225 Northbay Dr · Madison, MS 39110

$309,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1992 0.27 ac lot $142/sqft · at area comps Est $341k · 9% under $88/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a wonderful home - priced to sell! This beautiful 4 bedroom home with a fantastic location in Madison. The primary suite is located downstairs, while three bedrooms upstairs feature brand new carpet. The stunning two-story living room fills the home with natural light and overlooks the backyard with trees and flower beds just waiting for your personal touch! The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large eat-in breakfast area, ideal for everyday living. Enjoy entertaining in the formal dining room with beautiful molding, and appreciate the welcoming curb appeal . One of the best parts is the screened in porch overlooking the backyard. A true find in Madison - don't miss this one!

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Granite countertops
• 0.27 acre lot

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE DOWNSTAIRS
• TWO STORY LIVING ROOM
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• EAT IN BREAKFAST AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 24% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,371 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.09%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $341,358
• List price: $309,000
• Delta: -9.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
54 Moss Woods Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	2,139 (-2%)	8mo	$354,900	$166	81
20 Moss Woods Cv	0.06mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,141 (-2%)	5mo	$335,000	$156	81
217 Bayview Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,153 (-1%)	1mo	$379,900	$176	81
279 Bayview Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	2,254 (+4%)	6mo	$374,500	$166	78
69 Moss Woods Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,351 (+8%)	0mo	$369,900	$157	72
77 Moss Woods Dr	0.14mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,393 (+10%)	1mo	$365,000	$153	69
93 Napa Valley Cir	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,409 (+11%)	1mo	$359,900	$149	62
57 Napa Valley Cir	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,224 (+2%)	9mo	$389,000	$175	58
231 Bayview Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,873 (-14%)	11mo	$340,000	$182	55
213 Kiowa Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,352 (+8%)	8mo	$280,000	$119	54
120 Cedar Pine Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,853 (-15%)	3mo	$330,000	$178	44
332 Kiowa Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,314 (+6%)	7mo	$279,900	$121	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-41,609
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-28,436
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,307/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,463

Max offer price $309,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Sonnett Cir Madison, MS	4.0	3.0	2564	$3,250	$1.27	23d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   What a wonderful home - priced to sell! This beautiful 4 bedroom home with a fantastic location in Madison. The primary suite is located downstairs, while three bedrooms upstairs feature brand new carpet. The stunning two-story living room fills the home with natural light and overlooks the backyard with trees and flower beds just waiting for your personal touch! The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large eat-in breakfast area, ideal for everyday living. Enjoy entertaining in the formal dining room with beautiful molding, and appreciate the welcoming curb appeal . One of the best parts is the screened in porch overlooking the backyard. A true find in Madison - don't miss this one!

2. 2026-05-07
   price $309,000 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   What a wonderful home - priced to sell! This beautiful 4 bedroom home with a fantastic location in Madison. The primary suite is located downstairs, while three bedrooms upstairs feature brand new carpet. The stunning two-story living room fills the home with natural light and overlooks the backyard with trees and flower beds just waiting for your personal touch! The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large eat-in breakfast area, ideal for everyday living. Enjoy entertaining in the formal dining room with beautiful molding, and appreciate the welcoming curb appeal . One of the best parts is the screened in porch overlooking the backyard. A true find in Madison - don't miss this one!

3. 2026-04-28
   status Active 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   What a wonderful home - priced to sell! This beautiful 4 bedroom home with a fantastic location in Madison. The primary suite is located downstairs, while three bedrooms upstairs feature brand new carpet. The stunning two-story living room fills the home with natural light and overlooks the backyard with trees and flower beds just waiting for your personal touch! The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large eat-in breakfast area, ideal for everyday living. Enjoy entertaining in the formal dining room with beautiful molding, and appreciate the welcoming curb appeal . One of the best parts is the screened in porch overlooking the backyard. A true find in Madison - don't miss this one!

4. 2026-04-22
   status Pending 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   What a wonderful home - priced to sell! This beautiful 4 bedroom home with a fantastic location in Madison. The primary suite is located downstairs, while three bedrooms upstairs feature brand new carpet. The stunning two-story living room fills the home with natural light and overlooks the backyard with trees and flower beds just waiting for your personal touch! The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large eat-in breakfast area, ideal for everyday living. Enjoy entertaining in the formal dining room with beautiful molding, and appreciate the welcoming curb appeal . One of the best parts is the screened in porch overlooking the backyard. A true find in Madison - don't miss this one!

