NHN Chena River Access · Fairbanks, AK 99712

$120,000

2 bd · None ba · 928 sqft · SingleFamily · 64 Days on market

Built 2024 Fair condition 6.95 ac lot $129/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just up the river from town, but far enough to have some privacy, enjoy nearly 7 acres of beautifully timbered land - right on the river. This property comes ready to rock and roll - complete with everything you need to live off the land (ask your agent for a full list). Mill your own lumber with the mill, already on site. Also on site are all of the building materials to finish the new cabin however you want! Cabin A is finished while Cabin B is fully wired and ready to be finished out. Cabin B has a shower room that is ready to be completed with shower, sink, toilet, and indoor plumbing. These cabins are built on the southern portion of the property. Further up the banks of the Chena there is a cleared lot that is ready to go for an even larger cabin!

Key facts

• Lumber mill
• Atv
• Timbered land

Tags

• TIMBERED LAND
• LUMBER MILL
• SNOWMACHINE
• ATV
• GENERATOR
• LOG SPLITTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.9% in Fairbanks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#95 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.36%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,322
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -57.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,092
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $7,627
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99712

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 Baranof Ave Fairbanks, AK	1.0	1.0	650	$1,275	$1.96	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    listed $160,000 Active 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    Just up the river from town, but far enough to have some privacy, enjoy nearly 7 acres of beautifully timbered land - right on the river. This property comes ready to rock and roll - complete with everything you need to live off the land (ask your agent for a full list). Mill your own lumber with the mill, already on site. Also on site are all of the building materials to finish the new cabin however you want! Cabin A is finished while Cabin B is fully wired and ready to be finished out. Cabin B has a shower room that is ready to be completed with shower, sink, toilet, and indoor plumbing. These cabins are built on the southern portion of the property. Further up the banks of the Chena there is a cleared lot that is ready to go for an even larger cabin!

18. 2026-04-15
    listed $160,000 Active 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Just up the river from town, but far enough to have some privacy, enjoy nearly 7 acres of beautifully timbered land - right on the river. This property comes ready to rock and roll - complete with everything you need to live off the land. Lumber mill, snowmachine, ATV, generator, log splitter, beds, etc! Also on site are all of the building materials to finish the new cabin however you want! These cabins are built on the southern portion of the property and there is a cleared lot, also on the river, that is ready to go for an even larger cabin!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$57
• After-tax cash flow: $2,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 40/100 Extensive rehab

The property requires extensive structural repairs and insulation to improve its condition and safety. Significant value can be added through these improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed insulation and structural damage — Structural integrity compromised
• Major Exposed framing and missing siding — Structural instability
• Major Exposed subflooring and structural issues — Structural instability
• Major Exposed ductwork and structural issues — Structural instability

Value-add opportunities

• Both Structural repairs and insulation — Improves safety and energy efficiency
• Both Exterior siding and framing repairs — Enhances curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both Interior wall repairs and insulation — Improves safety and energy efficiency
• Both HVAC system repair and insulation — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed insulation and structural damage · Structural integrity compromised	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed framing and missing siding · Structural instability	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed subflooring and structural issues · Structural instability	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed ductwork and structural issues · Structural instability	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Structural repairs and insulation — Improves safety and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Exterior siding and framing repairs — Enhances curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both Interior wall repairs and insulation — Improves safety and energy efficiency ↑
• Both HVAC system repair and insulation — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Fairbanks

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #21394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairbanks, AK
• City population: 47,612
• Population (ZIP): 12,070

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Native American 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.35%
• Current HPI: 148.2472
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $160,000 GFBR
• 2026-04-15 Listed $160,000 AKMLS