465 Wolf Crest Blvd · Seguin, TX 78155

$190,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · Land · 70 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $129/sqft · 10% below area Est $213k · 10% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Vogel El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 401 students, 74% FRL); Briesemeister Middle (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 725 students, 77% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1377 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $179,069 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.08%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,679
• List price: $190,499
• Delta: -10.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-26,678
• Equity at exit: $28,404

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-22,463
• Equity at exit: $16,471

Cash invested: $53,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1377
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,810 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$999
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,857/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,693

Max offer price $190,499

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $224	-5% $158	+0% $92	+5% $27	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-51	-5% $21	+0% $92	+5% $164	+10% $235
Rate	-1.0pp $188	-0.5pp $141	base $92	+0.5pp $43	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,625
• Closing costs: $5,715
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
805 Riviera Ct Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,795	$0.96	12d	1	0.22mi
805 Riviera Ct Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,795	$0.96	25d	1	0.22mi
401 Alta Vista Ter Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,995	$1.20	25d	1	0.24mi
829 Margay Loop Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,775	$1.13	45d	1	0.48mi
829 Margay Loop Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,775	$1.13	19d	1	0.48mi
1060 Pronghorn Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,650	$1.17	45d	1	0.58mi
771 Monarch Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,740	$1.08	4d	1	0.61mi
723 Armadillo Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1781	$1,900	$1.07	0d	1	0.64mi
728 Armadillo Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,745	$1.08	0d	1	0.65mi
800 Nodding Nixie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1781	$1,745	$0.98	45d	1	0.65mi
912 Cinnamon Teal Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,945	$1.08	18d	1	0.66mi
812 Indigo Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$1,900	$1.21	0d	1	0.75mi
817 Pronghorn Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,695	$1.08	21d	1	0.77mi
1051 Country Club Dr #28 Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,300	$1.26	5d	1	0.86mi
1048 Country Club Dr Seguin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	829	$1,150	$1.39	0d	5	0.87mi
1051 Country Club Dr Seguin, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	990	$1,400	$1.41	45d	3	0.88mi
541 Chaco Loop Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,800	$1.43	0d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $190,499 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,499 Price Change 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,499 Price Change 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,499 Price Change 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,499 Price Change 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $190,499 Price Change 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $192,499 Price Change 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $192,499 Price Change 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $191,999 Price Change 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $191,999 Price Change 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $191,999 Price Change 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,999 Price Change 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,999 Price Change 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $204,499 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

15. 2026-05-10
    price $204,499 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

16. 2026-05-08
    price $199,499 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

17. 2026-05-08
    price $199,499 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

18. 2026-05-06
    price $198,999 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

19. 2026-05-05
    listed $198,999 Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

20. 2026-04-09
    listed $213,999 New 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,671
• − Property taxes: −$2,857
• − Insurance: −$952
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,738
• − Management: −$1,738
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$5,542
• Taxable loss: −$2,030
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$487
• After-tax cash flow: $1,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $204,499 LERA
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $204,499 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $199,499 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $199,499 LERA
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $198,999 LERA
• 2026-05-05 Listed $198,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-09 Listed $213,999 LERA

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $187 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.