312 Avenue A · Seneca, OR 97873

$74,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily · 42 Days on market

Built 1936 7,405 sqft lot $66/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 25% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity in Seneca near John Day and Malheur National Forest. 3 bed, 1 bath, 1,128 sq ft on a level 0.17-acre lot with fenced yard and alley access. 2-car garage with additional carport and off-street parking. Public water & sewer. Ideal for renovation, rental, or long-term hold. Close to national forest, the Silvies Unit, and just minutes to Silvies Valley Ranch with access to hunting, recreation, and open space. Approx. 25 minutes to John Day. Sold as-is. Cash only. Adjacent property also available for expanded opportunity.

Key facts

• Alley access
• Public sewer
• Fenced yard

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• ALLEY ACCESS
• PUBLIC WATER
• PUBLIC SEWER
• CLOSE TO NATIONAL FOREST
• ACCESS TO RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $336 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#237 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D+.
• John Day SD 3 (rural): math 31% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #16 of 58 in OR (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Grant County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,749 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.01%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,066
• List price: $74,999
• Delta: -56.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 B Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	986 (-13%)	1mo	$75,000	$76	69
104 Park Ave	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,252 (+11%)	8mo	$339,000	$271	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $30,469
• Equity at exit: $33,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $78,484
• Equity at exit: $51,971

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97873

• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $323/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $74,999

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $379	-5% $358	+0% $336	+5% $315	+10% $294
Rent	-10% $251	-5% $294	+0% $336	+5% $379	+10% $422
Rate	-1.0pp $374	-0.5pp $355	base $336	+0.5pp $317	+1.0pp $297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Investor opportunity in Seneca near John Day and Malheur National Forest. 3 bed, 1 bath, 1,128 sq ft on a level 0.17-acre lot with fenced yard and alley access. 2-car garage with additional carport and off-street parking. Public water & sewer. Ideal for renovation, rental, or long-term hold. Close to national forest, the Silvies Unit, and just minutes to Silvies Valley Ranch with access to hunting, recreation, and open space. Approx. 25 minutes to John Day. Sold as-is. Cash only. Adjacent property also available for expanded opportunity.

2. 2026-05-07
   price $74,999 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Investor opportunity in Seneca near John Day and Malheur National Forest. 3 bed, 1 bath, 1,128 sq ft on a level 0.17-acre lot with fenced yard and alley access. 2-car garage with additional carport and off-street parking. Public water & sewer. Ideal for renovation, rental, or long-term hold. Close to national forest, the Silvies Unit, and just minutes to Silvies Valley Ranch with access to hunting, recreation, and open space. Approx. 25 minutes to John Day. Sold as-is. Cash only. Adjacent property also available for expanded opportunity.

3. 2026-04-12
   price $79,999 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Investor opportunity in Seneca near John Day and Malheur National Forest. 3 bed, 1 bath, 1,128 sq ft on a level 0.17-acre lot with fenced yard and alley access. 2-car garage with additional carport and off-street parking. Public water & sewer. Ideal for renovation, rental, or long-term hold. Close to national forest, the Silvies Unit, and just minutes to Silvies Valley Ranch with access to hunting, recreation, and open space. Approx. 25 minutes to John Day. Sold as-is. Cash only. Adjacent property also available for expanded opportunity.

4. 2026-03-30
   listed $100,000 Active 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Investor opportunity in Seneca near John Day and Malheur National Forest. 3 bed, 1 bath, 1,128 sq ft on a level 0.17-acre lot with fenced yard and alley access. 2-car garage with additional carport and off-street parking. Public water & sewer. Ideal for renovation, rental, or long-term hold. Close to national forest, the Silvies Unit, and just minutes to Silvies Valley Ranch with access to hunting, recreation, and open space. Approx. 25 minutes to John Day. Sold as-is. Cash only. Adjacent property also available for expanded opportunity.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $323 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $727 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$404/yr (+$34/mo · 125.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$323
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,038
• − Management: −$1,038
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,021
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$725
• After-tax cash flow: $3,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: John Day SD 3
• NCES district ID: 4106780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,007
• Composite: 33.78/100
• National rank: #5366
• State rank: #16 of 58 in OR

Livability — Seneca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #237
• US rank: #16089

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seneca, OR
• Population (ZIP): 119

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,485 people
• By 2030: 6,060 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 5,222 · -19.5%
• By 2050: 4,581 · -29.4%
• By 2075: 3,578 · -44.8%
• By 2100: 2,756 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 9% Slovak 8% Iranian 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 18.4% · R 78.8% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -45.5pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+58.9 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+45.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $74,999 MLSCO
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $79,999 MLSCO
• 2026-03-30 Listed $100,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $323 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.