44 W Northern St · Hernando, MS 38632

$230,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 884 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1949

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A quiet side street of fifteen modest homes adjacent to the Northside Historic District. Professional landscaping plan by People + Plants was installed in 2019 with native and old fashioned plants on the . 39 acre lot. The landscaping provides a welcoming entrance to the home which includes two bedrooms and one bath with original wood floors, solid wood interior doors with glass door knobs. Popcorn ceiling texture has been removed from the entire home giving it an inviting and contemporary feel. New HVAC and hot water heater installed in 2025 and bathroom upgrade in 2023 with step in tiled shower. Wood plantation shutters installed in living room and large bedroom with blinds in the smaller

Key facts

• New hvac
• Hot water heater
• Original wood floors

Tags

• PROFESSIONAL LANDSCAPING PLAN
• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• SOLID WOOD INTERIOR DOORS
• NEW HVAC
• HOT WATER HEATER
• BATHROOM UPGRADE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-218/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#44 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elem (779 students, 100% FRL); Hernando Middle School (math 75% / reading 57%, grade A-, #2 of 179 statewide, top 1%, 1,150 students, 100% FRL); Hernando High School (math 69% / reading 62%, grade B, #2 of 197 statewide, top 1%, 1,419 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Desoto County School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 407 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,351 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-43,486
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-58,925
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38632

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 407
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $554/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,707

Max offer price $226,785

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $47	+0% $-18	+5% $-83	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-85	+0% $-18	+5% $48	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $40	base $-18	+0.5pp $-78	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $230,000 Active 1446-char remark
16. 1993-08-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $554 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,817 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,263/yr (+$105/mo · 227.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$554
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,034
• After-tax cash flow: $816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 31,374
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 31,374
• Household income: $93,583
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 24.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.49%
• Current HPI: 176.8843
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.43%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $230,000 FSBO.com
• 1993-08-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $554 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.