9779 Spike Ridge Dr · Zachary, LA 70791

$72,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,167 sqft · Manufactured · 451 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2009 Fair condition 0.41 ac lot $62/sqft · 42% below area Est $125k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.3

Listing remarks MLS

Great price, great location. Live frugally and/or invest! This home has everything you need to call it home; nothing flashy needed. This home has indoor and outdoor storage. Corner lot in Large 28"x12" shop with roll-up door. Call today!

Key facts

• Outdoor storage
• Indoor storage
• Corner lot

Tags

• INDOOR STORAGE
• OUTDOOR STORAGE
• CORNER LOT
• LARGE SHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $601 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 5.1% in Zachary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#64 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• East Baton Rouge Parish (urban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #47 of 98 in LA (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Belfair Montessori School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #251 of 646 statewide, top 41%, 264 students, 69% FRL); Liberty High School (math 50% / reading 74%, grade B-, #15 of 265 statewide, top 6%, 1,208 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the East Baton Rouge Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 684 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 451 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 451 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.76%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,000
• List price: $72,000
• Delta: -42.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9776 Deer Run Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,218 (+4%)	3mo	$125,000	$103	85
9727 Deer Run Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+12%)	2mo	$125,000	$96	74
19913 Buckhorn Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-6%)	14mo	$22,000	$20	48
19861 Buckhorn Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-6%)	14mo	$45,000	$41	48
10657 Peairs Rd	0.88mi	3/2.0	1,053 (-10%)	2mo	$104,000	$99	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $28,287
• Equity at exit: $10,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.02×
• Total profit: $81,022
• Equity at exit: $6,225

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 0.0 mo

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 70791

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 684
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,393 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,109/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $601

Break-even live

Break-even rent $633

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $641	-5% $621	+0% $601	+5% $580	+10% $560
Rent	-10% $491	-5% $546	+0% $601	+5% $656	+10% $711
Rate	-1.0pp $637	-0.5pp $619	base $601	+0.5pp $582	+1.0pp $563

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $72,000 Active 451 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $72,000 Active 450 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $72,000 Active 449 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $72,000 Active 448 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $72,000 Active 446 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $72,000 Active 443 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $72,000 Active 441 DOM
8. 2026-07-27
   days on market $72,000 Active 439 DOM
9. 2026-07-25
   days on market $72,000 Active 437 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $72,000 Active 435 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $72,000 Active 434 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $72,000 Active 433 DOM
13. 2026-07-18
    days on market $72,000 Active 430 DOM
14. 2026-07-16
    days on market $72,000 Active 427 DOM
15. 2026-07-14
    days on market $72,000 Active 426 DOM
16. 2026-07-14
    days on market $72,000 Active 425 DOM
17. 2026-07-12
    days on market $72,000 Active 424 DOM
18. 2026-07-11
    days on market $72,000 Active 423 DOM
19. 2026-07-10
    days on market $72,000 Active 422 DOM
20. 2026-07-09
    days on market $72,000 Active 421 DOM
21. 2026-07-07
    days on market $72,000 Active 419 DOM
22. 2026-07-06
    days on market $72,000 Active 418 DOM
23. 2026-07-05
    days on market $72,000 Active 417 DOM
24. 2026-07-04
    days on market $72,000 Active 416 DOM
25. 2026-07-03
    days on market $72,000 Active 415 DOM
26. 2026-07-02
    days on market $72,000 Active 414 DOM
27. 2026-07-01
    days on market $72,000 Active 413 DOM
28. 2026-06-30
    days on market $72,000 Active 412 DOM
29. 2026-06-29
    days on market $72,000 Active 411 DOM
30. 2026-06-28
    days on market $72,000 Active 410 DOM
31. 2026-06-28
    days on market $72,000 Active 409 DOM
32. 2026-06-27
    days on market $72,000 Active 408 DOM
33. 2026-06-25
    days on market $72,000 Active 406 DOM
34. 2026-06-22
    days on market $72,000 Active 403 DOM
35. 2026-06-18
    days on market $72,000 Active 400 DOM
36. 2026-06-17
    days on market $72,000 Active 399 DOM
37. 2026-06-16
    days on market $72,000 Active 398 DOM
38. 2026-06-15
    days on market $72,000 Active 397 DOM
39. 2026-06-14
    days on market $72,000 Active 395 DOM
40. 2026-06-10
    days on market $72,000 Active 392 DOM
41. 2026-06-09
    days on market $72,000 Active 391 DOM
42. 2026-06-08
    days on market $72,000 Active 390 DOM
43. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,000 Active 389 DOM
44. 2026-06-05
    days on market $72,000 Active 386 DOM
45. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,000 Active 385 DOM
46. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,000 Active 384 DOM
47. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,000 Active 383 DOM
48. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,000 Active 382 DOM
49. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,000 Active 381 DOM
50. 2025-11-04
    price $72,000 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Great price, great location. Live frugally and/or invest! This home has everything you need to call it home; nothing flashy needed. This home has indoor and outdoor storage. Corner lot in Large 28"x12" shop with roll-up door. Call today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,109 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,109 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$1,109
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,338
• − Management: −$1,338
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $6,448
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,547
• After-tax cash flow: $5,661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $29,175–$52,515 screening

This home requires significant repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value. The roof, siding, driveway, HVAC system, and foundation all need attention. Repainting the interior and exterior, repairing the driveway and walkway, and landscaping the yard can significantly increase its value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof metal · good

Deferred maintenance Est. $3,000–$12,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Windows (windows) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Electrical (electrical) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Plumbing (plumbing) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Exterior (exterior) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Other — No visible signs of damage or wear

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major siding — The siding is peeling and the paint is chipping.
• Major driveway and walkway — The driveway and walkway appear to be cracked and in need of repair.
• Major HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be old and may need to be replaced.
• Major foundation and structure — The foundation and structure appear to be in poor condition, with visible cracks and wear and tear.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale trim and paint exterior — A fresh coat of paint on the exterior can make the home look more appealing and increase its value. ↑
• Both repair driveway and walkway — A repaired driveway and walkway can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both replace HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, increasing its value. ↑
• Both landscape and improve curb appeal — A well-maintained and landscaped yard can increase the home's curb appeal and value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

High Ebr Readiness Superintendent Academy

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Baton Rouge Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200540
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $46,263
• Composite: 24.14/100
• National rank: #7745
• State rank: #47 of 98 in LA

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Zachary

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #8274

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: East Baton Rouge Parish · 464,810 people
• City population: 30,385
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 30,385
• Household income: $78,263
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (East Baton Rouge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 464,810 people
• By 2030: 472,137 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 480,243 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 484,422 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 492,069 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 476,347 · +2.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 41% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · East Baton Rouge

• 2024 margin: D (+11.1) · D 54.5% · R 43.4% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: 11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+11.1 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+9.2 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.01%
• Current HPI: 170.2143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.18%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+1557.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $72,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $72,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-10-16 Relisted — GBRMLS
• 2025-10-07 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $74,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $74,900 GBRMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed $85,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed $85,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2019-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-14 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2019-01-06 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2018-10-16 Listed $75,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2018-10-16 Listed $75,000 GBRMLS
• 2005-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records
• 2004-08-20 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2004-07-27 Delisted — GBRMLS
• 2004-07-23 Listed $4,343 AcadianaMLS
• 2004-07-23 Listed $4,343 GBRMLS

Property tax history

+38.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,109 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.