3764 E Prospect Ave · Vernon, NY 13476

$35,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,908 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 1840 Poor condition 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1840
• Listed 29 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story existing residence
• Construction: Wood siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Irregular lot; Located in a flood zone

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Hardwood and varied flooring throughout; Full basement; See remarks / other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $839 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#685 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Sherrill City School District (rural): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #439 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($242 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1840 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $34,475 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1840 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.76%
• DSCR: 5.57
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,844
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4583 Verona St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,873 (-2%)	18mo	$153,700	$82	59
5256 Cooper St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,679 (-12%)	7mo	$150,000	$89	54
9 Van Epps St	0.22mi	4/1.5	1,636 (-14%)	19mo	$169,000	$103	48
5266 Cooper St	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,700 (-11%)	24mo	$243,500	$143	41
4383 Stuhlman Rd	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,824 (-4%)	13mo	$370,000	$203	37
5049 State Route 5	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,832 (-4%)	16mo	$280,000	$153	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.96×
• Total profit: $58,394
• Equity at exit: $16,488

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.48×
• Total profit: $132,139
• Equity at exit: $26,009

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13476

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $839

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $863	-5% $851	+0% $839	+5% $827	+10% $815
Rent	-10% $731	-5% $785	+0% $839	+5% $893	+10% $947
Rate	-1.0pp $857	-0.5pp $848	base $839	+0.5pp $830	+1.0pp $821

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $35,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $35,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $35,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $35,000 Active
17. 2024-07-28
    historical
18. 2023-07-28
    listed $30,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $10,116
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,428
• After-tax cash flow: $7,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including exterior cleaning, interior updates, HVAC and mechanical repairs, and landscaping. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to a livable condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Vines and debris cover the exterior, indicating neglect.
• Major Roof — No visible damage, but the overall condition suggests potential issues.
• Major Flooring — No visible flooring, but the condition of the exterior suggests neglect.
• Major Interior walls/paint — No visible interior, but the exterior suggests neglect.
• Major Windows — No visible windows, but the exterior suggests neglect.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible systems, but the exterior suggests neglect.
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and debris around the property, indicating neglect.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior cleaning — Improving curb appeal and making the property presentable for potential buyers or renters.
• Both Interior painting and repairs — Updating the interior will make the home more attractive and functional for potential buyers or renters.
• Both HVAC and mechanical repairs — Ensuring the HVAC and mechanical systems are functioning properly will make the home more comfortable and energy-efficient for potential buyers or renters.
• Both Roof repair or replacement — A new roof will protect the home from water damage and improve its overall appearance.
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing the flooring will make the home more comfortable and functional for potential buyers or renters.
• Both Window replacement — Replacing the windows will improve energy efficiency and make the home more comfortable for potential buyers or renters.
• Both Exterior siding repair or replacement — Repairing or replacing the exterior siding will improve the home's appearance and protect it from the elements.
• Both HVAC and mechanical repairs — Ensuring the HVAC and mechanical systems are functioning properly will make the home more comfortable and energy-efficient for potential buyers or renters.
• Both Landscaping and exterior cleaning — Improving curb appeal and making the property presentable for potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Vines and debris cover the exterior, indicating neglect.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · No visible damage, but the overall condition suggests potential issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No visible flooring, but the condition of the exterior suggests neglect.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No visible interior, but the exterior suggests neglect.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No visible windows, but the exterior suggests neglect.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible systems, but the exterior suggests neglect.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Overgrown vegetation and debris around the property, indicating neglect.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior cleaning — Improving curb appeal and making the property presentable for potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior painting and repairs — Updating the interior will make the home more attractive and functional for potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical repairs — Ensuring the HVAC and mechanical systems are functioning properly will make the home more comfortable and energy-efficient for potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Roof repair or replacement — A new roof will protect the home from water damage and improve its overall appearance. ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing the flooring will make the home more comfortable and functional for potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Window replacement — Replacing the windows will improve energy efficiency and make the home more comfortable for potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Exterior siding repair or replacement — Repairing or replacing the exterior siding will improve the home's appearance and protect it from the elements. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical repairs — Ensuring the HVAC and mechanical systems are functioning properly will make the home more comfortable and energy-efficient for potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping and exterior cleaning — Improving curb appeal and making the property presentable for potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sherrill City School District
• NCES district ID: 3626760
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,927
• Composite: 39.76/100
• National rank: #3888
• State rank: #439 of 590 in NY

Livability — Vernon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #685
• US rank: #12950

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vernon, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,540

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Current HPI: 293.015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+16.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $35,000 CNYIS
• 2024-07-28 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2023-07-28 Listed $30,000 CNYIS