9779 Spike Ridge Dr · Central, LA 70791

$72,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,167 sqft · SingleFamily · 400 Days on market

Built 2009 0.41 ac lot $62/sqft · 42% below area Est $125k · 42% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great price, great location. Live frugally and/or invest! This home has everything you need to call it home; nothing flashy needed. This home has indoor and outdoor storage. Corner lot in Large 28"x12" shop with roll-up door. Call today!

Key facts

• Outdoor storage
• Indoor storage
• Corner lot

Tags

• INDOOR STORAGE
• OUTDOOR STORAGE
• CORNER LOT
• LARGE SHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $860 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 3.3% in Central — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#25 in LA, #4,761 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• East Baton Rouge Parish (urban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #47 of 98 in LA (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 584 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 400 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 400 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.19%
• DSCR: 3.28
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,000
• List price: $72,000
• Delta: -42.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $45,204
• Equity at exit: $10,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.89×
• Total profit: $118,698
• Equity at exit: $6,225

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70791

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 584
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,722 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,109/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $860

Break-even live

Break-even rent $633

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,000 Active 400 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,000 Active 399 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,000 Active 398 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,000 Active 397 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $72,000 Active 395 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $72,000 Active 392 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,000 Active 391 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,000 Active 390 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $72,000 Active 389 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $72,000 Active 386 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,000 Active 385 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,000 Active 384 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,000 Active 383 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,000 Active 382 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,000 Active 381 DOM
16. 2025-11-04
    price $72,000 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Great price, great location. Live frugally and/or invest! This home has everything you need to call it home; nothing flashy needed. This home has indoor and outdoor storage. Corner lot in Large 28"x12" shop with roll-up door. Call today!

17. 2025-11-04
    price $72,000 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Great price, great location. Live frugally and/or invest! This home has everything you need to call it home; nothing flashy needed. This home has indoor and outdoor storage. Corner lot in Large 28"x12" shop with roll-up door. Call today!

18. 2025-10-16
    status Active 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Great price, great location. Live frugally and/or invest! This home has everything you need to call it home; nothing flashy needed. This home has indoor and outdoor storage. Corner lot in Large 28"x12" shop with roll-up door. Call today!

19. 2025-10-07
    status Pending 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Great price, great location. Live frugally and/or invest! This home has everything you need to call it home; nothing flashy needed. This home has indoor and outdoor storage. Corner lot in Large 28"x12" shop with roll-up door. Call today!

20. 2025-09-01
    price $74,900 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Great price, great location. Live frugally and/or invest! This home has everything you need to call it home; nothing flashy needed. This home has indoor and outdoor storage. Corner lot in Large 28"x12" shop with roll-up door. Call today!

21. 2025-09-01
    price $74,900 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Great price, great location. Live frugally and/or invest! This home has everything you need to call it home; nothing flashy needed. This home has indoor and outdoor storage. Corner lot in Large 28"x12" shop with roll-up door. Call today!

22. 2025-05-05
    listed $85,000 Active 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Great price, great location. Live frugally and/or invest! This home has everything you need to call it home; nothing flashy needed. This home has indoor and outdoor storage. Corner lot in Large 28"x12" shop with roll-up door. Call today!

23. 2025-05-05
    listed $85,000 Active 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Great price, great location. Live frugally and/or invest! This home has everything you need to call it home; nothing flashy needed. This home has indoor and outdoor storage. Corner lot in Large 28"x12" shop with roll-up door. Call today!

24. 2019-01-17
    soldstatus $70,000
25. 2019-01-14
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2019-01-06
    status Pending
27. 2018-10-16
    listed $75,000 Active
28. 2018-10-16
    listed $75,000
29. 2005-08-26
    soldstatus $70,500
30. 2004-08-20
    soldstatus
31. 2004-07-27
    historical
32. 2004-07-23
    listed $4,343
33. 2004-07-23
    listed $4,343

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,109 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,109 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$1,109
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,653
• − Management: −$1,653
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $9,756
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,342
• After-tax cash flow: $7,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Baton Rouge Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200540
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $46,263
• Composite: 24.14/100
• National rank: #7745
• State rank: #47 of 98 in LA

Livability — Central

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #4761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: East Baton Rouge Parish · 399,686 people
• City population: 10,403
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 30,385
• Household income: $78,263
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 718.0

Population outlook (East Baton Rouge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 464,810 people
• By 2030: 472,137 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 480,243 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 484,422 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 492,069 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 476,347 · +2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 41% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · East Baton Rouge

• 2024 margin: D (+11.1) · D 54.5% · R 43.4% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: 11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+11.1 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+9.2 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.01%
• Current HPI: 170.2143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.18%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+1557.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $72,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $72,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-10-16 Relisted — GBRMLS
• 2025-10-07 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $74,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $74,900 GBRMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed $85,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed $85,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2019-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-14 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2019-01-06 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2018-10-16 Listed $75,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2018-10-16 Listed $75,000 GBRMLS
• 2005-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records
• 2004-08-20 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2004-07-27 Delisted — GBRMLS
• 2004-07-23 Listed $4,343 AcadianaMLS
• 2004-07-23 Listed $4,343 GBRMLS

Property tax history

+38.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,109 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.