Is Aspen Plan in Pearland, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 0.2% cap rate and $-758/mo modeled cash flow at a $119,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Aspen Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 0.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,428/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 29.89

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +5.9/10.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
1% rule +4.5/10.0
Livability +4.0/5.0
Rent growth +3.2/5.0
Appreciation +2.5/10.0
Cash flow +0.0/30.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Manufactured-home adj. -2.6

$119,900

Aspen Plan · Pearland, TX 77581

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 534 Days on market

Manufactured home Excellent condition $850/mo HOA · 60% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing The Aspen!! If you're looking for luxury living at an affordable price, this is the home for you. This move in ready home comes with brand-new stainless-steel appliances, an 8x10 storage shed, full landscaping package, 10-year structural warranty, and access to all of the community amenities! Residents here at The Landing at Pearland are allowed to extend their decks, add an awning or carport, add a fence, or even extended their shed or driveway if they please! You will love the cozy feel of the Aspen model, come check it out today!!

Key facts

Community amenities
Storage shed
Landscaping package

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-758 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $40k (66.4% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
Recommended offer: $40k (66.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 0.2% vs local median 3.1% in Pearland — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Rustic Oak El (math 52% / reading 59%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 674 students, 31% FRL); Pearland J H East (math 61% / reading 62%, grade B+, #141 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 848 students, 34% FRL); Pearland H S (math 58% / reading 64%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 3,261 students, 36% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 568 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 57d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 534 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: HOA is 60% of rent.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,294 (66.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 534 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 66% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.95% ✗
Cap rate: 0.23%
Cash-on-cash: -21.66%
DSCR: 0.04
GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $150,000
List price: $119,900
Delta: -20.07%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17807 County Rd 127	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,147 (-10%)	8mo	$335,000	$292	62
401 Castlelake Dr	1.50mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-2%)	6mo	$270,000	$215	56
210 Brigadoon Ln	1.27mi	3/1.5	1,304 (+2%)	6mo	$229,900	$176	54
1220 Chelsea Ln	1.29mi	3/2.0	1,171 (-8%)	0mo	$229,900	$196	50
510 Brandywyne Dr	1.34mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+7%)	4mo	$271,000	$199	50
802 E Stadium Ct	1.21mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+10%)	2mo	$214,000	$152	47
307 Bellmar Ln	1.31mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,220 (-5%)	7mo	$264,900	$217	43
536 Castlelake Dr	1.30mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-13%)	5mo	$225,000	$202	39
103 Brigadoon Ln	1.39mi	3/2.0	1,441 (+13%)	7mo	$265,000	$184	38
304 Avondale Ln	1.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,424 (+11%)	5mo	$260,000	$183	37
501 Bellmar Ln	1.28mi	3/1.5	1,049 (-18%)	2mo	$235,000	$224	36
415 Bellmar Ln	1.28mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-20%)	8mo	$224,900	$220	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -61.4%
Equity multiple: -0.72×
Total profit: $-72,136
Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

IRR: —
Equity multiple: -1.93×
Total profit: $-123,136
Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 16 active
Median asking: $110,400 ($96/sqft)
Median days on market: 490 d
This list price: 69% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +22.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77581

Home prices YoY: -29.1%
Rents YoY: 2.9%
Active inventory: 568
Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,428 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$787
Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
Insurance: −$62
HOA: −$850
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
Net cashflow: $-758

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,388

Max offer price $40,294

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-654	-5% $-706	+0% $-758	+5% $-810	+10% $-862
Rent	-10% $-871	-5% $-815	+0% $-758	+5% $-702	+10% $-645
Rate	-1.0pp $-683	-0.5pp $-720	base $-758	+0.5pp $-797	+1.0pp $-837

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $37,500
Closing costs: $4,500
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
122 Mooney Rd Unit 122MOO Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,649	$1.36	112d	1	0.07mi
109 Cirrus Cir Unit 109CIR Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,649	$1.36	10d	1	0.20mi
130 Cirrus Cir Unit 130CIR Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,699	$1.26	90d	1	0.21mi
2245 County Road 130 Unit Labs Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	10d	1	0.41mi
2245 County Road 130 Unit Labs Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	14d	1	0.41mi
2243 County Road 130 Unit 2243 3 Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,700	$1.48	56d	1	0.42mi
1819 Barretts Glen Dr Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,400	$1.46	6d	1	1.27mi
12211 Main St #230 Alvin, TX	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,574	$1.34	0d	1	1.32mi
500 Stoneledge Dr Friendswood, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,995	$1.57	165d	1	1.34mi
500 Stoneledge Dr Friendswood, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,895	$1.49	128d	1	1.34mi
1103 Lochmoor Ln Pearland, TX	3.0	2.5	1699	$2,312	$1.36	21d	1	1.43mi
809 Lochmoor Ln Friendswood, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,883	$1.19	119d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail $850/mo · $10,200/yr

Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $119,900 Active 534 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $119,900 Active 533 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $119,900 Active 532 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $119,900 Active 531 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $119,900 Active 530 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $119,900 Active 528 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $119,900 Active 527 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $119,900 Active 526 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $119,900 Active 525 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $119,900 Active 524 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $119,900 Active 523 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $119,900 Active 522 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $119,900 Active 521 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $119,900 Active 520 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $119,900 Active 519 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $119,900 Active 518 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $119,900 Active 517 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $119,900 Active 516 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $119,900 Active 515 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $119,900 Active 514 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $119,900 Active 513 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $119,900 Active 512 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $119,900 Active 511 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $119,900 Active 510 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $119,900 Active 509 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $119,900 Active 508 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $119,900 Active 507 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $119,900 Active 506 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $119,900 Active 505 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $119,900 Active 504 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $119,900 Active 503 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $119,900 Active 502 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $119,900 Active 501 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $119,900 Active 500 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $119,900 Active 499 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $119,900 Active 498 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $119,900 Active 497 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $119,900 Active 496 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $119,900 Active 495 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $119,900 Active 494 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $119,900 Active 493 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $119,900 Active 492 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $119,900 Active 491 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $119,900 Active 490 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $119,900 Active 489 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $119,900 Active 488 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $119,900 Active 487 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $119,900 Active 486 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $119,900 Active 485 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $119,900 Active 484 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $17,141
− Mortgage interest: −$8,402
− Property taxes: −$2,250
− Insurance: −$750
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,371
− Management: −$1,371
− HOA: −$10,200
− Depreciation: −$4,364
Taxable loss: −$11,567

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,776
After-tax cash flow: $-6,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern appliances and a clean layout. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to maximize both resale and rental value with minimal investment.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — This can increase the home's appeal for both buyers and renters. ↑
Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
Both Adding a smart home system — This can increase the home's appeal and potentially increase its value over time. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rustic Oak El C TX #587/4,322 Nat'l #9,513/41,679 Middle Pearland J H East B+ TX #141/1,662 Nat'l #1,620/14,009 High Pearland H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Pearland ISD
NCES district ID: 4834440
Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $90,091
Composite: 53.67/100
National rank: #1430
State rank: #47 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Pearland

Score: 81/100
State rank: #32
US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
City population: 142,397
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 51,332
Household income: $111,139
Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 420,414 people
By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 20% Black 10% Asian 7%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -100.56%
Current HPI: 244.7942
Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2025-05-23 Listed $119,900 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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