🌊 Lakefront
806 S Quiett Ave · Gonzales, LA
Flood risk 9/10 · Severe
- FEMA flood zone
- AE
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,737 – $8,500
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,269 – $2,357
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 107°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 21 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Schools +4.7/10.0
- Rent growth +3.3/5.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$64,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Manufactured home with four bedrooms and two full bathrooms. Large living room. Open kitchen with an island. Spacious master bedroom with en suite.
Key facts
- 3,920 sq ft lot
- Parking
- Built 2002
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $930 ($11k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
- Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 31.4% vs local median 4.5% in Gonzales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 65/100 on livability (#135 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
- Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 571 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
- What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
- Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 3.46% ✓
- Cap rate
- 31.37%
- Cash-on-cash
- 89.56%
- DSCR
- 4.98
- GRM
- 2.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $237,935
- List price
- $64,900
- Delta
- -72.72%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 1 within 2.0 mi
Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39384 W Worthey Rd | 0.68mi | 4/2.0 | 2,128 (+6%) | 12mo | $229,000 | $108 | 49 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.26% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 60.8%
- Equity multiple
- 3.73×
- Total profit
- $49,556
- Equity at exit
- $9,677
- IRR
- 65.6%
- Equity multiple
- 7.77×
- Total profit
- $122,943
- Equity at exit
- $5,611
Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Louisiana
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 70737
- Rents YoY
- 3.3%
- Active inventory
- 571
- Price-to-rent
- 2.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,244 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$340
- Tax from tax record
- −$49 /mo · $589/yr
- Insurance
- −$27
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$471
- Net cashflow
- $930
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $966 | -5% $948 | +0% $930 | +5% $911 | +10% $893 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $752 | -5% $841 | +0% $930 | +5% $1,018 | +10% $1,107 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $962 | -0.5pp $946 | base $930 | +0.5pp $913 | +1.0pp $896 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $16,225
- Closing costs
- $1,947
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 5 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39511 Auster Ln Gonzales, LA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1461 | $2,150 | $1.47 | 15d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 2137 S Commerce Ave #113 Gonzales, LA | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1800 | $1,650 | $0.92 | 44d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 222 E Sanders St Gonzales, LA | 5.0 | 3.5 | 2866 | $2,775 | $0.97 | 44d | 1 | 0.92mi |
| 39534 Legacy Lake Dr Gonzales, LA | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2100 | $2,000 | $0.95 | 15d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 38510 Maidens Blush St Gonzales, LA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1422 | $2,200 | $1.55 | 44d | 1 | 1.48mi |
Listing history 33 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $64,900 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $64,900 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $64,900 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $64,900 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $64,900 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $64,900 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $64,900 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $64,900 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $64,900 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $64,900 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $64,900 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $64,900 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $64,900 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $64,900 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $64,900 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-05-31pricedays on market $64,900 Active 79 DOM
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2026-04-26price $89,900 147-char remark
Show marketing remark (147 chars)
Manufactured home with four bedrooms and two full bathrooms. Large living room. Open kitchen with an island. Spacious master bedroom with en suite.
-
2026-04-26price $89,900 147-char remark
Show marketing remark (147 chars)
Manufactured home with four bedrooms and two full bathrooms. Large living room. Open kitchen with an island. Spacious master bedroom with en suite.
-
2026-03-11$99,900 Active 147-char remark
Show marketing remark (147 chars)
Manufactured home with four bedrooms and two full bathrooms. Large living room. Open kitchen with an island. Spacious master bedroom with en suite.
-
2026-03-11$99,900 Active 147-char remark
Show marketing remark (147 chars)
Manufactured home with four bedrooms and two full bathrooms. Large living room. Open kitchen with an island. Spacious master bedroom with en suite.
-
2025-09-08price $110,000
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2025-09-08price $110,000
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2025-08-18price $120,500
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2025-08-18price $120,500
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2025-08-05price $125,500
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2025-08-05price $125,500
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2025-07-25price $139,500
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2025-07-25price $139,500
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2025-07-21price $140,000
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2025-07-21price $140,000
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2025-05-21$150,000 Active
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2025-05-21$150,000 Active
-
2003-03-25soldstatus
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $589 · $49/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $589 · $49/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $26,926
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,635
- − Property taxes
- −$589
- − Insurance
- −$5,443
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,154
- − Management
- −$2,154
- − Depreciation
- −$1,888
- Taxable income
- $11,062
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$2,655
- After-tax cash flow
- $8,500/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Ascension Parish
- NCES district ID
- 2200090
- Math proficiency
- 48% ▼ -31.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 58% ▼ -25.00%
- Median HH income
- $68,423
- Composite
- 47.0/100
- National rank
- #2347
- State rank
- #7 of 98 in LA
Livability — Gonzales
- Score
- 65/100
- State rank
- #135
- US rank
- #12429
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Gonzales, LA
- County
- Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
- City population
- 49,084
- Metro
- Baton Rouge, LA
- Population (ZIP)
- 49,084
- Household income
- $82,521
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 863.0
Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 145,480 people
- By 2030
- 158,329 · +8.8%
- By 2040
- 183,741 · +26.3%
- By 2050
- 207,615 · +42.7%
- By 2075
- 260,244 · +78.9%
- By 2100
- 289,576 · +99.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 59% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 6%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
- Foreign-born
- 7% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Ascension
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -89.49%
- Current HPI
- 145.3384
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 3.26%
- Metro
- Baton Rouge, LA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.29%
- F500 in state
- 10
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Telecommunications | 2 | $23B |
|
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| Utilities | 1 | $12B |
|
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| Wholesale / Distribution | 1 | $5B |
|
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| Advertising | 1 | $2B |
|
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Price history
-40.1% since first listed17 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-26 Price Changed $89,900 AcadianaMLS
- 2026-04-26 Price Changed $89,900 GBRMLS
- 2026-03-11 Listed $99,900 GBRMLS
- 2026-03-11 Listed $99,900 AcadianaMLS
- 2025-09-08 Price Changed $110,000 AcadianaMLS
- 2025-09-08 Price Changed $110,000 GBRMLS
- 2025-08-18 Price Changed $120,500 AcadianaMLS
- 2025-08-18 Price Changed $120,500 GBRMLS
- 2025-08-05 Price Changed $125,500 AcadianaMLS
- 2025-08-05 Price Changed $125,500 GBRMLS
- 2025-07-25 Price Changed $139,500 GBRMLS
- 2025-07-25 Price Changed $139,500 AcadianaMLS
- 2025-07-21 Price Changed $140,000 AcadianaMLS
- 2025-07-21 Price Changed $140,000 GBRMLS
- 2025-05-21 Listed $150,000 GBRMLS
- 2025-05-21 Listed $150,000 AcadianaMLS
- 2003-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
Property tax history
+0.0%/yrLatest (2025): $589 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…