10205 Burton St · Moon Lake, FL 34654

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1983 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape the hustle and bustle and embrace peace and tranquility with this beautiful piece of land with a 3 bed 2 bath mobile home, perfect for those seeking a serene, nature-filled lifestyle. With no HOA, no CDD fees, and no flood insurance required, you have the freedom to make this space your own with minimal restrictions. Situated in a prime location, you're close enough to city amenities while enjoying the peace of a countryside setting. Whether you're looking for a primary location or buying and holding, this is your opportunity to own your own slice of paradise. Adjacent property being sold by the same owner!

Key facts

• No flood insurance
• No cdd fees
• Countryside setting

Tags

• NO HOA
• NO CDD FEES
• NO FLOOD INSURANCE
• PRIME LOCATION
• COUNTRYSIDE SETTING
• SERENE LIFESTYLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total lot about 0.27 acres
• HOA & community: No association reported

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Public utilities available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property; Fixer condition; Single-story; Faces east; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.4% in Moon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $150k implies a 689% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.09%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $90,496
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10542 Helena St	0.36mi	3/2.0	924 (+3%)	12mo	$93,000	$101	68
10149 Huntley St	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+7%)	12mo	$135,000	$141	66
10615 Lisle St	0.43mi	3/2.0	960 (+7%)	6mo	$135,000	$141	63
10044 Oana St	0.70mi	3/2.0	768 (-14%)	8mo	$35,000	$46	37
9830 Fern St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,012 (+13%)	14mo	$60,000	$59	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-362
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $17,030
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,772 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,121/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,192

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13015 Midvale Ave New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	4d	1	0.72mi
9251 Adler St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1006	$1,450	$1.44	24d	1	1.03mi
11550 Baywood Meadows Dr #7 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,495	$1.48	24d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $149,900 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,900 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-02-05
    listed $159,900 Active
15. 2024-09-18
    status Pending
16. 2024-09-18
    listed $80,000 Active
17. 2024-09-18
    historical
18. 2003-04-14
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,121 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$123/yr (+$10/mo · 11.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,121
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,701
• − Management: −$1,701
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $3,231
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$775
• After-tax cash flow: $4,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Moon Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #871
• US rank: #22850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moon Lake, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+741.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-18 Listed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,121 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.