5. 2026-04-19
   status Active 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   What a wonderful home - priced to sell! This beautiful 4 bedroom home with a fantastic location in Madison. The primary suite is located downstairs, while three bedrooms upstairs feature brand new carpet. The stunning two-story living room fills the home with natural light and overlooks the backyard with trees and flower beds just waiting for your personal touch! The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large eat-in breakfast area, ideal for everyday living. Enjoy entertaining in the formal dining room with beautiful molding, and appreciate the welcoming curb appeal . One of the best parts is the screened in porch overlooking the backyard. A true find in Madison - don't miss this one!

6. 2026-04-09
   status Pending 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   What a wonderful home - priced to sell! This beautiful 4 bedroom home with a fantastic location in Madison. The primary suite is located downstairs, while three bedrooms upstairs feature brand new carpet. The stunning two-story living room fills the home with natural light and overlooks the backyard with trees and flower beds just waiting for your personal touch! The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large eat-in breakfast area, ideal for everyday living. Enjoy entertaining in the formal dining room with beautiful molding, and appreciate the welcoming curb appeal . One of the best parts is the screened in porch overlooking the backyard. A true find in Madison - don't miss this one!

7. 2026-03-26
   price $324,000 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   What a wonderful home - priced to sell! This beautiful 4 bedroom home with a fantastic location in Madison. The primary suite is located downstairs, while three bedrooms upstairs feature brand new carpet. The stunning two-story living room fills the home with natural light and overlooks the backyard with trees and flower beds just waiting for your personal touch! The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large eat-in breakfast area, ideal for everyday living. Enjoy entertaining in the formal dining room with beautiful molding, and appreciate the welcoming curb appeal . One of the best parts is the screened in porch overlooking the backyard. A true find in Madison - don't miss this one!

8. 2026-03-21
   price $334,000 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   What a wonderful home - priced to sell! This beautiful 4 bedroom home with a fantastic location in Madison. The primary suite is located downstairs, while three bedrooms upstairs feature brand new carpet. The stunning two-story living room fills the home with natural light and overlooks the backyard with trees and flower beds just waiting for your personal touch! The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large eat-in breakfast area, ideal for everyday living. Enjoy entertaining in the formal dining room with beautiful molding, and appreciate the welcoming curb appeal . One of the best parts is the screened in porch overlooking the backyard. A true find in Madison - don't miss this one!

9. 2026-03-17
   price $344,000 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   What a wonderful home - priced to sell! This beautiful 4 bedroom home with a fantastic location in Madison. The primary suite is located downstairs, while three bedrooms upstairs feature brand new carpet. The stunning two-story living room fills the home with natural light and overlooks the backyard with trees and flower beds just waiting for your personal touch! The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large eat-in breakfast area, ideal for everyday living. Enjoy entertaining in the formal dining room with beautiful molding, and appreciate the welcoming curb appeal . One of the best parts is the screened in porch overlooking the backyard. A true find in Madison - don't miss this one!

10. 2026-03-05
    price $349,999 736-char remark

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    What a wonderful home - priced to sell! This beautiful 4 bedroom home with a fantastic location in Madison. The primary suite is located downstairs, while three bedrooms upstairs feature brand new carpet. The stunning two-story living room fills the home with natural light and overlooks the backyard with trees and flower beds just waiting for your personal touch! The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large eat-in breakfast area, ideal for everyday living. Enjoy entertaining in the formal dining room with beautiful molding, and appreciate the welcoming curb appeal . One of the best parts is the screened in porch overlooking the backyard. A true find in Madison - don't miss this one!

11. 2026-03-05
    listed $249,999 Active 736-char remark

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    What a wonderful home - priced to sell! This beautiful 4 bedroom home with a fantastic location in Madison. The primary suite is located downstairs, while three bedrooms upstairs feature brand new carpet. The stunning two-story living room fills the home with natural light and overlooks the backyard with trees and flower beds just waiting for your personal touch! The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large eat-in breakfast area, ideal for everyday living. Enjoy entertaining in the formal dining room with beautiful molding, and appreciate the welcoming curb appeal . One of the best parts is the screened in porch overlooking the backyard. A true find in Madison - don't miss this one!

12. 2026-02-11
    historical
13. 2026-01-11
    status Active
14. 2025-12-31
    historical
15. 2025-11-23
    price $398,000
16. 2025-10-27
    listed $414,000 Active
17. 1992-05-11
    soldstatus
18. 1992-05-11
    soldstatus
19. 1992-01-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,307 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,441 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,134/yr (+$95/mo · 86.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$1,307
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,548
• − Management: −$2,548
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$3,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$830
• After-tax cash flow: $2,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, MS
• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-25.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $309,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-04-22 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-04-09 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $324,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $334,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $344,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $349,999 MLSU
• 2026-03-05 Listed $249,999 MLSU
• 2026-02-11 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-01-11 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-11-23 Price Changed $398,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-27 Listed $414,000 MLSU
• 1992-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,307 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.