1103 Ute Rd · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$168,740

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,662 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1977 10,118 sqft lot $102/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedrooms 2 bathrooms home

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1977; Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition roof; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12x12); Bedroom on the first floor (11x13); Bedroom on the first floor (10x13); Three total rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Llano El (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 366 students, 62% FRL); Llano H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 552 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1223 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,208 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.62%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $490,534
• List price: $168,740
• Delta: -65.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1103 Ute Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,662 (0%)	0mo	$168,740	$102	100
108 Horizon	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,820 (+10%)	14mo	$550,000	$302	57
808 Twin Sails	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,898 (+14%)	11mo	$499,900	$263	52
200 Right Ln Unit A	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,616 (-3%)	14mo	$415,000	$257	49
516 Mountain Dew St	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,848 (+11%)	22mo	$475,000	$257	49
104 Horizon	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,473 (-11%)	19mo	$425,000	$289	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $29,475
• Equity at exit: $57,125

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $91,635
• Equity at exit: $75,545

Cash invested: $47,247 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1223
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$885
• Tax from tax record: −$370 /mo · $4,446/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,678

Max offer price $168,740

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,185
• Closing costs: $5,062
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,275	$0.97	43d	1	0.28mi
306 Out Yonder #154 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1900	$1,550	$0.82	23d	1	0.30mi
1314 Clayton Nolen Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1885	$2,850	$1.51	23d	1	0.32mi
307 Poker Chip Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,995	$1.72	23d	1	0.35mi
400 Green Leaf Unit 319-202 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1141	$1,349	$1.18	23d	1	0.37mi
400 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,349	$1.40	23d	2	0.37mi
400 Hi There #101 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,900	$1.64	43d	1	0.38mi
1406 Prospect Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,700	$1.35	3d	1	0.38mi
402 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	2038	$2,200	$1.08	43d	1	0.41mi
512 Side Saddle Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,700	$1.46	43d	1	0.52mi
102 Prairie Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	2154	$2,700	$1.25	43d	1	0.55mi
200 Full Moon Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1171	$1,800	$1.54	12d	1	0.60mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,950	$1.57	12d	1	0.78mi
100 Bay Point Dr #7 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$2,150	$1.73	10d	1	0.81mi
118 Cap Rock Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.5	2052	$3,800	$1.85	1d	1	0.89mi
1210 Hi Stirrup #209 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	43d	1	0.90mi
1206 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	43d	1	0.91mi
412 Short Circuit #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,650	$1.24	43d	1	0.92mi
106 Dawn #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	23d	1	1.00mi
106 Cross Bow Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1764	$2,900	$1.64	43d	1	1.07mi
104 Cove E #107 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	1.11mi
101 W Bank #14 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$3,500	$2.60	43d	1	1.27mi
203 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,595	$1.42	23d	1	1.29mi
403 Island Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1875	$4,300	$2.29	43d	1	1.31mi
410 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1964	$2,450	$1.25	43d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-04-27
   listed $168,740 Active 27-char remark
2. 2025-11-21
   historical
3. 2025-10-14
   price $329,500
4. 2025-10-14
   price $329,500
5. 2025-10-14
   price
6. 2025-09-03
   price $349,000
7. 2025-09-03
   price $349,000
8. 2025-09-03
   price
9. 2025-08-19
   listed $395,000 Active
10. 2025-07-21
    listed Active
11. 2025-02-04
    historical $1,995
12. 2025-01-28
    price $1,995
13. 2024-12-28
    listed $2,195
14. 2024-12-19
    historical $2,195
15. 2024-12-09
    historical
16. 2024-11-27
    price $2,195
17. 2024-10-22
    price $2,295
18. 2024-10-21
    price $365,000
19. 2024-10-21
    price
20. 2024-10-10
    listed $2,395
21. 2024-09-23
    price $375,000
22. 2024-09-23
    price
23. 2024-08-27
    price $385,000
24. 2024-08-27
    price
25. 2024-07-07
    listed $399,000 Active
26. 2024-07-07
    listed Active
27. 2022-01-12
    soldstatus
28. 2022-01-07
    soldstatus Closed
29. 2021-11-18
    historical Active Under Contract
30. 2021-11-10
    listed $327,900 Active
31. 2021-03-15
    soldstatus
32. 2012-05-04
    soldstatus
33. 2012-05-02
    soldstatus
34. 2012-02-21
    listed $150,000
35. 2005-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,446 · $370/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,446 · $370/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,452
• − Property taxes: −$4,446
• − Insurance: −$844
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,119
• − Management: −$2,119
• − Depreciation: −$4,909
• Taxable income: $2,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$624
• After-tax cash flow: $4,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12.5% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $168,740 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $329,500 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $329,500 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $349,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $349,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $395,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-07-21 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-02-04 Rental Removed $1,995 ACTRIS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $1,995 ACTRIS
• 2024-12-28 Listed for Rent $2,195 ACTRIS
• 2024-12-19 Rental Removed $2,195 ACTRIS
• 2024-12-09 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $2,195 ACTRIS
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $2,295 ACTRIS
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $365,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-10-10 Listed for Rent $2,395 ACTRIS
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $375,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $385,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-07-07 Listed $399,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-07-07 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2022-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-07 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2021-11-18 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2021-11-10 Listed $327,900 Unlock MLS
• 2021-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-05-02 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2012-02-21 Listed $150,000 Unlock MLS
• 2005-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,446 · -14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.