14291 Rios Canyon Rd #46 · Harbison Canyon, CA 92021

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $111k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You do not want to miss this view! This home sits on top of the Alta Vista Mobile Home Park with an amazing breeze flowing through the home when the windows are open. Come check this home and view out for yourself, you will not regret it! The refrigerator, washer/dryer, stove range, and air conditioning units have been replaced and updated over the past couple of years. The park has a pool, basketball court, laundry room, and a clubhouse attached to the management office. This park is located right off the 8 freeway, close to restaurants, convenient stores, retail, and popular local bars/restaurant. This is a land Lease per month. Residents are charged by PM only for their individual usage of utilities, which include; gas, electricity, water, sewer, trash, recycle.

Key facts

• Laminated flooring
• Newer central a/c
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• TOP OF THE HILL MOBILE HOME
• NEW DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• NEWER CENTRAL A/C
• FULL SIZED WASHER/DRYER
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• LAMINATED FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision: EL CAJON; Community: Alta Vista View, LLC

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Community pool; Partial fencing; Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Range; Oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Up to 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Shed(s); Partial yard fencing
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $754 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.3% in Harbison Canyon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,111 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Rios Elementary (256 students, 75% FRL); Los Coches Creek Middle (538 students, 48% FRL); Granite Hills High (math 31% / reading 59%, grade D-, #425 of 1,170 statewide, top 37%, 2,398 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 17% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.25%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $111,200
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14291 Rios Canyon Rd #2	0.00mi	2/1.0	864 (+8%)	12mo	$120,000	$139	73
14291 Rios Cyn #47	0.00mi	2/2.0	880 (+10%)	14mo	$159,000	$181	72
13792 Hwy 8 Business #25	0.64mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	16mo	$80,000	$111	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $19,175
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $54,091
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $850	-5% $802	+0% $754	+5% $706	+10% $658
Rent	-10% $583	-5% $668	+0% $754	+5% $840	+10% $926
Rate	-1.0pp $824	-0.5pp $789	base $754	+0.5pp $718	+1.0pp $681

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $139,000 Pending 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,000 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-01-14
   listed $139,000 Active
9. 2026-01-13
   historical
10. 2025-11-08
    price $144,000
11. 2025-09-22
    listed $149,000 Active
12. 2022-12-15
    soldstatus $135,000 Sold 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    You do not want to miss this view! This home sits on top of the Alta Vista Mobile Home Park with an amazing breeze flowing through the home when the windows are open. Come check this home and view out for yourself, you will not regret it! The refrigerator, washer/dryer, stove range, and air conditioning units have been replaced and updated over the past couple of years. The park has a pool, basketball court, laundry room, and a clubhouse attached to the management office. This park is located right off the 8 freeway, close to restaurants, convenient stores, retail, and popular local bars/restaurant. This is a land Lease per month. Residents are charged by PM only for their individual usage of utilities, which include; gas, electricity, water, sewer, trash, recycle.

13. 2022-10-08
    status Pending 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    You do not want to miss this view! This home sits on top of the Alta Vista Mobile Home Park with an amazing breeze flowing through the home when the windows are open. Come check this home and view out for yourself, you will not regret it! The refrigerator, washer/dryer, stove range, and air conditioning units have been replaced and updated over the past couple of years. The park has a pool, basketball court, laundry room, and a clubhouse attached to the management office. This park is located right off the 8 freeway, close to restaurants, convenient stores, retail, and popular local bars/restaurant. This is a land Lease per month. Residents are charged by PM only for their individual usage of utilities, which include; gas, electricity, water, sewer, trash, recycle.

14. 2022-09-17
    listed $140,000 Active 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    You do not want to miss this view! This home sits on top of the Alta Vista Mobile Home Park with an amazing breeze flowing through the home when the windows are open. Come check this home and view out for yourself, you will not regret it! The refrigerator, washer/dryer, stove range, and air conditioning units have been replaced and updated over the past couple of years. The park has a pool, basketball court, laundry room, and a clubhouse attached to the management office. This park is located right off the 8 freeway, close to restaurants, convenient stores, retail, and popular local bars/restaurant. This is a land Lease per month. Residents are charged by PM only for their individual usage of utilities, which include; gas, electricity, water, sewer, trash, recycle.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,084
• − Management: −$2,084
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $7,269
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,744
• After-tax cash flow: $7,304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Harbison Canyon

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1111
• US rank: #25583

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed $139,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $144,000 SDMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $149,000 SDMLS
• 2022-12-15 Sold (MLS) $135,000 SDMLS
• 2022-10-08 Pending — SDMLS
• 2022-09-17 Listed $140,000 SDMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2013): $136 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.