930 Sycamore Ridge Ln · Houston, TX 77073

$210,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 286 Days on market

Built 2005 5,985 sqft lot $122/sqft · at area comps Est $219k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting 2-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2.1 bathrooms, offering ample space for your needs. The home includes a 2-car garage. The spacious backyard is fully fenced, offering privacy and a great space for outdoor activities. Nestled in a friendly neighborhood with easy access to schools, shopping, and parks.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Fully fenced
• Easy access to parks

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• FULLY FENCED
• EASY ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($412/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 159 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask is 56% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.70%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,747
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -4.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
806 Sycamore Ridge Ln	0.10mi	4/2.5	1,890 (+10%)	9mo	$248,000	$131	72
910 Sycamore Trace Ct	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,520 (-12%)	11mo	$220,000	$145	63
20703 Sycamore Wood Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,590 (-8%)	20mo	$219,900	$138	62
631 Gateship Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,822 (+6%)	5mo	$199,900	$110	59
623 Gateship Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,643 (-4%)	14mo	$225,000	$137	54
20911 New Leaf Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,788 (+4%)	12mo	$255,000	$143	53
20906 Gate View Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,925 (+12%)	10mo	$260,000	$135	47
1007 Lavender Shade Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,679 (-2%)	18mo	$209,900	$125	45
1207 Lavender Shade Ct	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,844 (+7%)	16mo	$255,000	$138	43
20919 New Leaf Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,515 (-12%)	4mo	$235,000	$155	42
21006 Vista Trail Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+11%)	16mo	$255,000	$134	39
19943 Black Pearl Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,541 (-10%)	7mo	$219,000	$142	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.68% appreciation · 0.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-15,105
• Equity at exit: $53,955

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,826
• Equity at exit: $59,489

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77073

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$366 /mo · $4,390/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,010

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $94	+0% $34	+5% $-25	+10% $-85
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-47	+0% $34	+5% $115	+10% $197
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $88	base $34	+0.5pp $-20	+1.0pp $-75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
920 Century Plaza Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1298	$1,799	$1.39	2d	1	0.41mi
19959 Oland Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2005	$1,800	$0.90	25d	1	0.83mi
1514 Glasholm Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	22d	1	0.85mi
1418 Spencer Glen Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,900	$1.23	17d	1	1.07mi
1430 Great Easton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,875	$1.20	10d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Pending 286 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Pending 285 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Pending 284 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $210,000 Pending 281 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $210,000 Pending 280 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $210,000 Pending 279 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $210,000 Pending 278 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $210,000 Pending 277 DOM
9. 2026-05-02
   status Active 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   This inviting 2-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2.1 bathrooms, offering ample space for your needs. The home includes a 2-car garage. The spacious backyard is fully fenced, offering privacy and a great space for outdoor activities. Nestled in a friendly neighborhood with easy access to schools, shopping, and parks.

10. 2026-04-29
    status Pending 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This inviting 2-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2.1 bathrooms, offering ample space for your needs. The home includes a 2-car garage. The spacious backyard is fully fenced, offering privacy and a great space for outdoor activities. Nestled in a friendly neighborhood with easy access to schools, shopping, and parks.

11. 2026-04-22
    status Pending 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This inviting 2-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2.1 bathrooms, offering ample space for your needs. The home includes a 2-car garage. The spacious backyard is fully fenced, offering privacy and a great space for outdoor activities. Nestled in a friendly neighborhood with easy access to schools, shopping, and parks.

12. 2026-03-21
    price $210,000 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This inviting 2-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2.1 bathrooms, offering ample space for your needs. The home includes a 2-car garage. The spacious backyard is fully fenced, offering privacy and a great space for outdoor activities. Nestled in a friendly neighborhood with easy access to schools, shopping, and parks.

13. 2025-10-31
    price $228,000 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This inviting 2-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2.1 bathrooms, offering ample space for your needs. The home includes a 2-car garage. The spacious backyard is fully fenced, offering privacy and a great space for outdoor activities. Nestled in a friendly neighborhood with easy access to schools, shopping, and parks.

14. 2025-09-18
    price $230,000 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This inviting 2-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2.1 bathrooms, offering ample space for your needs. The home includes a 2-car garage. The spacious backyard is fully fenced, offering privacy and a great space for outdoor activities. Nestled in a friendly neighborhood with easy access to schools, shopping, and parks.

15. 2025-08-23
    price $235,000 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This inviting 2-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2.1 bathrooms, offering ample space for your needs. The home includes a 2-car garage. The spacious backyard is fully fenced, offering privacy and a great space for outdoor activities. Nestled in a friendly neighborhood with easy access to schools, shopping, and parks.

16. 2025-08-23
    listed $135,000 Active 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This inviting 2-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2.1 bathrooms, offering ample space for your needs. The home includes a 2-car garage. The spacious backyard is fully fenced, offering privacy and a great space for outdoor activities. Nestled in a friendly neighborhood with easy access to schools, shopping, and parks.

17. 2019-05-28
    soldstatus
18. 2013-08-27
    historical 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    Wonderful entertaining home master down, open floor plan light and bright. Large back yard schools are in the neighborhood. Hurry! this one will not last long. .. .

19. 2013-08-09
    soldstatus
20. 2013-08-07
    soldstatus Sold 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    Wonderful entertaining home master down, open floor plan light and bright. Large back yard schools are in the neighborhood. Hurry! this one will not last long. .. .

21. 2013-06-11
    status Pending 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    Wonderful entertaining home master down, open floor plan light and bright. Large back yard schools are in the neighborhood. Hurry! this one will not last long. .. .

22. 2013-05-22
    status Pending, Continue to Show 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    Wonderful entertaining home master down, open floor plan light and bright. Large back yard schools are in the neighborhood. Hurry! this one will not last long. .. .

23. 2013-05-06
    listed $89,995 Active 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    Wonderful entertaining home master down, open floor plan light and bright. Large back yard schools are in the neighborhood. Hurry! this one will not last long. .. .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,390 · $366/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,390 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,637
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$4,390
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,013
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$723
• After-tax cash flow: $1,135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,084
• Household income: $78,592
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 27% Two or more races 24% White 9% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Current HPI: 215.8688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+133.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $228,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-23 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-06-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-05-06 Listed $89,995 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,390 · -8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.