3581 W Donner St · Pahrump, NV 89048

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,035 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2000 0.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fantastic opportunity. .. This HUD property features: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths. Enjoy your days and evenings on this 0.920 acre lot with mountain views. GREAT Investment opportunity!

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2000

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $671 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 3.4% in Pahrump — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#30 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Nye County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #16 of 17 in NV (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nye County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $90k implies a 462% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.96%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,575
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3141 W Medicine Man Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-1%)	12mo	$261,900	$257	63
3021 W Wilson Rd	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,034 (-0%)	15mo	$280,000	$271	56
3141 W Charleston Park Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,060 (+2%)	13mo	$255,000	$241	50
3390 W Hardy Ln	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	931 (-10%)	9mo	$160,000	$172	48
3201 W Retread Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	940 (-9%)	21mo	$229,900	$245	48
231 Jewell Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+10%)	2mo	$288,000	$252	46
3081 W Retread Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	18mo	$268,000	$233	42
300 N Murphy St	0.73mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,125 (+9%)	10mo	$140,000	$124	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $27,733
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $77,437
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 71 Landlord-Friendly
• State Nevada: 71 Landlord-Friendly · R+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; Clark County (Vegas) had pandemic backlogs; generally landlord-friendly but courts slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 89048

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 1116
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,588 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $884/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $671

Break-even live

Break-even rent $738

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1320 Windy Ln Unit 1320 Pahrump, NV	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	0.90mi
2770 Rio Rico Dr Pahrump, NV	3.0	3.0	1236	$1,435	$1.16	43d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   status Active
3. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-19
   listed $90,000 Active
5. 2001-03-30
   soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $884 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $884 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$884
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,524
• − Management: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,011
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,683
• After-tax cash flow: $6,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nye County School District
• NCES district ID: 3200360
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,447
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #8110
• State rank: #16 of 17 in NV

Livability — Pahrump

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #9226

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pahrump, NV
• County: Nye County · 47,491 people
• City population: 47,491
• Metro: Pahrump, NV
• Population (ZIP): 26,486
• Household income: $61,367
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Nye County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,727 people
• By 2030: 38,812 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 33,952 · -16.6%
• By 2050: 29,393 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 21,122 · -48.1%
• By 2100: 14,400 · -64.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nye

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.0% · R 70.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+42.0 2012: R+24.2 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.52%
• Current HPI: 277.4486
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.73%
• Metro: Pahrump, NV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NV)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Hotels / Casinos	3	$36B

Price history

+462.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — GLVAR
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — GLVAR
• 2026-03-27 Pending — GLVAR
• 2026-03-19 Listed $90,000 GLVAR
• 2001-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $884 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.