5100 N Highway 99 #17 · Morada, CA 95212

$99,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 152 Days on market

Manufactured home likely 55+ (park) Built 1976 Average condition $69/sqft · 21% below area Est $127k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.3

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new home! Located in the sought after Shadow Lake Park! ALL AGE PARK! Features a newer ROOF! Newer CENTRAL HEAT & AIR CONDITIONING! It's tastefully upgraded in the kitchen and has a BEAUTIFUL WALK-IN MASTER SHOWER! The washer and dryer art included in the sale of this home! It's an affordable home when most of the market is difficult to afford. Perfect for downsizing but still has great SQFT at 1,440! HUGE front room for family gatherings, holidays, etc! It's located on a LARGE LOT. The lot size makes it feel like a residential lot! Plenty of parking, garden, or whatever you envision! Comes with a storage shed that will be staying!

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Laundry room
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN MASTER SHOWER
• LARGE LOT
• STORAGE SHED
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 3.4% in Morada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#596 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Davis Elementary (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,335 of 1,571 statewide, top 85%, 327 students, 85% FRL); Morada Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #376 of 498 statewide, top 76%, 746 students, 84% FRL); Ronald E. Mcnair High (math 24% / reading 50%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,768 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 59% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 144d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $692 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,956 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.70%
• DSCR: 3.43
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,000
• List price: $99,950
• Delta: -21.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5100 N Hwy 99 #24	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$124,000	$86	96
5100 N Highway 99 #141	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$127,000	$88	92
5100 N Hwy 99 #159	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$100,000	$69	90
4900 N Hwy 99 #65	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$94,000	$65	84
4900 N Highway 99 #185	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	20mo	$55,000	$38	83
5100 N Highway 99 #194	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	7mo	$129,900	$97	78
5100 N Highway 99 #8	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	12mo	$130,000	$83	71
5100 N Hwy 99 #182	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	14mo	$164,000	$105	69
4900 N Highway 99 #197	0.00mi	2/3.0	1,536 (+7%)	19mo	$145,000	$94	69
9454 N Highway 99 #20	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	18mo	$80,000	$62	66
5100 N Highway 99 #103	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+10%)	22mo	$125,000	$79	60
5100 N Highway 99 #202	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,625 (+13%)	17mo	$160,000	$98	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $65,097
• Equity at exit: $14,903

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $161,468
• Equity at exit: $8,642

Cash invested: $27,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.8 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $124,900 ($97/sqft)
• Median days on market: 138 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -9.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 95212

• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,489 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,499/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $1,276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,950

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,345	-5% $1,310	+0% $1,276	+5% $1,241	+10% $1,207
Rent	-10% $1,079	-5% $1,177	+0% $1,276	+5% $1,374	+10% $1,472
Rate	-1.0pp $1,326	-0.5pp $1,301	base $1,276	+0.5pp $1,250	+1.0pp $1,224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,988
• Closing costs: $2,998
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3461 Sina Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1335	$3,000	$2.25	184d	1	0.80mi
4006 Angelina Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1775	$2,750	$1.55	143d	1	0.86mi
10424 Skynyrd Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1509	$4,500	$2.98	164d	1	0.93mi
10424 Skynyrd Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1509	$4,500	$2.98	1d	1	0.93mi
10400 Skynyrd Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1342	$4,500	$3.35	155d	1	0.94mi
4142 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1063	$2,291	$2.16	123d	1	1.34mi
4142 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	826	$2,178	$2.64	0d	11	1.34mi
4142 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1063	$2,314	$2.18	162d	1	1.34mi
4030 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	1259	$2,375	$1.89	0d	15	1.39mi
9326 Lembert Dome Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,645	$1.78	143d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners associationNot a senior communityLand lease: No (listed land lease amount present but property marked No)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parkingAttached parking
• Utilities: Natural gas connectedPublic waterPublic sewer220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a parkDouble wideBuilt in 1976
• Construction: Aluminum skirtingComposition roof
• Exterior features: Front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas rangeFree standing gas ovenHood over rangeDishwasherMicrowaveKitchen/Family combo and formal dining area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: CarpetTileLinoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tile and shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Great room living areaIsland and stone countertops in the kitchenStorage area
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room with hookups220V outlet in laundry

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $99,950 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-11-08
   price $99,950 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-11-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-11-06
   days on market $100,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-11-05
   days on market $100,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-11-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $100,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $100,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $100,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $100,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-10-25
    days on market $100,000 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $100,000 Active 137 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $100,000 Active 136 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $100,000 Active 135 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $100,000 Active 134 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $100,000 Active 133 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $100,000 Active 132 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $100,000 Active 131 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $100,000 Active 130 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $100,000 Active 129 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $100,000 Active 128 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $100,000 Active 127 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $100,000 Active 126 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $100,000 Active 125 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $100,000 Active 124 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $100,000 Active 123 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $100,000 Active 122 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 121 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 120 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $100,000 Active 119 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    price $100,000 Active 118 DOM
36. 2026-10-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 118 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 117 DOM
38. 2026-10-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 116 DOM
39. 2026-10-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 115 DOM
40. 2026-10-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 114 DOM
41. 2026-09-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 113 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $110,000 Active 112 DOM
43. 2026-09-28
    days on market $110,000 Active 111 DOM
44. 2026-09-27
    days on market $110,000 Active 110 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $110,000 Active 108 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $110,000 Active 107 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $110,000 Active 106 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $110,000 Active 105 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $110,000 Active 104 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $110,000 Active 103 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,599
• − Property taxes: −$1,499
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,390
• − Management: −$2,390
• − Depreciation: −$2,908
• Taxable income: $14,586
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,501
• After-tax cash flow: $11,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,200–$21,600 screening

This manufactured home is in average condition with some cosmetic updates needed, particularly to the exterior siding. It has a newer roof and HVAC system, making it a good investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior siding — Weathered appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Davis Elementary F CA #1,335/1,571 Nat'l #35,051/41,679 Middle Morada Middle F CA #376/498 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Ronald E. Mcnair High F CA #578/1,170 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Morada

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #19273

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morada, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 796,965 people
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,437
• Household income: $111,720
• Rent vs Own: 22.2% rent · 77.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 43% Hispanic / Latino 24% White 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 9%

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Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.93%
• Current HPI: 265.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners associationNot a senior communityLand lease: No (listed land lease amount present but property marked No)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parkingAttached parking
• Utilities: Natural gas connectedPublic waterPublic sewer220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a parkDouble wideBuilt in 1976
• Construction: Aluminum skirtingComposition roof
• Exterior features: Front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas rangeFree standing gas ovenHood over rangeDishwasherMicrowaveKitchen/Family combo and formal dining area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: CarpetTileLinoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tile and shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Great room living areaIsland and stone countertops in the kitchenStorage area
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room with hookups220V outlet in laundry