,115	+0.5pp $1,086	+1.0pp $1,057

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $27,500
Closing costs: $3,300
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3461 Sina Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1335	$3,000	$2.25	139d	1	0.80mi
4006 Angelina Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1775	$2,750	$1.55	98d	1	0.86mi
10424 Skynyrd Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1509	$4,500	$2.98	119d	1	0.93mi
10400 Skynyrd Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1342	$4,500	$3.35	110d	1	0.94mi
4142 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1063	$2,291	$2.16	78d	1	1.34mi
4142 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	826	$2,189	$2.65	0d	17	1.34mi
4142 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1063	$2,314	$2.18	117d	1	1.34mi
4030 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	1259	$2,610	$2.07	0d	26	1.39mi
9326 Lembert Dome Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,645	$1.78	98d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: No homeowners associationNot a senior communityLand lease: No (listed land lease amount present but property marked No)

Exterior

Parking: Off-street parkingAttached parking
Utilities: Natural gas connectedPublic waterPublic sewer220 volts available in laundry
Home design: Manufactured home located in a parkDouble wideBuilt in 1976
Construction: Aluminum skirtingComposition roof
Exterior features: Front yard

Interior

Kitchen: Free standing gas rangeFree standing gas ovenHood over rangeDishwasherMicrowaveKitchen/Family combo and formal dining area
Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
Flooring: CarpetTileLinoleum
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tile and shower stall(s)
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Great room living areaIsland and stone countertops in the kitchenStorage area
Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room with hookups220V outlet in laundry

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $110,000 Active 106 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $110,000 Active 105 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $110,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $110,000 Active 103 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $110,000 Active 102 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $110,000 Active 101 DOM
2026-09-17

pricedays on market $110,000 Active 100 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $115,000 Active 99 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $115,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $115,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $115,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $115,000 Active 95 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $115,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $115,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $115,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $115,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $115,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $115,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $115,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $115,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $115,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $115,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $115,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $115,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $115,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $115,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $115,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-20

pricedays on market $115,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $119,500 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $119,500 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $119,500 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $119,500 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $119,500 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $119,500 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $119,500 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $119,500 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $119,500 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $119,500 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $119,500 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $119,500 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $119,500 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $119,500 Active 58 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $119,500 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $119,500 Active 56 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $119,500 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $119,500 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $119,500 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-30

pricedays on market $119,500 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $119,975 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $119,975 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 1/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,479
− Mortgage interest: −$6,162
− Property taxes: −$1,650
− Insurance: −$550
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,278
− Management: −$2,278
− Depreciation: −$3,200
Taxable income: $12,361

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,967
After-tax cash flow: $10,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,200–$21,600 screening

This manufactured home is in average condition with some cosmetic updates needed, particularly to the exterior siding. It has a newer roof and HVAC system, making it a good investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

Minor Exterior siding — Weathered appearance

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and resale value ↑
Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Davis Elementary F CA #1,335/1,571 Nat'l #35,051/41,679 Middle Morada Middle F CA #376/498 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Ronald E. Mcnair High F CA #578/1,170 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Lodi Unified
NCES district ID: 0622230
Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
Median HH income: $57,165
Composite: 26.84/100
National rank: #7108
State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Morada

Score: 60/100
State rank: #596
US rank: #19273

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Morada, CA
County: San Joaquin County · 796,965 people
Metro: Stockton, CA
Population (ZIP): 28,437
Household income: $111,720
Rent vs Own: 22.2% rent · 77.8% own
Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 796,965 people
By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity: Asian 43% Hispanic / Latino 24% White 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Native American 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 9%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -188.93%
Current HPI: 265.3844
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Stockton, CA
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	27	$1,492B
#4 Apple Cupertino $391.0B #7 Alphabet Mountain View $350.0B #22 Meta Platforms Menlo Park $164.5B #31 NVIDIA Santa Clara $130.5B #83 Cisco Systems San Jose $53.8B #84 HP Inc Palo Alto $53.6B #86 Intel Santa Clara $53.1B #88 Broadcom Palo Alto $52.4B #109 Qualcomm San Diego $39.0B #112 Salesforce San Francisco $38.4B #140 Applied Materials Santa Clara $27.2B #155 AMD Santa Clara $22.7B #330 Intuit Mountain View $16.3B #242 Lam Research Fremont $15.8B #252 Western Digital San Jose $13.0B #366 ServiceNow Santa Clara $11.0B #282 KLA Corporation Milpitas $10.8B #405 Workday Pleasanton $7.9B #302 Arista Networks Santa Clara $6.7B #365 NetApp San Jose $6.5B #352 Synopsys Sunnyvale $6.1B #331 Autodesk San Francisco $6.0B #395 Juniper Networks Sunnyvale $5.6B #403 Cadence Design Systems San Jose $4.6B #430 Veeva Systems Pleasanton $2.4B #397 Teradata San Diego $1.8B #461 Dolby Laboratories San Francisco $1.3B
Financial Services	3	$174B
#33 Wells Fargo San Francisco $125.4B #272 Visa San Francisco $35.9B #308 LPL Financial Holdings San Diego $12.3B
Retail	3	$44B
#162 Ross Stores Dublin $20.9B #231 Gap San Francisco $15.6B #323 Williams-Sonoma San Francisco $7.7B
Insurance	3	$26B
#241 Pacific Life Newport Beach $13.4B #293 First American Financial Santa Ana $7.7B #482 Mercury General Los Angeles $5.2B
Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
#46 Walt Disney Burbank $91.4B #263 Live Nation Entertainment Beverly Hills $23.2B
Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B
#126 Amgen Thousand Oaks $33.3B #137 Gilead Sciences Foster City $28.4B

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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