521 Vance St · Paris, IL 61944

$55,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,674 sqft · SingleFamily · 169 Days on market

Built 1906 8,225 sqft lot $33/sqft · 24% below area Est $73k · 24% under ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Need space? a wonderful single family home, with tons of space, just needs a little updating. Beautiful woodwork, could be 3 or 4 bedrooms, 1 bath, nice yard, with a large porch and a 2 car detached garage. Anyone who can install their own roof, this would be a diamond in the rough home. CALL today

Key facts

• Single family home
• Beautiful woodwork
• Large porch

Tags

• SINGLE FAMILY HOME
• BEAUTIFUL WOODWORK
• LARGE PORCH
• NICE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 8.3% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#342 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris-Union SD 95 (town): math 25% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #227 of 620 in IL (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Memorial Elementary School (286 students, 0% FRL); Mayo Middle School (math 30% / reading 54%, grade D-, #116 of 665 statewide, top 19%, 250 students, 0% FRL); Paris Cooperative High School 95 (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #473 of 693 statewide, top 69%, 367 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Edgar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $384 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Edgar County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $48,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.05%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,444
• List price: $55,500
• Delta: -24.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Magnolia Mnr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,646 (-2%)	4mo	$136,000	$83	70
405 W Madison St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,660 (-1%)	3mo	$148,000	$89	64
334 Sutherland Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,586 (-5%)	18mo	$192,500	$121	60
201 Alexander St	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,736 (+4%)	8mo	$99,900	$58	60
414 N Central Ave	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,438 (-14%)	11mo	$70,000	$49	55
507 W Washington St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,607 (-4%)	14mo	$30,000	$19	54
302 S Jefferson St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,640 (-2%)	12mo	$149,900	$91	52
226 E Washington St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,630 (-3%)	13mo	$100,000	$61	50
818 Maple Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+7%)	22mo	$255,000	$142	44
126 Blackburn St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,464 (-12%)	18mo	$93,000	$64	43
502 E Wood St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,450 (-13%)	14mo	$68,000	$47	32
221 W Elizabeth St	0.72mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,897 (+13%)	12mo	$74,900	$39	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $21,639
• Equity at exit: $8,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $58,484
• Equity at exit: $4,799

Cash invested: $15,540 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61944

• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$291
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,864/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $594

Max offer price $55,500

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $511	-5% $496	+0% $480	+5% $464	+10% $448
Rent	-10% $385	-5% $432	+0% $480	+5% $527	+10% $575
Rate	-1.0pp $508	-0.5pp $494	base $480	+0.5pp $465	+1.0pp $451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,875
• Closing costs: $1,665
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,500 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,500 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,500 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,500 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,500 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,500 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,500 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,500 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,500 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,500 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,500 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,500 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,500 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,500 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,500 Active 149 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,500 Active 148 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,500 Active 147 DOM
18. 2026-03-20
    status Active 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Need space? a wonderful single family home, with tons of space, just needs a little updating. Beautiful woodwork, could be 3 or 4 bedrooms, 1 bath, nice yard, with a large porch and a 2 car detached garage. Anyone who can install their own roof, this would be a diamond in the rough home. CALL today

19. 2026-03-20
    price $55,500 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Need space? a wonderful single family home, with tons of space, just needs a little updating. Beautiful woodwork, could be 3 or 4 bedrooms, 1 bath, nice yard, with a large porch and a 2 car detached garage. Anyone who can install their own roof, this would be a diamond in the rough home. CALL today

20. 2026-02-13
    status Active 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Need space? a wonderful single family home, with tons of space, just needs a little updating. Beautiful woodwork, could be 3 or 4 bedrooms, 1 bath, nice yard, with a large porch and a 2 car detached garage. Anyone who can install their own roof, this would be a diamond in the rough home. CALL today

21. 2026-01-19
    status Pending 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Need space? a wonderful single family home, with tons of space, just needs a little updating. Beautiful woodwork, could be 3 or 4 bedrooms, 1 bath, nice yard, with a large porch and a 2 car detached garage. Anyone who can install their own roof, this would be a diamond in the rough home. CALL today

22. 2025-11-04
    listed $59,900 Active 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Need space? a wonderful single family home, with tons of space, just needs a little updating. Beautiful woodwork, could be 3 or 4 bedrooms, 1 bath, nice yard, with a large porch and a 2 car detached garage. Anyone who can install their own roof, this would be a diamond in the rough home. CALL today

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,864 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,864 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,109
• − Property taxes: −$1,864
• − Insurance: −$278
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,154
• − Management: −$1,154
• − Depreciation: −$1,615
• Taxable income: $5,248
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,260
• After-tax cash flow: $4,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris-Union SD 95
• NCES district ID: 1730750
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,294
• Composite: 27.73/100
• National rank: #6901
• State rank: #227 of 620 in IL

Livability — Paris

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #6933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, IL
• City population: 11,426
• Population (ZIP): 11,426

Population outlook (Edgar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,960 people
• By 2030: 14,978 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 12,990 · -18.6%
• By 2050: 11,087 · -30.5%
• By 2075: 7,338 · -54.0%
• By 2100: 4,526 · -71.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Edgar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.0% · R 75.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.48%
• Current HPI: 108.1718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Relisted — CIBR
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $55,500 CIBR
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — CIBR
• 2026-01-19 Pending — CIBR
• 2025-11-04 Listed $59,900 CIBR

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,864 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.