40704 Guillemont Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$234,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,473 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition 4,600 sqft lot $159/sqft · 13% below area Est $275k · 15% under $154/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Modern Luxury in Audubon! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom residence, built in 2023, offers 1,500 sq. ft. of sophisticated living space in the heart of Magnolia. The bright, open-concept floor plan is designed for both relaxation and entertaining, featuring a gourmet kitchen equipped with sleek stainless-steel appliances and a spacious island. Retreat to the inviting living area, where a cozy gas fireplace adds warmth and charm. Experience the perfect blend of comfort and contemporary design. This move-in-ready gem represents a premier opportunity for homeowners seeking quality and style. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Cozy gas fireplace
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $234k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $213,395 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,852
• List price: $234,500
• Delta: -14.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40530 Tyto Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-1%)	1mo	$274,900	$188	93
40511 Tyto Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+1%)	0mo	$235,000	$158	92
40423 Gerygone Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-1%)	9mo	$289,900	$198	86
40414 Gerygone Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-1%)	11mo	$269,900	$184	84
40443 Gerygone Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+10%)	5mo	$304,900	$189	75
40431 Gerygone Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+10%)	10mo	$279,900	$173	71
40551 Berylline Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+10%)	12mo	$274,900	$170	64
40731 Barley Straw	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (+0%)	2mo	$264,990	$180	62
15230 Falco Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+12%)	12mo	$278,000	$169	62
40025 Mill Creek Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,437 (-2%)	12mo	$1,100,000	$765	61
15122 Rose Willow Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+7%)	2mo	$279,990	$178	56
40762 Barley Straw Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-10%)	2mo	$239,990	$181	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $114,743
• Equity at exit: $211,256

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.08×
• Total profit: $333,248
• Equity at exit: $455,582

Cash invested: $65,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,230
• Tax from tax record: −$415 /mo · $4,983/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,401

Max offer price $214,396

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,625
• Closing costs: $7,035
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	24d	1	0.15mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	43d	1	0.17mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	1d	40	0.36mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	43d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,500 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,500 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,500 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,500 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,500 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,500 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $234,500 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,500 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $244,500 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,500 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,500 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,500 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,500 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    price $255,000 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Welcome to Modern Luxury in Audubon! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom residence, built in 2023, offers 1,500 sq. ft. of sophisticated living space in the heart of Magnolia. The bright, open-concept floor plan is designed for both relaxation and entertaining, featuring a gourmet kitchen equipped with sleek stainless-steel appliances and a spacious island. Retreat to the inviting living area, where a cozy gas fireplace adds warmth and charm. Experience the perfect blend of comfort and contemporary design. This move-in-ready gem represents a premier opportunity for homeowners seeking quality and style. Schedule your tour today!

15. 2026-04-22
    price $265,000 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Welcome to Modern Luxury in Audubon! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom residence, built in 2023, offers 1,500 sq. ft. of sophisticated living space in the heart of Magnolia. The bright, open-concept floor plan is designed for both relaxation and entertaining, featuring a gourmet kitchen equipped with sleek stainless-steel appliances and a spacious island. Retreat to the inviting living area, where a cozy gas fireplace adds warmth and charm. Experience the perfect blend of comfort and contemporary design. This move-in-ready gem represents a premier opportunity for homeowners seeking quality and style. Schedule your tour today!

16. 2026-04-06
    price $262,500 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Welcome to Modern Luxury in Audubon! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom residence, built in 2023, offers 1,500 sq. ft. of sophisticated living space in the heart of Magnolia. The bright, open-concept floor plan is designed for both relaxation and entertaining, featuring a gourmet kitchen equipped with sleek stainless-steel appliances and a spacious island. Retreat to the inviting living area, where a cozy gas fireplace adds warmth and charm. Experience the perfect blend of comfort and contemporary design. This move-in-ready gem represents a premier opportunity for homeowners seeking quality and style. Schedule your tour today!

17. 2026-03-14
    historical $2,000
18. 2026-03-13
    listed $265,000 Active 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Welcome to Modern Luxury in Audubon! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom residence, built in 2023, offers 1,500 sq. ft. of sophisticated living space in the heart of Magnolia. The bright, open-concept floor plan is designed for both relaxation and entertaining, featuring a gourmet kitchen equipped with sleek stainless-steel appliances and a spacious island. Retreat to the inviting living area, where a cozy gas fireplace adds warmth and charm. Experience the perfect blend of comfort and contemporary design. This move-in-ready gem represents a premier opportunity for homeowners seeking quality and style. Schedule your tour today!

19. 2026-03-03
    price $2,000
20. 2026-02-10
    price $2,100
21. 2026-01-27
    listed $2,200
22. 2024-08-07
    historical $1,950
23. 2024-07-25
    price $1,950
24. 2024-05-28
    listed $2,100
25. 2024-03-05
    soldstatus
26. 2024-03-01
    soldstatus Sold 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    1 Story, 3 Bedroom, 2 1/2 Bath, Corner Direct Vent Fireplace, Open Concept Kitchen/Dining Combo, Granite Kitchen Countertops with Island, Tile Backsplash, Undermount Stainless Steel Sink with Pull Out Faucet, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances with Microwave, White 42” Upper Kitchen Cabinets, Dual Vanities in Primary Bath, Upgraded Tile Floors in Dining Room, Kitchen, Family Room and all Wet Areas, Upgraded Lighting and Trim Packages, Covered Patio, Garage Door Opener, 2” Window Blinds, Landscaping with Full Sod and Irrigation, Tech Shield Radiant Barrier, ENERGY STAR Certified Home, plus more…AVAILABLE DECEMBER/JANUARY.

