14605 Sage Bloom Ln · Elgin, TX 78621

$320,740

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,258 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $341k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

As you enter the home, you're welcomed into the foyer with immediate access to the staircase leading to the second floor. Continuing through the main level, you'll pass a storage closet, a bedroom with a full bath, and entry to the two-car garage. The home then opens into the family room, dining area, and kitchen-offering a comfortable and connected living space. Upstairs, a spacious loft serves as a central gathering area, leading to two additional bedrooms, each with its own walk-in closet and a shared full bath. The second floor also includes the primary bedroom, featuring a private bath and a generous walk-in closet, as well as a conveniently located laundry room.

Key facts

• Foyer
• Kitchen
• Storage closet

Tags

• FOYER
• STORAGE CLOSET
• FAMILY ROOM
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 2,258; Located at 14605 Sage Bloom Ln, Elgin, TX 78621; List price $320,740; Status: Active; Last modified: 2026-05-22

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electric service; Central HVAC (heat pump for heating)
• Home design: Spec home — Magellan plan; Single-family property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $321k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-478 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $220,025 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.39%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $340,958
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14501 Bonellis Pass	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,258 (0%)	4mo	$299,625	$133	88
18304 Speculator Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,213 (-2%)	2mo	$274,999	$124	85
14617 Bonellis Pass	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,338 (+4%)	6mo	$325,291	$139	82
14621 Bonellis Pass	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,338 (+4%)	7mo	$320,575	$137	82
18209 Harpy Ct	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-6%)	7mo	$339,490	$160	80
18224 Stellers Sea St	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-6%)	9mo	$335,090	$158	75
14520 Wahlbergs Way	0.12mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,470 (+9%)	1mo	$352,900	$143	71
18300 Stellers Sea St	0.14mi	4/2.5	1,924 (-15%)	2mo	$289,900	$151	66
18237 Stellers Sea St	0.10mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,470 (+9%)	10mo	$375,000	$152	65
18236 Stellers Sea St	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,924 (-15%)	7mo	$313,900	$163	62
16416 Farmhouse Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,986 (-12%)	8mo	$248,400	$125	56
216 Lavender Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,997 (-12%)	7mo	$301,640	$151	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $144,515
• Equity at exit: $288,948

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $450,142
• Equity at exit: $623,127

Cash invested: $89,807 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$401 /mo · $4,811/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,806

Max offer price $251,520

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,185
• Closing costs: $9,622
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	43d	1	0.13mi
17001 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,945	$0.77	20d	1	0.13mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	23d	1	0.13mi
18501 Spotted Eagle Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	3.5	2891	$2,800	$0.97	3d	1	0.21mi
17041 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,370	$0.93	3d	1	0.22mi
16429 Farmhouse Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,000	$0.79	2d	1	0.29mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	23d	1	0.31mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	43d	1	0.31mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	23d	1	0.34mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	0.39mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	23d	1	0.39mi
18741 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,980	$0.78	23d	1	0.40mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	17d	1	0.41mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	0.44mi
19024 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,995	$0.78	43d	1	0.48mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	1d	1	0.51mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,452	$1.38	1d	1	0.57mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	3d	1	0.77mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	1d	1	0.79mi
11524 Rush Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,300	$0.93	43d	1	0.79mi
19017 Romano Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,198	$0.89	4d	1	0.81mi
102 Blanco Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$1,800	$0.73	43d	1	1.04mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	43d	1	1.20mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	17d	1	1.22mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	4d	1	1.41mi

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,966
• − Property taxes: −$4,811
• − Insurance: −$1,604
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$9,331
• Taxable loss: −$11,533
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,768
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B