NHN Chena River Access · Fairbanks, AK 99712

$120,000

2 bd · None ba · 928 sqft · SingleFamily · 160 Days on market

Built 2024 Fair condition 6.95 ac lot $129/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just up the river from town, but far enough to have some privacy, enjoy nearly 7 acres of beautifully timbered land — right on the river. Cabin A is finished while Cabin B is fully wired and ready to be finished out, with a shower room prepped for a full bath. Both cabins sit on the southern portion of the property, and further up the banks of the Chena, a cleared lot is ready and waiting for an even larger build. This one is as close to turnkey wilderness as it gets.

Key facts

• Cleared lot
• Timbered land
• Mill on site

Tags

• TIMBERED LAND
• MILL ON SITE
• FINISHED CABIN
• SHOWER ROOM
• CLEARED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.9% in Fairbanks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#95 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.65%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,175
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -57.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $15,622
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $58,831
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99712

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,746 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $633	-5% $592	+0% $550	+5% $509	+10% $467
Rent	-10% $412	-5% $481	+0% $550	+5% $619	+10% $688
Rate	-1.0pp $611	-0.5pp $581	base $550	+0.5pp $519	+1.0pp $487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garageNo carport
• Utilities: No sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNot attached
• Construction: Built in 2024
• Exterior features: Approximately 6.95-acre lotLot accessible by snowmachine in winter; directions: call/text for directions — up the Chena (about 5 miles)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 total bedrooms
• Bathrooms: No bathrooms
• Interior features: Two bedrooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $120,000 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $120,000 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $120,000 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $120,000 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $120,000 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $120,000 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $120,000 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 142 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 141 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 140 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 139 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 136 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $120,000 Active 135 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $120,000 Active 134 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $120,000 Active 133 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $120,000 Active 132 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $120,000 Active 131 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $120,000 Active 130 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $120,000 Active 129 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $120,000 Active 128 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $120,000 Active 127 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $120,000 Active 126 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $120,000 Active 125 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $120,000 Active 124 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $120,000 Active 123 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $120,000 Active 122 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $120,000 Active 121 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $120,000 Active 120 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $120,000 Active 119 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $120,000 Active 118 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $120,000 Active 117 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $120,000 Active 116 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 115 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 114 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 113 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $120,000 Active 112 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 111 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 110 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 105 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $120,000 Active 104 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $120,000 Active 102 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,676
• − Management: −$1,676
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,989
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,197
• After-tax cash flow: $5,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 40/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $46,400–$83,520 screening

The property requires extensive structural repairs and insulation to improve its condition and safety. Significant value can be added through these improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed insulation and structural damage — Structural integrity compromised
• Major Exposed framing and missing siding — Structural instability
• Major Exposed subflooring and structural issues — Structural instability
• Major Exposed ductwork and structural issues — Structural instability

Value-add opportunities

• Both Structural repairs and insulation — Improves safety and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Exterior siding and framing repairs — Enhances curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both Interior wall repairs and insulation — Improves safety and energy efficiency ↑
• Both HVAC system repair and insulation — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Arctic Light Elementary F AK #93/156 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Tanana Middle School F AK #24/36 Nat'l #7,937/14,009 High Lathrop High School F AK #24/61 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Fairbanks

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #21394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fairbanks North Star · 101,607 people
• City population: 47,612
• Metro: Fairbanks-College, AK
• Population (ZIP): 12,070
• Household income: $103,494
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Native American 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.35%
• Current HPI: 148.2472
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garageNo carport
• Utilities: No sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNot attached
• Construction: Built in 2024
• Exterior features: Approximately 6.95-acre lotLot accessible by snowmachine in winter; directions: call/text for directions — up the Chena (about 5 miles)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 total bedrooms
• Bathrooms: No bathrooms
• Interior features: Two bedrooms

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $120,000 AKMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $120,000 GFBR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $160,000 GFBR
• 2026-04-15 Listed $160,000 AKMLS