2209 NE 15th Ter · Gainesville, FL 32609

$235,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,555 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1963 10,019 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

For comp purposes only.

Key facts

• Renovated bathrooms
• Updated kitchen
• Fenced lot

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• WOOD-LOOK TILE FLOORING
• OFFICE NOOK
• FENCED LOT
• NEAR DOWNTOWN GAINESVILLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; No lease restrictions
• Financial info: Homestead exemption indicated
• HOA & community: No association approval required; Community has street lights; Development: Carol Estates

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Security system; Security lights; Security fencing/lighting/alarms
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family home; One story; West-facing
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built around 1,555 sq ft living area (public records)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Chain link, wire and wood fencing; Property inside city limits; Paved roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Stone counters; Thermostat; Window treatments; Blinds; Insulated windows; Window rods; Tinted windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer/dryer hookups in laundry room; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry room; Laundry area in garage; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($80/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W. A. Metcalfe Elementary School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 478 students, 88% FRL); Howard W. Bishop Middle School (math 52% / reading 56%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 823 students, 58% FRL); Eastside High School (math 29% / reading 56%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,220 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 48% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,058/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 1037% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,844 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.12%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-35,449
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-21,084
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32609

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,058 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,470/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,050

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $73	+0% $7	+5% $-60	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-156	-5% $-75	+0% $7	+5% $88	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $66	base $7	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   listed $235,000 Active
3. 2022-08-29
   soldstatus $220,000
4. 2021-07-23
   soldstatus $220,000 23-char remark

   Show marketing remark (23 chars)

   For comp purposes only.

5. 2021-07-19
   listed $220,000 23-char remark

   Show marketing remark (23 chars)

   For comp purposes only.

6. 2019-06-14
   soldstatus $72,000 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   CASH ONLY. Investor alert! This home is a 4/2 plus office with a 2 car garage in need of a major renovation. The roof has been leaking in the house for a while and left vacant so there is mold in the house. Great neighborhood and a great layout just needing lots of love. Make an offer!

7. 2019-05-09
   listed $75,000 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   CASH ONLY. Investor alert! This home is a 4/2 plus office with a 2 car garage in need of a major renovation. The roof has been leaking in the house for a while and left vacant so there is mold in the house. Great neighborhood and a great layout just needing lots of love. Make an offer!

8. 2007-12-04
   soldstatus $116,100
9. 2007-11-27
   soldstatus $116,000
10. 2007-10-29
    listed $120,000
11. 1988-09-01
    soldstatus $41,200
12. 1979-06-01
    soldstatus $33,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,470 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,470 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,470
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,896
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$935
• After-tax cash flow: $1,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,752
• Household income: $49,406
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1037.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.25%
• Current HPI: 304.1951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+607.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-23 Sold (MLS) $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-19 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-14 Sold (MLS) $72,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-09 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $116,100 Public Records
• 2007-11-27 Sold (MLS) $116,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-29 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,200 Public Records
• 1979-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,470 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.