12887 Daydream Loop · Osakis, MN 56360

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 1983

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare year-round home available in Linwood Resort! This well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home has seen significant updates throughout and offers comfortable, low-maintenance living just steps from the lake. Located on the quiet lake side of the resort & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; approximately 50 yards from the shoreline & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; you can enjoy lake life amenities without the high taxes of traditional lakefront ownership. The home features central air and forced-air heat for efficient year-round comfort. A new steel roof was installed on the main home in 2024, along with upgraded blow-in insulation for improved efficiency and peace of mi

Key facts

• Significant updates
• Quiet lake side
• New steel roof

Tags

• SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• QUIET LAKE SIDE
• CENTRAL AIR
• FORCED AIR HEAT
• NEW STEEL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($885 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.3% in Osakis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#130 in MN, #2,916 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Osakis Public School District (rural): math 58% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #70 of 301 in MN (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Todd County in 2024 (78 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Todd County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.26%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-852
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $15,777
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56360

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $172/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $627

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-05-29
    listed $85,000 Active
13. 2015-06-16
    listed $27,500
14. 2015-04-13
    price $30,000
15. 2014-09-22
    listed $30,000
16. 2010-10-26
    historical
17. 2010-04-16
    listed $46,900
18. 2009-10-26
    listed $46,900
19. 2009-10-26
    listed $46,900
20. 2009-10-26
    listed $46,900
21. 2009-10-26
    listed $46,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $172 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $562 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$390/yr (+$32/mo · 226.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$172
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$849
• − Management: −$849
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,089
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$261
• After-tax cash flow: $2,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osakis Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2725140
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $48,292
• Composite: 46.8/100
• National rank: #2379
• State rank: #70 of 301 in MN

Livability — Osakis

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #2916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,738

Population outlook (Todd County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,202 people
• By 2030: 20,962 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 18,352 · -17.3%
• By 2050: 15,904 · -28.4%
• By 2075: 11,348 · -48.9%
• By 2100: 7,801 · -64.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 15% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Todd

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.5) · D 22.5% · R 76.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.4pp toward R · 2008: -11.1pp · 2024: -53.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.5 2020: R+48.8 2016: R+47.7 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+11.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.96%
• Current HPI: 194.0284
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+81.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $85,000 FSBO.com
• 2015-06-16 Listed $27,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-13 Price Changed $30,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-22 Listed $30,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-16 Listed $46,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-26 Listed $46,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-26 Listed $46,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-26 Listed $46,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-26 Listed $46,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $172 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.