429 Ilchester Ave · Baltimore, MD 21218

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Townhouse public records · 238 Days on market

Built 1920 871 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ONLINE AUCTION: This auction takes place on the Ashland Auction Group website bidding platform. Bidding begins 6/11/2026 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 6/15/2026 @ 12:20 PM. The list price is the suggested opening bid. Deposit: $7,500. This two-story townhouse is located in the Harwood neighborhood of Baltimore City. Residents can enjoy the nearby facilities and attractions such as the Baltimore Museum of Art, Johns Hopkins University, and Druid Hill Park. The property is occupied. The area offers convenient access to major routes, including Interstate 83 and the Baltimore Beltway, ensuring efficient travel to other parts of the city and surrounding region.

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 238 days

🔨 Auction listing. The $35,000 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $174,929 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($701/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 7.5% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.43%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,929
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -79.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
616 E 30th St	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,092 (-8%)	1mo	$65,000	$60	76
2956 Greenmount Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,130 (-5%)	1mo	$209,395	$185	76
2821 Remington Ave	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,170 (-2%)	1mo	$265,000	$226	64
3405 Greenway #302	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,221 (+3%)	1mo	$265,000	$217	64
2540 Greenmount Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,340 (+13%)	0mo	$79,000	$59	62
728 Bartlett Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-7%)	2mo	$40,000	$36	57
604 E 35th St E	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,260 (+6%)	1mo	$94,000	$75	56
515 E 35th St	0.57mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,260 (+6%)	1mo	$135,999	$108	56
2713 Hampden Ave	0.73mi	2/2.5	1,138 (-4%)	1mo	$320,000	$281	52
2559 Garrett Ave	0.70mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,202 (+1%)	2mo	$205,000	$171	51
2602 Miles Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (-9%)	1mo	$240,000	$221	43
2545 Cecil Ave	0.63mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,318 (+11%)	1mo	$215,000	$163	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-26,782
• Equity at exit: $26,082

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-27,139
• Equity at exit: $15,125

Cash invested: $48,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21218

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,604 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $174,929

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,732
• Closing costs: $5,248
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
436 Ilchester Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	985	$1,195	$1.21	43d	1	0.01mi
436 Ilchester Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,350	$1.35	43d	1	0.01mi
402 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1436	$2,200	$1.53	43d	1	0.07mi
519 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	4d	1	0.13mi
2821 Mathews St Unit 27-668 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	730	$1,050	$1.44	23d	1	0.14mi
2821 Mathews St Unit 27-666 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	730	$1,050	$1.44	23d	1	0.14mi
428 E Lorraine Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1344	$1,875	$1.40	43d	1	0.19mi
428 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,875	$1.40	23d	1	0.19mi
450 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,695	$1.26	43d	1	0.20mi
3012 Mathews St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	996	$1,100	$1.10	17d	1	0.20mi
400 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	20d	1	0.20mi
411 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1344	$2,200	$1.64	23d	1	0.22mi
3026 Mathews St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	996	$1,350	$1.36	14d	1	0.22mi
205 E 30th St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	10d	1	0.25mi
616 Montpelier St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	10d	1	0.27mi
2535 Greenmount Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	43d	1	0.28mi
615 Homestead St Unit 1B Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	700	$1,225	$1.75	43d	1	0.28mi
2516 Barclay St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	992	$1,375	$1.39	16d	1	0.29mi
3126 Guilford Ave Apt A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,770	$2.53	3d	1	0.32mi
2637 Saint Paul St Unit 1A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	4d	1	0.33mi
3130 Guilford Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,790	$2.56	17d	1	0.33mi
2938 Saint Paul St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	750	$1,350	$1.80	43d	1	0.34mi
936 Montpelier St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1260	$1,450	$1.15	23d	1	0.35mi
3135 N Calvert St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	17d	1	0.36mi
3221 Guilford Ave Apt A Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1025	$2,925	$2.85	17d	1	0.37mi
2503 N Calvert St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	750	$900	$1.20	23d	1	0.37mi
2933 N Charles St Unit B Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	990	$1,700	$1.72	4d	1	0.38mi
2400 Barclay St Unit A Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	750	$1,190	$1.59	20d	1	0.44mi
3201 Saint Paul St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1532	$3,200	$2.09	2d	1	0.45mi
18 W 27th St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	680	$1,250	$1.84	43d	3	0.47mi
2440 Saint Paul St Unit 4E Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	891	$1,625	$1.82	43d	1	0.48mi
2752 Maryland Ave Unit 2ND FLOOR Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	17d	1	0.48mi
646 Cokesbury Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,299	$1.08	43d	1	0.49mi
2314 Hunter St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,185	$1.19	43d	1	0.52mi
2315 St Paul St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	579	$1,595	$2.75	1d	5	0.54mi
3501 Saint Paul St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.5	916	$2,142	$2.34	1d	172	0.56mi
2300 N Calvert St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	2d	2	0.57mi
724 E 35th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1368	$2,000	$1.46	14d	1	0.59mi
3529 Greenmount Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,575	$1.20	43d	1	0.59mi
2606 Cecil Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 228 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 227 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $35,000 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 221 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 220 DOM
14. 2025-10-23
    price $35,000 662-char remark

    Show marketing remark (662 chars)

    ONLINE AUCTION: This auction takes place on the Ashland Auction Group website bidding platform. Bidding begins 6/11/2026 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 6/15/2026 @ 12:20 PM. The list price is the suggested opening bid. Deposit: $7,500. This two-story townhouse is located in the Harwood neighborhood of Baltimore City. Residents can enjoy the nearby facilities and attractions such as the Baltimore Museum of Art, Johns Hopkins University, and Druid Hill Park. The property is occupied. The area offers convenient access to major routes, including Interstate 83 and the Baltimore Beltway, ensuring efficient travel to other parts of the city and surrounding region.

15. 2025-10-23
    listed $10,000 Active 662-char remark

    Show marketing remark (662 chars)

    ONLINE AUCTION: This auction takes place on the Ashland Auction Group website bidding platform. Bidding begins 6/11/2026 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 6/15/2026 @ 12:20 PM. The list price is the suggested opening bid. Deposit: $7,500. This two-story townhouse is located in the Harwood neighborhood of Baltimore City. Residents can enjoy the nearby facilities and attractions such as the Baltimore Museum of Art, Johns Hopkins University, and Druid Hill Park. The property is occupied. The area offers convenient access to major routes, including Interstate 83 and the Baltimore Beltway, ensuring efficient travel to other parts of the city and surrounding region.

16. 2023-02-06
    soldstatus $396,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,799
• − Property taxes: −$2,624
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,540
• − Management: −$1,540
• − Depreciation: −$5,089
• Taxable loss: −$2,216
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$532
• After-tax cash flow: $1,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 44,014
• Household income: $62,488
• Rent vs Own: 51.9% rent · 48.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2564.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 26% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -463.14%
• Current HPI: 292.3986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.63%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-91.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $35,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $10,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $396,250 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,025 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.