535 Twin Elm · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$175,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1968 9,496 sqft lot $240/sqft · 22% above area Est $201k · 13% under $4/mo HOA ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

535 Twin Elm in Canyon Lake is the kind of property investors watch for because it offers multiple ways to win. Minutes from the lake and close to multiple boat ramps, this fixer upper sits on a .21 acre lot surrounded by trees and nature, giving it the quiet setting buyers and guests come to Canyon Lake for. The main home offers 1 bedroom, 1 full bath, and 1,016 square feet, plus a full size utility room inside. Out back, the detached 1 car garage adds even more upside with a studio apartment above, approximately 350 square feet with a full bathroom. Use it as a guest suite, long term rental, or short term rental, with an HOA that allows Airbnb style rentals. Bring your vision, renovate strategically, and turn this into a smart investment with income potential from day one.

Key facts

• Multiple boat ramps
• Full bathroom
• Quiet setting

Tags

• MULTIPLE BOAT RAMPS
• STUDIO APARTMENT ABOVE
• FULL BATHROOM
• GUEST SUITE
• QUIET SETTING
• SURROUNDED BY TREES AND NATURE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-320 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (32.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,454 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.21%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,749
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -12.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
469 W Overlook Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0 (+1)	760 (+4%)	17mo	$175,000	$230	63
430 Wild Cherry	0.53mi	2/1.0 (+1)	680 (-7%)	10mo	$145,000	$213	51
843 Grandview Bnd	0.66mi	2/1.0 (+1)	672 (-8%)	23mo	$90,500	$135	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-52,189
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-84,997
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,413/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,598

Max offer price $118,454

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-04-10
    price $175,000 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    535 Twin Elm in Canyon Lake is the kind of property investors watch for because it offers multiple ways to win. Minutes from the lake and close to multiple boat ramps, this fixer upper sits on a .21 acre lot surrounded by trees and nature, giving it the quiet setting buyers and guests come to Canyon Lake for. The main home offers 1 bedroom, 1 full bath, and 1,016 square feet, plus a full size utility room inside. Out back, the detached 1 car garage adds even more upside with a studio apartment above, approximately 350 square feet with a full bathroom. Use it as a guest suite, long term rental, or short term rental, with an HOA that allows Airbnb style rentals. Bring your vision, renovate strategically, and turn this into a smart investment with income potential from day one.

15. 2026-03-15
    listed $199,000 New 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    535 Twin Elm in Canyon Lake is the kind of property investors watch for because it offers multiple ways to win. Minutes from the lake and close to multiple boat ramps, this fixer upper sits on a .21 acre lot surrounded by trees and nature, giving it the quiet setting buyers and guests come to Canyon Lake for. The main home offers 1 bedroom, 1 full bath, and 1,016 square feet, plus a full size utility room inside. Out back, the detached 1 car garage adds even more upside with a studio apartment above, approximately 350 square feet with a full bathroom. Use it as a guest suite, long term rental, or short term rental, with an HOA that allows Airbnb style rentals. Bring your vision, renovate strategically, and turn this into a smart investment with income potential from day one.

16. 1996-02-15
    soldstatus
17. 1994-07-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,413 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$790/yr (+$66/mo · 32.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,413
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$7,007
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,682
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $175,000 LERA
• 2026-03-15 Listed $199,000 LERA
• 1996-02-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-07-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,413 · -10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.