4111 Heron Way Unit E-103 · South Bradenton, FL 34205

$79,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Condo · 43 Days on market

Built 1979 $646/mo HOA · 41% of rent ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Bayshore on the Lakes, Phase 1, a quiet, well-maintained 55+ community in the heart of Bradenton. Excellent pricing on this move-in ready first-floor 2BR/2BA condo featuring an open layout w/ screened patio. Seller updated both sets of sliding doors (living room, master bedroom) with heavy duty sliders featuring 'blinds between the glass' - built-in privacy. New HVAC system 2020; new laminate flooring 2022. Clean and well cared for, it offers easy, low-maintenance Florida living in a friendly setting. Designated parking is conveniently located right at the front door, and community laundry rooms are available on the 2nd and 4th floors. This central location puts you close to Brad

Key facts

• $646 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1979

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association name / property manager listed (Paul Taylor, property mgr)
• Financial info: Total annual association fees $7,752; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA dues of $646; HOA includes cable TV, internet, pool, maintenance of grounds, management, pest control, trash, common area taxes, escrow reserves and fidelity bond; Association-managed amenities: clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, shuffleboard court, laundry, community mailbox; Buyer/association approval required; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Guest parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; BB/HS internet available; Cable connected
• Home design: Condominium; One-level unit; Faces west; Located in a 4-story building (building E)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Membrane/other roof; Slab foundation; Building constructed as multi-story (4 stories total)
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Outdoor grill; Sliding doors; In-ground heated gunite pool; Fishing pier (community amenity); Mature landscaping with trees; Landscaped, level and private setting; Paved asphalt roads on private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Split-bedroom floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Elevator in building; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($588/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.1% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.66%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-13,862
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-24,131
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34205

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,571 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$646
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,509

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $76	+0% $49	+5% $22	+10% $-6
Rent	-10% $-75	-5% $-13	+0% $49	+5% $111	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $69	base $49	+0.5pp $29	+1.0pp $8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4109 Lake Bayshore Dr Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	768	$1,250	$1.63	24d	1	0.02mi
3737 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 213 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	21d	1	0.02mi
4121 Heron Way #108 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,340	$1.17	24d	1	0.02mi
3963 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit F-414 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	15d	1	0.02mi
4129 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit C501 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	4d	1	0.02mi
3635 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit J410 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,700	$1.49	24d	1	0.02mi
4204 Heron Way Unit B304 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	4d	1	0.20mi
2306 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	945	$1,700	$1.80	24d	1	0.40mi
3064 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 115 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,250	$1.09	24d	1	0.41mi
3124 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 219 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$2,300	$2.01	24d	1	0.41mi
2901 26th St W #807 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,525	$1.62	3d	1	0.47mi
3506 14th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,725	$1.97	24d	5	0.49mi
4515 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,510	$1.87	2d	14	0.52mi
3512 32nd St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	4d	1	0.56mi
2305 46th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,837	$1.83	2d	10	0.60mi
4444 17th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$2,200	$2.59	24d	1	0.61mi
1308 36th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	715	$1,199	$1.68	24d	1	0.64mi
2001 25th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1370	$3,000	$2.19	20d	1	0.69mi
2201 24th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,950	$1.75	24d	1	0.71mi
4607 21st St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1133	$2,500	$2.21	24d	1	0.71mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,325	$1.77	3d	1	0.79mi
3603 Oxford Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	24d	1	0.79mi
919 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	950	$1,599	$1.68	12d	1	0.81mi
2205 20th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,850	$2.28	12d	1	0.84mi
907 34th Ave W Unit B Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	24d	1	0.84mi
907 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	985	$1,599	$1.62	20d	1	0.84mi
3806 Southern Pkwy W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,176	$1.68	12d	1	0.86mi
4812 27th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,599	$1.75	12d	1	0.91mi
4812 27th St W Unit 4812 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,545	$1.69	12d	1	0.91mi
2004 49th Ave W Unit 2002 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,950	$1.91	24d	1	0.94mi
4906 21st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	16d	1	0.95mi
4906 25th St W #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1070	$1,550	$1.45	24d	1	0.97mi
2409 13th St W Apt 2 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	770	$1,175	$1.53	24d	1	0.97mi
3825 45th Ter W #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1429	$1,550	$1.08	24d	1	0.98mi
3715 45th Ter W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1429	$1,695	$1.19	24d	1	0.98mi
3603 45th Ter W #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	4d	1	0.98mi
2422 11th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,445	$1.61	24d	1	1.00mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,610	$1.89	4d	16	1.00mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	16d	1	1.01mi
4916 18th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,650	$1.41	24d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $646 · $7,752/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $79,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $84,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $84,000 Active
16. 2008-06-13
    listed $99,500
17. 2007-09-15
    listed $109,900
18. 2006-06-20
    listed $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
• − Management: −$1,508
• − HOA: −$7,752
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable loss: −$221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$53
• After-tax cash flow: $641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,946
• Household income: $52,525
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1736.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -310.18%
• Current HPI: 369.8239
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.43%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-37.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $84,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-13 Listed $99,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-15 Listed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-20 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid