13126 Chestnut St · Southgate, MI 48195

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,636 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1940 6,970 sqft lot Est $237k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Please call Eugene with any questions

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($147/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.2% in Southgate — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in MI, #582 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-.
• Southgate Community School District (suburban): math 21% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #379 of 540 in MI (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $186,505 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,220
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13218 Mercier St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,504 (-8%)	2mo	$200,000	$133	72
13212 Phelps St	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,852 (+13%)	1mo	$268,000	$145	71
2331 22nd St	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,700 (+4%)	3mo	$280,000	$165	66
12751 Mercier St	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,865 (+14%)	1mo	$282,000	$151	63
13133 Superior St	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,404 (-14%)	3mo	$180,000	$128	63
3427 23rd St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,692 (+3%)	3mo	$210,000	$124	63
12810 Balsam St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-12%)	0mo	$240,000	$167	58
2410 22nd St	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,432 (-12%)	3mo	$235,000	$164	56
13145 Orchard Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,713 (+5%)	3mo	$195,000	$114	54
13820 Catalpa St	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,406 (-14%)	2mo	$250,000	$178	50
12883 Callender St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,820 (+11%)	2mo	$215,000	$118	47
13470 Agnes St	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (-12%)	2mo	$165,000	$114	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,565
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-16,165
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48195

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,955/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,850

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $69	+0% $12	+5% $-44	+10% $-101
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-61	+0% $12	+5% $86	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $63	base $12	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13185 Sycamore St Southgate, MI	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,700	$1.57	25d	1	0.28mi
13020 Pullman St Southgate, MI	4.0	1.0	1050	$1,550	$1.48	3d	1	0.58mi
1650 19th St Wyandotte, MI	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,899	$1.73	19d	1	0.97mi
13165 Turnberry Ct Southgate, MI	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,795	$1.41	44d	1	1.36mi
13165 Turnberry Ct Southgate, MI	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,795	$1.41	6d	1	1.36mi
854 Harrison Blvd Lincoln Park, MI	3.0	1.0	1410	$1,750	$1.24	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   listed $199,900 37-char remark

   Show marketing remark (37 chars)

   Please call Eugene with any questions

2. 2026-05-06
   historical 37-char remark

   Show marketing remark (37 chars)

   Please call Eugene with any questions

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,955 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,955 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,955
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,168
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$760
• After-tax cash flow: $907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southgate Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2632340
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,234
• Composite: 24.83/100
• National rank: #7591
• State rank: #379 of 540 in MI

Livability — Southgate

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #582

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southgate, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 29,366
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 29,366
• Household income: $66,118
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 727.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.28%
• Current HPI: 207.9776
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $199,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,955 · -11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.