Aspen Plan · Pearland, TX 77581

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 391 Days on market

Excellent condition $850/mo HOA · 41% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing The Aspen!! If you're looking for luxury living at an affordable price, this is the home for you. This move in ready home comes with brand-new stainless-steel appliances, an 8x10 storage shed, full landscaping package, 10-year structural warranty, and access to all of the community amenities! Residents here at The Landing at Pearland are allowed to extend their decks, add an awning or carport, add a fence, or even extended their shed or driveway if they please! You will love the cozy feel of the Aspen model, come check it out today!!

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Storage shed
• Landscaping package

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• STORAGE SHED
• LANDSCAPING PACKAGE
• STRUCTURAL WARRANTY
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

🏗️ New construction. The $119,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $150,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (6.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 391 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 391 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.42%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,000
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -20.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-40,408
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-54,735
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77581

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$850
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,388

Max offer price $112,442

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 Stoneledge Dr Friendswood, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,995	$1.57	24d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $850 · $10,200/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 391 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 390 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 389 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 388 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 386 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 382 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 381 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 380 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,900 Active 377 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 376 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 375 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 374 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 373 DOM
14. 2025-05-23
    listed $119,900 Active 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    Introducing The Aspen!! If you're looking for luxury living at an affordable price, this is the home for you. This move in ready home comes with brand-new stainless-steel appliances, an 8x10 storage shed, full landscaping package, 10-year structural warranty, and access to all of the community amenities! Residents here at The Landing at Pearland are allowed to extend their decks, add an awning or carport, add a fence, or even extended their shed or driveway if they please! You will love the cozy feel of the Aspen model, come check it out today!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,977
• − Management: −$1,977
• − HOA: −$10,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$5,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,249
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern appliances and a clean layout. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to maximize both resale and rental value with minimal investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — This can increase the home's appeal for both buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding a smart home system — This can increase the home's appeal and potentially increase its value over time.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — This can increase the home's appeal for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — This can increase the home's appeal and potentially increase its value over time. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834440
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,091
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #1430
• State rank: #47 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,332
• Household income: $111,139
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 826.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 20% Black 10% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.56%
• Current HPI: 244.7942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-23 Listed $119,900 Zillow