5514 Barron Rd · Cove, TX 77523

$219,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2018 6,621 sqft lot Est $246k · 11% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This thoughtfully designed 2-story home features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and boasts over $10,000 worth of upgrades! Features include energy efficient appliances, upgraded wood cabinets, and brushed nickel hardware. The Beech floor plan also showcases a large family room that opens up to a sizeable dining area and chef-ready kitchen perfect for entertaining guests. Upstairs, you will discover a private master retreat complete with a spacious walk-in closet, and two additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• 6,621 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2018

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-109/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,241 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,700
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5523 Rainbow Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-1%)	9mo	$243,900	$175	87
5739 Rainbow Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,381 (-2%)	1mo	$215,000	$156	85
5614 Rainbow Rd	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,404 (0%)	12mo	$233,000	$166	85
5715 Treasure Cove Rd	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,404 (0%)	13mo	$237,500	$169	82
5838 Golden Cove Rd	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,404 (0%)	10mo	$220,000	$157	78
5818 Snapping Turtle Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+1%)	13mo	$255,000	$180	76
5943 Snapping Turtle Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-5%)	2mo	$225,000	$169	73
6011 Treasure Cove Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-1%)	11mo	$257,000	$185	72
5831 Littoral Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-5%)	7mo	$233,900	$175	65
6022 Treasure Cove Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-5%)	9mo	$239,900	$180	65
6023 Treasure Cove Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-5%)	12mo	$235,000	$176	63
5131 Creekside Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+15%)	6mo	$280,000	$174	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-35,352
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-27,976
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,094/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,944

Max offer price $218,298

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	19d	1	0.35mi
5006 Creekside Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,081	$1.34	24d	1	0.59mi
8017 FM 3180 Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,450	$1.34	43d	1	0.64mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,195	$1.26	2d	1	0.65mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,195	$1.26	17d	1	0.65mi
4814 Emerald Bay Cir Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,191	$1.32	21d	1	0.69mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	2d	1	0.71mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	15d	1	0.71mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	1d	1	1.07mi
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	43d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $219,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $219,900 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 693-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $219,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,094 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,024 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$930/yr (+$77/mo · 30.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,094
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$3,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$918
• After-tax cash flow: $809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Coming Soon $219,900 HARMLS
• 2018-11-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-11-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-09-14 Listed $175,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,094 · -7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.