6311 Magnolia Dr · Laurel Lake, NJ 08332

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1970 10,000 sqft lot $78/sqft · at area comps Est $78k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come make forever in this home or keep as an investment property. This home is tenant occupied. The home is on a corner lot and has a attached 1 car garage space.

Key facts

• Corner lot
• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1970

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• ATTACHED GARAGE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $919 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 7.3% in Laurel Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#521 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Commercial Township School District (rural): math 5% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #449 of 472 in NJ (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 296 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.51%
• DSCR: 3.34
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,275
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -4.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
232 Jute Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	952 (-1%)	13mo	$187,500	$197	80
115 Robin Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	960 (0%)	10mo	$177,000	$184	74
7210 Dove Pl	0.55mi	3/1.0	988 (+3%)	1mo	$123,000	$124	69
5211 Magnolia Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	960 (0%)	7mo	$232,000	$242	67
7178 Keron Dr	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+2%)	3mo	$170,000	$173	60
5601 Briarwood Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	9mo	$210,000	$202	57
420 Doe Pl	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+10%)	7mo	$225,000	$213	55
12 Pleasantview Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	907 (-6%)	2mo	$236,000	$260	55
701 Uranus Rd	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	1mo	$200,100	$189	47
421 Evergreen Rd	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (+8%)	13mo	$200,000	$192	42
5112 Magnolia Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+15%)	10mo	$240,000	$218	38
122 Mist Rd	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-13%)	2mo	$70,000	$84	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $44,466
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.07×
• Total profit: $106,408
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08332

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $919

Break-even live

Break-even rent $692

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7357 William Ave Millville, NJ	2.0	1.0	938	$1,550	$1.65	43d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $99,000 Active 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Come make forever in this home or keep as an investment property. This home is tenant occupied. The home is on a corner lot and has a attached 1 car garage space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,468 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,668 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$200/yr (+$17/mo · 13.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,468
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,781
• − Management: −$1,781
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $10,478
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,515
• After-tax cash flow: $8,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commercial Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3403480
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,143
• Composite: 14.86/100
• National rank: #9378
• State rank: #449 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Laurel Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #22397

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laurel Lake, NJ
• County: Cumberland County · 80,266 people
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 35,228
• Household income: $67,496
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1761.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,743 people
• By 2030: 150,373 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 146,881 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 142,653 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 129,468 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 107,456 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 15% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: D+6.0 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+23.1 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.45%
• Current HPI: 274.8011
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,468 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.