168 Sophie Kathryn Dr · Ruckersville, VA 22923

$299,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · Townhouse · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Est $318k · 6% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Rutledge at Essence at Creekside Townhomes, a townhome neighborhood with community pool, clubhouse, playgrounds, and trail access to outdoor recreation. This Rutledge spans two levels with 1,450 square feet, three bedrooms, two full baths, a powder room, and a one-car front-load garage. The main level opens into a connected kitchen, dining, and living area, with a kitchen island giving the space a natural gathering point. Upstairs, the primary suite sits at one end of the hall with its own bath, while two additional bedrooms and a second full bath round out the upper level. A walk-in laundry room sits between the bedrooms, keeping the chore close to where it starts. Design s

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Playgrounds

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUNDS
• TRAIL ACCESS
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• PRIVACY FENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $299,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 parking space total)
• Home design: Single-family home (The Rutledge); Active listing
• Exterior features: Address: 168 Sophie Kathryn Dr, Barboursville, VA 22923

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home — The Rutledge plan; Living area of 1,470

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruckersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#318 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $283,360 (5.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.36%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
66 Grayson Village Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$321,990	$219	96
56 Grayson Village Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	4mo	$297,490	$202	96
28 Grayson Village Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$299,990	$204	93
44 Grayson Village Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$318,990	$217	90
20 Grayson Village Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	2mo	$324,393	$221	90
30 Grayson Village Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	2mo	$309,990	$211	90
40 Grayson Village Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$316,730	$215	90
34 Grayson Village Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$299,990	$204	90
62 Grayson Village Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	4mo	$329,990	$224	90
45 Grayson Village Dr #177	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	1mo	$324,630	$221	89
54 Grayson Village Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	4mo	$317,990	$216	89
50 Grayson Village Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	4mo	$296,381	$202	89

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-38,035
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-19,384
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,834 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $299,990

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	12d	1	0.66mi
591 Preddy Creek Rd Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	2d	1	0.97mi
32 Estes Ct Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,600	$1.86	13d	1	1.13mi
100 Terrace Greene Cir Barboursville, VA	2.0	2.0–2.5	1272	$2,099	$1.65	1d	23	1.19mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,990 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,990 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $299,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,720
• − Management: −$2,720
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$2,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$712
• After-tax cash flow: $2,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This townhome is in excellent condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a good curb appeal, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ruckersville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #11455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 21,992 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B