Aspen Plan · Pearland, TX 77581

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 489 Days on market

Manufactured home Excellent condition $850/mo HOA · 57% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -2.6

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing The Aspen!! If you're looking for luxury living at an affordable price, this is the home for you. This move in ready home comes with brand-new stainless-steel appliances, an 8x10 storage shed, full landscaping package, 10-year structural warranty, and access to all of the community amenities! Residents here at The Landing at Pearland are allowed to extend their decks, add an awning or carport, add a fence, or even extended their shed or driveway if they please! You will love the cozy feel of the Aspen model, come check it out today!!

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Storage shed
• Landscaping package

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• STORAGE SHED
• LANDSCAPING PACKAGE
• STRUCTURAL WARRANTY
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

🏗️ New construction. The $119,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $150,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-705 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $48k (59.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (59.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 0.7% vs local median 3.1% in Pearland — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rustic Oak El (math 52% / reading 59%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 674 students, 31% FRL); Pearland J H East (math 61% / reading 62%, grade B+, #141 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 848 students, 34% FRL); Pearland H S (math 58% / reading 64%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 3,261 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 508 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 67d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 489 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 57% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,051 (59.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 489 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.13%
• DSCR: 0.10
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,000
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -20.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17807 County Rd 127	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,147 (-10%)	6mo	$335,000	$292	63
401 Castlelake Dr	1.50mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-2%)	5mo	$270,000	$215	58
210 Brigadoon Ln	1.27mi	3/1.5	1,304 (+2%)	5mo	$229,900	$176	56
510 Brandywyne Dr	1.34mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+7%)	3mo	$271,000	$199	52
802 E Stadium Ct	1.21mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+10%)	0mo	$214,000	$152	48
307 Bellmar Ln	1.31mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,220 (-5%)	5mo	$264,900	$217	44
536 Castlelake Dr	1.30mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-13%)	4mo	$225,000	$202	41
103 Brigadoon Ln	1.39mi	3/2.0	1,441 (+13%)	6mo	$265,000	$184	39
304 Avondale Ln	1.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,424 (+11%)	4mo	$260,000	$183	38
501 Bellmar Ln	1.28mi	3/1.5	1,049 (-18%)	1mo	$235,000	$224	37
415 Bellmar Ln	1.28mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-20%)	6mo	$224,900	$220	35
1809 Oak Gate Cir	1.39mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+22%)	7mo	$324,999	$207	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -57.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-68,725
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.76×
• Total profit: $-115,782
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active
• Median asking: $110,400 ($96/sqft)
• Median days on market: 445 d
• This list price: 69% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +22.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77581

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 508
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,496 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$850
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-705

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,388

Max offer price $48,051

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-601	-5% $-653	+0% $-705	+5% $-756	+10% $-808
Rent	-10% $-823	-5% $-764	+0% $-705	+5% $-645	+10% $-586
Rate	-1.0pp $-629	-0.5pp $-666	base $-705	+0.5pp $-743	+1.0pp $-783

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
122 Mooney Rd Unit 122MOO Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,649	$1.36	67d	1	0.07mi
130 Cirrus Cir Unit 130CIR Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,699	$1.26	45d	1	0.21mi
2243 County Road 130 Unit 2243 3 Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,700	$1.48	11d	1	0.42mi
12211 Main St #230 Alvin, TX	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,650	$1.41	0d	1	1.32mi
500 Stoneledge Dr Friendswood, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,895	$1.49	83d	1	1.34mi
500 Stoneledge Dr Friendswood, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,995	$1.57	120d	1	1.34mi
809 Lochmoor Ln Friendswood, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,883	$1.19	74d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail $850/mo · $10,200/yr

• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $119,900 Active 489 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $119,900 Active 488 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $119,900 Active 487 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 486 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $119,900 Active 485 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $119,900 Active 484 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 483 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 482 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 481 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $119,900 Active 480 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $119,900 Active 479 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $119,900 Active 478 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $119,900 Active 477 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $119,900 Active 476 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 470 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $119,900 Active 469 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 467 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 465 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $119,900 Active 463 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $119,900 Active 462 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $119,900 Active 461 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $119,900 Active 459 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $119,900 Active 458 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $119,900 Active 457 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $119,900 Active 456 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $119,900 Active 455 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $119,900 Active 454 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $119,900 Active 453 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $119,900 Active 452 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $119,900 Active 451 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $119,900 Active 450 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $119,900 Active 449 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $119,900 Active 448 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $119,900 Active 447 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $119,900 Active 446 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $119,900 Active 445 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $119,900 Active 444 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $119,900 Active 443 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 442 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $119,900 Active 440 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 439 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $119,900 Active 438 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 437 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 434 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 432 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $119,900 Active 431 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $119,900 Active 429 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $119,900 Active 427 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $119,900 Active 426 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $119,900 Active 425 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,436
• − Management: −$1,436
• − HOA: −$10,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$10,883
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,612
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern appliances and a clean layout. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to maximize both resale and rental value with minimal investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — This can increase the home's appeal for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — This can increase the home's appeal and potentially increase its value over time. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rustic Oak El C TX #587/4,322 Nat'l #9,513/41,679 Middle Pearland J H East B+ TX #141/1,662 Nat'l #1,620/14,009 High Pearland H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834440
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,091
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #1430
• State rank: #47 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,332
• Household income: $111,139
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 20% Black 10% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.56%
• Current HPI: 244.7942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-23 Listed $119,900 Zillow