310 Fairview St · Carlisle, PA 17015

$145,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,848 sqft · Townhouse public records

Built 1986 $150/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedrooms, 1.5 bath end unit townhouse in Willaway Condominiums w/ full finished basement. Lots of space for you and your family. Some recent renovations completed. Nice deck and yard in rear.

Key facts

• $150 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $598 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.7% in Carlisle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#297 in PA, #2,632 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• South Middleton SD (town): math 45% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #106 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: W.G. Rice El Sch (432 students, 38% FRL); Yellow Breeches Ms (math 27% / reading 59%, grade D-, #214 of 512 statewide, top 42%, 474 students, 31% FRL); Boiling Springs Hs (math 72% / reading 72%, grade B+, #39 of 437 statewide, top 9%, 777 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.67%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,680
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 Fairview St	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,608 (-13%)	0mo	$140,000	$87	78
134 Sable Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,629 (-12%)	1mo	$223,000	$137	44
41 Abbey Ct	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (-14%)	11mo	$263,000	$166	34
319 Pelham Ct	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,584 (-14%)	8mo	$307,000	$194	33
315 Pelham Ct	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,584 (-14%)	8mo	$316,725	$200	33
317 Pelham Ct	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,584 (-14%)	9mo	$240,000	$152	32
22 Abbey Ct	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,654 (-10%)	21mo	$265,000	$160	28
313 Pelham Ct	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,584 (-14%)	13mo	$329,700	$208	28
202 Sable Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,629 (-12%)	23mo	$240,200	$147	27
116 Sable Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,570 (-15%)	18mo	$231,000	$147	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $14,706
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $62,352
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17015

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,219 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,209/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $598

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,462

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
315 York Rd Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,100	$1.31	14d	1	0.42mi
134 Sable Dr Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.5	1629	$2,100	$1.29	14d	1	0.69mi
308 Alfalfa Dr CARLISLE BRKS, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,150	$1.32	23d	1	1.08mi
206 Alfalfa Dr CARLISLE BRKS, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,050	$1.26	23d	1	1.08mi
79 Dawn Ridge Loop Carlisle, PA	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1179	$1,474	$1.25	14d	4	1.18mi
495 S Spring Garden St #109 Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,150	$1.32	23d	1	1.32mi
495 S Spring Garden St #202 Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,050	$1.26	23d	1	1.32mi
495 S Spring Garden St #308 Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$1,835	$1.13	43d	1	1.32mi
495 S Spring Garden St Unit 302 Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$1,735	$1.07	43d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $145,000
2. 2026-05-12
   historical
3. 2006-12-29
   soldstatus $127,900 193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   3 bedrooms, 1.5 bath end unit townhouse in Willaway Condominiums w/ full finished basement. Lots of space for you and your family. Some recent renovations completed. Nice deck and yard in rear.

4. 2006-12-20
   soldstatus $127,900
5. 2006-11-08
   listed $127,900 193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   3 bedrooms, 1.5 bath end unit townhouse in Willaway Condominiums w/ full finished basement. Lots of space for you and your family. Some recent renovations completed. Nice deck and yard in rear.

6. 1986-09-22
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,209 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,250 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$41/yr (+$3/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,209
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,130
• − Management: −$2,130
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $5,289
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,269
• After-tax cash flow: $5,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Middleton SD
• NCES district ID: 4222050
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,822
• Composite: 47.74/100
• National rank: #2236
• State rank: #106 of 539 in PA

Livability — Carlisle

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #297
• US rank: #2632

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• City population: 62,898
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,385
• Household income: $86,981
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.66%
• Current HPI: 265.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+123.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-12-29 Sold (MLS) $127,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $127,900 Public Records
• 2006-11-08 Listed $127,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1986-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,209 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.