604 S Market St · Holden, MO 64040

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 948 sqft · Other public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1900 7,000 sqft lot $84/sqft · 30% below area Est $148k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is located in Holden Missouri. Cute covered front porch. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath.

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 117 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($996 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 2.6% in Holden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#167 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Holden R-III (rural): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #176 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.00%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,453
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -46.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $62,491
• Equity at exit: $71,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.56×
• Total profit: $169,036
• Equity at exit: $155,228

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64040

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $996 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $437/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $619

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-04-25
    price $99,900 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Home is located in Holden Missouri. Cute covered front porch. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath.

16. 2026-03-24
    price $104,900 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Home is located in Holden Missouri. Cute covered front porch. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath.

17. 2026-02-21
    listed $109,900 Active 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Home is located in Holden Missouri. Cute covered front porch. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath.

18. 2024-07-31
    soldstatus
19. 2022-05-26
    soldstatus
20. 2022-05-25
    status Pending 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    Investment property, lots of work has been completed. Great starter for someone looking for sweat equity.

21. 2022-05-25
    soldstatus Closed 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    Investment property, lots of work has been completed. Great starter for someone looking for sweat equity.

22. 2022-04-25
    historical Active Under Contract 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    Investment property, lots of work has been completed. Great starter for someone looking for sweat equity.

23. 2022-04-01
    listed $65,000 Active 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    Investment property, lots of work has been completed. Great starter for someone looking for sweat equity.

24. 2017-11-01
    soldstatus
25. 2013-01-07
    historical
26. 2013-01-03
    listed $26,900
27. 2012-08-09
    historical
28. 2011-09-26
    listed $26,900
29. 2011-08-16
    historical
30. 2011-02-16
    listed $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $437 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $775 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$338/yr (+$28/mo · 77.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$437
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$956
• − Management: −$956
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,405
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$577
• After-tax cash flow: $3,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holden R-III
• NCES district ID: 2914490
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,033
• Composite: 32.27/100
• National rank: #5759
• State rank: #176 of 324 in MO

Livability — Holden

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #8986

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holden, MO
• City population: 5,968
• Population (ZIP): 5,968

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,794 people
• By 2030: 56,861 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 58,239 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 59,168 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 62,222 · +11.5%
• By 2100: 60,118 · +7.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.6) · D 29.5% · R 69.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.3pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -39.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.6 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+24.2 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.92%
• Current HPI: 342.75
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+470.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $99,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $104,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Listed $109,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-25 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-25 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-25 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-01 Listed $65,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-01-07 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-03 Listed $26,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-09 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-26 Listed $26,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-16 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-16 Listed $17,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $437 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.