408 Avenue B · Forsan, TX 79733

$90,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 5,195 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1980 0.28 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 408 Avenue B, a sprawling 5-bedroom, 4-bathroom ranch offering 6,500 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. Built in 1980, this home combines classic ranch charm with ample room for your family and entertaining. Featuring multiple living areas, a roomy kitchen, and expansive bedrooms, there’s plenty of space for everyone. You're sure to love the charming stone fireplace, lovely wood and tile flooring, and the architecture this home has to offer. The large lot provides endless possibilities for outdoor living, gardening, or adding your dream pool or patio. Located in the heart of Forsan, enjoy peaceful country living while staying close to local amenities. Whether you're an investor or a buyer looking for a home to make your own style this is the perfect home for you. Don’t miss the chance to make this spacious ranch your next home! Call today for a private showing!

Key facts

• Large lot
• Stone fireplace
• Outdoor living

Tags

• STONE FIREPLACE
• WOOD AND TILE FLOORING
• LARGE LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $562 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#418 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Forsan ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #259 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Howard County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Howard County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.75%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $46,647
• Equity at exit: $40,468

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $115,955
• Equity at exit: $62,366

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79733

• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,498 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    price $90,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    status Pending 899-char remark

    Show marketing remark (899 chars)

    Welcome to 408 Avenue B, a sprawling 5-bedroom, 4-bathroom ranch offering 6,500 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. Built in 1980, this home combines classic ranch charm with ample room for your family and entertaining. Featuring multiple living areas, a roomy kitchen, and expansive bedrooms, there’s plenty of space for everyone. You're sure to love the charming stone fireplace, lovely wood and tile flooring, and the architecture this home has to offer. The large lot provides endless possibilities for outdoor living, gardening, or adding your dream pool or patio. Located in the heart of Forsan, enjoy peaceful country living while staying close to local amenities. Whether you're an investor or a buyer looking for a home to make your own style this is the perfect home for you. Don’t miss the chance to make this spacious ranch your next home! Call today for a private showing!

17. 2026-05-05
    status Pending 899-char remark

    Show marketing remark (899 chars)

    Welcome to 408 Avenue B, a sprawling 5-bedroom, 4-bathroom ranch offering 6,500 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. Built in 1980, this home combines classic ranch charm with ample room for your family and entertaining. Featuring multiple living areas, a roomy kitchen, and expansive bedrooms, there’s plenty of space for everyone. You're sure to love the charming stone fireplace, lovely wood and tile flooring, and the architecture this home has to offer. The large lot provides endless possibilities for outdoor living, gardening, or adding your dream pool or patio. Located in the heart of Forsan, enjoy peaceful country living while staying close to local amenities. Whether you're an investor or a buyer looking for a home to make your own style this is the perfect home for you. Don’t miss the chance to make this spacious ranch your next home! Call today for a private showing!

18. 2026-04-09
    price $105,000 899-char remark

    Show marketing remark (899 chars)

    Welcome to 408 Avenue B, a sprawling 5-bedroom, 4-bathroom ranch offering 6,500 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. Built in 1980, this home combines classic ranch charm with ample room for your family and entertaining. Featuring multiple living areas, a roomy kitchen, and expansive bedrooms, there’s plenty of space for everyone. You're sure to love the charming stone fireplace, lovely wood and tile flooring, and the architecture this home has to offer. The large lot provides endless possibilities for outdoor living, gardening, or adding your dream pool or patio. Located in the heart of Forsan, enjoy peaceful country living while staying close to local amenities. Whether you're an investor or a buyer looking for a home to make your own style this is the perfect home for you. Don’t miss the chance to make this spacious ranch your next home! Call today for a private showing!

19. 2026-03-18
    listed $115,000 Active 899-char remark

    Show marketing remark (899 chars)

    Welcome to 408 Avenue B, a sprawling 5-bedroom, 4-bathroom ranch offering 6,500 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. Built in 1980, this home combines classic ranch charm with ample room for your family and entertaining. Featuring multiple living areas, a roomy kitchen, and expansive bedrooms, there’s plenty of space for everyone. You're sure to love the charming stone fireplace, lovely wood and tile flooring, and the architecture this home has to offer. The large lot provides endless possibilities for outdoor living, gardening, or adding your dream pool or patio. Located in the heart of Forsan, enjoy peaceful country living while staying close to local amenities. Whether you're an investor or a buyer looking for a home to make your own style this is the perfect home for you. Don’t miss the chance to make this spacious ranch your next home! Call today for a private showing!

20. 2021-05-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,439
• − Management: −$1,439
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $5,645
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,355
• After-tax cash flow: $5,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forsan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819620
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $72,975
• Composite: 38.74/100
• National rank: #4128
• State rank: #259 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forsan

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #418
• US rank: #8615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forsan, TX
• City population: 439
• Population (ZIP): 439

Population outlook (Howard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,396 people
• By 2030: 46,792 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 54,096 · +24.7%
• By 2050: 61,707 · +42.2%
• By 2075: 79,809 · +83.9%
• By 2100: 87,385 · +101.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 45% Two or more races 27% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 9% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Howard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.2% · R 81.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.6pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+58.4 2016: R+56.0 2012: R+58.2 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2021-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,133 · +17.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.