407 Park Ln · Oxford, MS 38655

$209,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Townhouse public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1974 $243/sqft · at area comps Est $208k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BEST PRICED CONDO IN OXFORD! Furniture stays! Unbeatable location! Less than a mile from the heart of downtown Oxford and The University of Mississippi! This condo features fresh paint, stainless steel kitchen appliances! Whether you're looking for a game-day getaway, long-term rental, or full-time residence, this unit offers endless potential. HOA is about to do an assessment for some great improvements which include: Exterior paint, repairing siding, repair balconies & stairs, remove all pine trees, update lights, remodel clubhouse.

Key facts

• Unbeatable location
• Pool
• Built 1974

Tags

• UNBEATABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Townhouse/Condo
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; In-ground pool; Subdivision covenant

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Security system; Ceiling fan(s); Central air
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.8% in Oxford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in MS, #285 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Oxford School District (town): math 53% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 130 in MS (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 855 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 503 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lafayette County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,751 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.91%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,149
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: 0.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
606 Park Ln	0.08mi	2/1.0	864 (0%)	4mo	$249,900	$289	93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-14,600
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $24,441
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38655

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 855
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,148/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,836

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
801 Frontage Rd Oxford, MS	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,970	$1.92	43d	65	0.21mi
2000 Oxford Way Oxford, MS	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1123	$2,233	$1.99	43d	58	0.95mi
1200 Jefferson Ave #303 Oxford, MS	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,450	$3.14	43d	1	1.17mi
2216 Church St Oxford, MS	2.0	1.0	840	$1,590	$1.89	43d	2	1.22mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $209,900 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $209,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $209,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $209,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-05-12
   listed $209,900 Active 546-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$3,148
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,055
• − Management: −$2,055
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$484
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$116
• After-tax cash flow: $3,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oxford School District
• NCES district ID: 2803450
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,878
• Composite: 42.77/100
• National rank: #3152
• State rank: #12 of 130 in MS

Livability — Oxford

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #285

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oxford, MS
• County: Lafayette County · 46,156 people
• City population: 46,156
• Metro: Oxford, MS
• Population (ZIP): 46,156
• Household income: $68,235
• Rent vs Own: 39.6% rent · 60.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1892.0

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,984 people
• By 2030: 74,726 · +11.6%
• By 2040: 90,806 · +35.6%
• By 2050: 108,114 · +61.4%
• By 2075: 151,215 · +125.7%
• By 2100: 187,997 · +180.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.3% · R 60.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+12.3 2016: R+14.8 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.86%
• Current HPI: 211.5486
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.85%
• Metro: Oxford, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — NCMBR
• 2026-05-12 Listed $209,900 NCMBR

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $380 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.