27. 2024-01-30
    status Pending 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    1 Story, 3 Bedroom, 2 1/2 Bath, Corner Direct Vent Fireplace, Open Concept Kitchen/Dining Combo, Granite Kitchen Countertops with Island, Tile Backsplash, Undermount Stainless Steel Sink with Pull Out Faucet, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances with Microwave, White 42” Upper Kitchen Cabinets, Dual Vanities in Primary Bath, Upgraded Tile Floors in Dining Room, Kitchen, Family Room and all Wet Areas, Upgraded Lighting and Trim Packages, Covered Patio, Garage Door Opener, 2” Window Blinds, Landscaping with Full Sod and Irrigation, Tech Shield Radiant Barrier, ENERGY STAR Certified Home, plus more…AVAILABLE DECEMBER/JANUARY.

28. 2024-01-12
    price $264,990 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    1 Story, 3 Bedroom, 2 1/2 Bath, Corner Direct Vent Fireplace, Open Concept Kitchen/Dining Combo, Granite Kitchen Countertops with Island, Tile Backsplash, Undermount Stainless Steel Sink with Pull Out Faucet, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances with Microwave, White 42” Upper Kitchen Cabinets, Dual Vanities in Primary Bath, Upgraded Tile Floors in Dining Room, Kitchen, Family Room and all Wet Areas, Upgraded Lighting and Trim Packages, Covered Patio, Garage Door Opener, 2” Window Blinds, Landscaping with Full Sod and Irrigation, Tech Shield Radiant Barrier, ENERGY STAR Certified Home, plus more…AVAILABLE DECEMBER/JANUARY.

29. 2024-01-12
    status Active 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    1 Story, 3 Bedroom, 2 1/2 Bath, Corner Direct Vent Fireplace, Open Concept Kitchen/Dining Combo, Granite Kitchen Countertops with Island, Tile Backsplash, Undermount Stainless Steel Sink with Pull Out Faucet, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances with Microwave, White 42” Upper Kitchen Cabinets, Dual Vanities in Primary Bath, Upgraded Tile Floors in Dining Room, Kitchen, Family Room and all Wet Areas, Upgraded Lighting and Trim Packages, Covered Patio, Garage Door Opener, 2” Window Blinds, Landscaping with Full Sod and Irrigation, Tech Shield Radiant Barrier, ENERGY STAR Certified Home, plus more…AVAILABLE DECEMBER/JANUARY.

30. 2023-11-13
    status Pending 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    1 Story, 3 Bedroom, 2 1/2 Bath, Corner Direct Vent Fireplace, Open Concept Kitchen/Dining Combo, Granite Kitchen Countertops with Island, Tile Backsplash, Undermount Stainless Steel Sink with Pull Out Faucet, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances with Microwave, White 42” Upper Kitchen Cabinets, Dual Vanities in Primary Bath, Upgraded Tile Floors in Dining Room, Kitchen, Family Room and all Wet Areas, Upgraded Lighting and Trim Packages, Covered Patio, Garage Door Opener, 2” Window Blinds, Landscaping with Full Sod and Irrigation, Tech Shield Radiant Barrier, ENERGY STAR Certified Home, plus more…AVAILABLE DECEMBER/JANUARY.

31. 2023-10-26
    listed $278,990 Active 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    1 Story, 3 Bedroom, 2 1/2 Bath, Corner Direct Vent Fireplace, Open Concept Kitchen/Dining Combo, Granite Kitchen Countertops with Island, Tile Backsplash, Undermount Stainless Steel Sink with Pull Out Faucet, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances with Microwave, White 42” Upper Kitchen Cabinets, Dual Vanities in Primary Bath, Upgraded Tile Floors in Dining Room, Kitchen, Family Room and all Wet Areas, Upgraded Lighting and Trim Packages, Covered Patio, Garage Door Opener, 2” Window Blinds, Landscaping with Full Sod and Irrigation, Tech Shield Radiant Barrier, ENERGY STAR Certified Home, plus more…AVAILABLE DECEMBER/JANUARY.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,983 · $415/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,983 · $415/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,136
• − Property taxes: −$4,983
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,167
• − Management: −$2,167
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$6,822
• Taxable loss: −$5,212
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,251
• After-tax cash flow: $-115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home offers a bright, open-concept floor plan with modern amenities and a fresh exterior. Enhancements to the exterior and landscaping would further elevate its curb appeal and market value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Boosts curb appeal
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and enhances comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Boosts curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and enhances comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $262,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2024-08-07 Rental Removed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2024-07-25 Price Changed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2024-05-28 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2024-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-03-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-01-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-01-12 Price Changed $264,990 HARMLS
• 2024-01-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-11-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-10-26 Listed $278,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+58.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,983 · +66.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.