168 Sophie Kathryn Dr · Barboursville, VA 22923

$299,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · Townhouse · 57 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $204/sqft · at area comps Est $301k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Rutledge at Essence at Creekside Townhomes, an ideal retreat for outdoor recreation and community connection near Charlottesville. . This move-in ready Rutledge covers 1,470 square feet on two levels, with three bedrooms, two full baths, a powder room, and a one-car front-load garage. On the main level, the living area opens into the kitchen and dining space, where a kitchen island stretches the counter space and keeps the cook connected to everything happening around it. A patio off the back extends the main level outdoors, useful on evenings when the house needs a little air.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Playgrounds

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUNDS
• TRAIL ACCESS
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• PRIVACY FENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($45/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Barboursville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ruckersville Elementary (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C+, #583 of 1,108 statewide, top 53%, 506 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,903 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,805
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -0.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Sophie Kathryn Dr Lot 141	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	1mo	$323,630	$220	94
23 Grayson Village Dr Lot 172	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$299,990	$204	93
126 Sophie Kathryn Dr Lot 148	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$290,935	$198	93
19 Grayson Village Dr Lot 171	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$304,990	$207	93
106 Sophie Kathryn Dr Lot 143	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	1mo	$308,500	$210	93
27 Grayson Village Dr Lot 173	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$317,490	$216	92
102 Sophie Kathryn Dr Lot 142	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	1mo	$305,200	$208	92
31 Grayson Village Dr Lot 174	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$317,490	$216	92
76 Sophie Kathryn Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	2mo	$318,253	$216	92
80 Sophie Kathryn Dr Lot 136	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	2mo	$326,630	$222	91
49 Grayson Village Dr #178	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	2mo	$319,935	$218	89
43 Grayson Village Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	2mo	$325,130	$221	88

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-48,331
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-41,616
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.3 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $324,630 ($221/sqft)
• Median days on market: 7 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,629 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $299,990

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $107	+0% $4	+5% $-100	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-204	-5% $-100	+0% $4	+5% $108	+10% $211
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $80	base $4	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
59 Grayson Village DR Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1470	$2,100	$1.43	0d	1	0.03mi
50 Grayson Village DR Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1470	$2,095	$1.43	0d	1	0.14mi
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	62d	1	0.66mi
591 Preddy Creek Rd Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,250	$1.88	23d	1	0.97mi
32 Estes Ct Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,600	$1.86	62d	1	1.13mi
100 Terrace Greene Cir Barboursville, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	938	$1,999	$2.13	0d	19	1.19mi
95 Terrace Greene Cir Barboursville, VA	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.5	1464	$2,566	$1.75	0d	12	1.22mi
144 Lake Saponi Dr #7 Barboursville, VA	3.0	1.5	1260	$2,000	$1.59	22d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $299,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 parking space total)
• Home design: Single-family home (The Rutledge)Active listing
• Exterior features: Address: 168 Sophie Kathryn Dr, Barboursville, VA 22923

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home — The Rutledge planLiving area of 1,470

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-08-06
   days on market $299,990 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-08-05
   days on market $299,990 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-08-04
   days on market $299,990 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-08-03
   days on market $299,990 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-07-31
   days on market $299,990 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-07-30
   days on market $299,990 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-07-29
   days on market $299,990 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-07-27
   days on market $299,990 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-07-25
   days on market $299,990 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,990 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $299,990 Active 34 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 33 DOM
19. 2026-07-12
    days on market $299,990 Active 32 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $299,990 Active 31 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $299,990 Active 30 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 29 DOM
23. 2026-07-08
    days on market $299,990 Active 28 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 27 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $299,990 Active 26 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $299,990 Active 25 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 24 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 23 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 22 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 21 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $299,990 Active 20 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $299,990 Active 19 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $299,990 Active 18 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $299,990 Active 17 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $299,990 Active 16 DOM
36. 2026-06-25
    days on market $299,990 Active 14 DOM
37. 2026-06-23
    days on market $299,990 Active 12 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 11 DOM
39. 2026-06-19
    days on market $299,990 Active 9 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 8 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $299,990 Active 7 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 6 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $299,990 Active 5 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $299,990 Active 3 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    remarks 699-char remark
46. 2026-06-13
    listed $299,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,524
• − Management: −$2,524
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,030
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,207
• After-tax cash flow: $1,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This townhome is in excellent condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a good curb appeal, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ruckersville Elementary C+ VA #583/1,108 Nat'l #8,292/41,679 Middle William Monroe Middle C VA #226/342 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High William Monroe High C+ VA #256/319 Nat'l #3,898/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Barboursville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 20,465 people
• City population: 6,435
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own

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Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $299,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 parking space total)
• Home design: Single-family home (The Rutledge)Active listing
• Exterior features: Address: 168 Sophie Kathryn Dr, Barboursville, VA 22923

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home — The Rutledge planLiving area of 1,470