8227 Cinnamon Ln · Port St. Lucie, FL 34952

$144,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 936 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1987 5,151 sqft lot Est $158k · 9% under $347/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this sought-after 55+ Savanna Club community! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features an open and inviting layout, new appliances, and a roof that is only 5 years old for added peace of mind. Enjoy a low-maintenance lifestyle with access to resort-style amenities including golf, pools, fitness centers, tennis, pickleball, and an active social calendar. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, healthcare, and the Treasure Coast's beautiful beaches, this home is perfect for enjoying the Florida lifestyle.

Key facts

• New appliances
• Conveniently located
• 5,151 sq ft lot

Tags

• SAVANNA CLUB COMMUNITY
• NEW APPLIANCES
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• ACTIVE SOCIAL CALENDAR
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $313; Community clubhouse; Community fitness center; Community pool; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: North-facing; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes at least one bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor entry; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $996 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $144k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,840 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.51%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,184
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2975 Fiddlewood Cir	0.25mi	2/2.0	936 (0%)	5mo	$207,500	$222	84
4 Angelita	0.26mi	2/2.0	950 (+2%)	15mo	$38,000	$40	73
3 W Caribbean	0.34mi	2/2.0	950 (+2%)	21mo	$15,000	$16	64
8506 Redbay Ct	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,036 (+11%)	6mo	$193,000	$186	58
2999 Saltbush Ct	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+11%)	8mo	$176,000	$169	57
8513 Redbay Ct	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+11%)	21mo	$138,000	$133	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-15,477
• Equity at exit: $21,471

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,270
• Equity at exit: $12,450

Cash invested: $40,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,914 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$755
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,377/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$347
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,722

Max offer price $144,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,000
• Closing costs: $4,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	13d	15	0.43mi
1810 SE Pinewood Trl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,055	$2.03	13d	7	0.63mi
1811 SE Walton Lakes Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$1,926	$1.72	13d	6	0.67mi
3784 Sapodilla Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,300	$2.05	23d	1	0.74mi
1131 SE Parrish Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0	902	$2,000	$2.22	23d	1	0.89mi
1455 SE Colchester Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,795	$1.95	13d	1	1.04mi
1516 SE Royal Green Cir #202 Port St Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	921	$2,100	$2.28	23d	1	1.14mi
1503 SE Royal Green Cir Unit V104 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	865	$1,750	$2.02	23d	1	1.14mi
1520 SE Royal Green Cir Unit K-203 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	23d	1	1.17mi
1565 SE Royal Green Cir #108 Port St Lucie, FL	1.0	1.0	705	$1,595	$2.26	13d	1	1.19mi
1524 SE Royal Green Cir Unit Q102 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	865	$1,800	$2.08	13d	1	1.20mi
1550 SE Royal Green Cir Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,850	$2.37	13d	1	1.20mi
1562 SE Royal Green Cir Unit T-204 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,900	$2.43	23d	1	1.21mi
1566 SE Royal Green Cir #203 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$2,000	$2.56	13d	1	1.26mi
1537 SE Royal Green Cir Unit E204 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,750	$1.98	13d	1	1.30mi
1500 SE Tiffany Club Pl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,922	$2.15	13d	7	1.31mi
1536 SE Royal Green Cir #101 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,750	$2.24	23d	1	1.34mi
1550 SE Royal Green Cir Unit P-203 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,750	$2.24	23d	1	1.35mi
1548 SE Royal Green Cir Unit M-103 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	23d	1	1.37mi
1548 SE Royal Green Cir #108 Port St Lucie, FL	1.0	1.0	705	$1,650	$2.34	13d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $347 · $4,164/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $144,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 528-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $149,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,066
• − Property taxes: −$2,377
• − Insurance: −$720
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − HOA: −$4,164
• − Depreciation: −$4,189
• Taxable loss: −$225
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$54
• After-tax cash flow: $1,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1390.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $149,000 MARMLS
• 2025-05-09 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-04-02 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2025-03-30 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $150,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-11-22 Listed $169,000 Beaches MLS
• 2003-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $57,100 Public Records
• 1988-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,700 Public Records
• 1986-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+29.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,377 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.