1138 Spearfish Mountain Ln · Spearfish, SD 57783

$59,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $75k · 20% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Stunning views
• Renovated inside
• Pet friendly

Tags

• RENOVATED INSIDE
• STUNNING VIEWS
• NEAR SPEARFISH CANYON
• PET FRIENDLY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Cap rate 29.4% vs local median 2.2% in Spearfish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#83 in SD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Spearfish School District 40-2 (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #32 of 59 in SD (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.70%
• DSCR: 4.68
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $74,844
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1107 Roughlock Ln	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	4mo	$66,500	$72	88
1105 Spearfish Mountain Ln	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	938 (+2%)	4mo	$61,000	$65	80
1127 Crow Peak Ln	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	15mo	$75,000	$81	66
1113 Elkhorn Peak Ln	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+4%)	20mo	$85,000	$89	60
1109 Spearfish Mountain Ln	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,050 (+14%)	17mo	$65,000	$62	56
1230 Foothills Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+14%)	22mo	$145,000	$137	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $63,918
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.97×
• Total profit: $150,477
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57783

• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $430/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $1,156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $475

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $59,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $430 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $785 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$355/yr (+$30/mo · 82.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$430
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,860
• − Management: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $13,705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,289
• After-tax cash flow: $10,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spearfish School District 40-2
• NCES district ID: 4666930
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,524
• Composite: 42.54/100
• National rank: #3199
• State rank: #32 of 59 in SD

Livability — Spearfish

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #9525

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spearfish, SD
• County: Lawrence County · 17,248 people
• City population: 17,248
• Metro: Spearfish, SD
• Population (ZIP): 17,248
• Household income: $74,844
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 580.0

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,092 people
• By 2030: 28,137 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 29,908 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 31,789 · +17.3%
• By 2075: 38,917 · +43.6%
• By 2100: 50,407 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Iranian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.3) · D 32.9% · R 64.3% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -15.4pp · 2024: -31.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.3 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.59%
• Current HPI: 206.2001
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Spearfish, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $59,900 FSBO.com
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $61,900 MRAOR
• 2025-08-26 Listed $64,900 MRAOR
• 2025-05-23 Listed $71,000 MRAOR
• 2025-05-23 Listed $71,000 BHMLS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $430 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.