40 Open Range Trail Plan · Willis, TX 77318

$99,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 332 Days on market

Fair condition $64/sqft · 17% below area Est $120k · 17% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 1568 sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer, from the pool area to the new playground and community paths, unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Act now, and ask about our move-in specials!

Key facts

• Listed 331 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.30%
• DSCR: 2.93
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,000
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -16.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $41,827
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $94,967
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $1,009

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	4d	1	1.22mi
14210 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,850	$1.15	4d	1	1.25mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	44d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 332 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 331 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 330 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 329 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 327 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 323 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 322 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 321 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 318 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 317 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 316 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 315 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 314 DOM
14. 2025-10-15
    status Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 1568 sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer, from the pool area to the new playground and community paths, unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Act now, and ask about our move-in specials!

15. 2025-10-14
    historical 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 1568 sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer, from the pool area to the new playground and community paths, unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Act now, and ask about our move-in specials!

16. 2025-09-26
    status Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 1568 sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer, from the pool area to the new playground and community paths, unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Act now, and ask about our move-in specials!

17. 2025-09-26
    historical 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 1568 sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer, from the pool area to the new playground and community paths, unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Act now, and ask about our move-in specials!

18. 2025-09-18
    price $99,900 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 1568 sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer, from the pool area to the new playground and community paths, unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Act now, and ask about our move-in specials!

19. 2025-09-16
    status Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 1568 sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer, from the pool area to the new playground and community paths, unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Act now, and ask about our move-in specials!

20. 2025-09-16
    historical 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 1568 sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer, from the pool area to the new playground and community paths, unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Act now, and ask about our move-in specials!

21. 2025-09-14
    status Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 1568 sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer, from the pool area to the new playground and community paths, unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Act now, and ask about our move-in specials!

22. 2025-09-14
    historical 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 1568 sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer, from the pool area to the new playground and community paths, unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Act now, and ask about our move-in specials!

23. 2025-08-22
    status Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 1568 sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer, from the pool area to the new playground and community paths, unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Act now, and ask about our move-in specials!

24. 2025-08-22
    historical 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 1568 sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer, from the pool area to the new playground and community paths, unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Act now, and ask about our move-in specials!

25. 2025-07-28
    status Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 1568 sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer, from the pool area to the new playground and community paths, unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Act now, and ask about our move-in specials!

26. 2025-07-28
    historical 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 1568 sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer, from the pool area to the new playground and community paths, unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Act now, and ask about our move-in specials!

27. 2025-07-22
    listed $109,900 Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Ready for a fresh start? Embrace the excitement of homeownership in RockRose Ranch with our exclusive move-in specials! Seize the chance to experience comfort in 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering 1568 sq. ft. of modern living space. This community has so much to offer, from the pool area to the new playground and community paths, unlock the convenience that you've been searching for! Act now, and ask about our move-in specials!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,066
• − Management: −$2,066
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $11,188
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,685
• After-tax cash flow: $9,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Key areas needing attention include the kitchen, bathrooms, flooring, and exterior. Painting and replacing worn-out components can significantly boost its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen countertops — Significant wear and tear, likely requiring replacement.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Dated and worn, likely requiring replacement.
• Major Flooring — Worn and may need replacement.
• Major Interior walls — Peeling paint and wear, likely requiring repainting.
• Major Exterior siding — Worn and discoloration, likely requiring replacement.
• Major Windows — Old and may need replacement.
• Major HVAC system — Old and likely requiring maintenance or replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Resale Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops can enhance the kitchen's functionality and appearance, increasing its value.
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can make the bathrooms more appealing and functional, boosting resale value.
• Resale Replace exterior siding — A fresh exterior can greatly improve the home's curb appeal and overall appearance, increasing its resale value.
• Resale Replace windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and the home's overall appearance, increasing its resale value.
• Resale Replace HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing the home's appeal and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen countertops · