209 Santa Susana · San Leandro, CA 94579

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2007 Est $336k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

VERY NICE SENIOR PARK. THIS HOME FEATURES NEWER REMODELED KITCHEN. NEW FRONT & BACK STEPS ENCLOSED SUN PORCH 2 STORAGE SHEDS

Key facts

• Clerestory skylight
• Dual-pane windows
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• COMPOSITE DECKING
• CEMENT SIDING EXTERIOR
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• CLERESTORY SKYLIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park: MISSION BAY MHP; Pets allowed with number/size limits and upon approval; Community clubhouse, pool and spa; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 or more vehicles; Guest parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double-wide model (Advantage Home)
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition shingle roof; Built as a mobile home
• Exterior features: Front porch with awning(s); Front yard; Storage; Landscaped front; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast nook / eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Kitchen island; Dishwasher; Range/oven (free-standing); Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower, sunken tub, tile and double vanity; Other bathroom(s) with shower over tub and tile
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast nook; Dining area; Formal dining room; Double-pane windows; Fireplace (living room, wood-burning)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $947 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.0% in San Leandro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#289 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• San Lorenzo Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,044 of 1,400 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $325k implies a 712% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $325,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.49%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $336,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
232 Santa Susana #232	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,678 (-0%)	0mo	$350,000	$209	94
407 Santa Monica	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,596 (-5%)	3mo	$319,900	$200	86
210 Santa Susana	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-5%)	4mo	$320,000	$200	82
227 Santa Susana	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-11%)	12mo	$323,400	$216	68
509 Santa Ynez	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-15%)	8mo	$300,000	$210	64
404 Santa Monica	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	12mo	$199,500	$139	57
154 Santa Teresa	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	7mo	$175,900	$122	56
27 Santa Anita	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,429 (-15%)	14mo	$310,000	$217	54
401 Santa Monica St #401	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (-13%)	21mo	$199,000	$136	53
375 Santa Paula	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	4mo	$199,000	$138	53
286 Santa Susana #286	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	2mo	$239,000	$166	52
259 Santa Susana	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	24mo	$230,000	$160	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $7,494
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $83,576
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94579

• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,622 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$761
• Net cashflow: $947

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,423

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15184 Swenson St San Leandro, CA	3.0	1.5	1700	$3,700	$2.18	1d	1	1.02mi
Corvallis St San Leandro, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$3,600	$3.27	1d	1	1.07mi
13933 Santiago Rd San Leandro, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$3,800	$2.84	1d	1	1.26mi
2343 Fairway Dr Unit 1 San Leandro, CA	3.0	2.0	1270	$3,300	$2.60	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $325,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $325,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,572/yr (+$131/mo · 175.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,477
• − Management: −$3,477
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $6,328
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,519
• After-tax cash flow: $9,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Lorenzo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $61,114
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #12087
• State rank: #1044 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Leandro

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #9768

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Leandro, CA
• City population: 88,086
• Population (ZIP): 19,955

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 54% White 20% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% American 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 44% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Chinese 34% Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -797.47%
• Current HPI: 272.3821
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+712.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $325,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-12-17 Sold (MLS) $40,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-11-11 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-10-29 Listed $39,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $898 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.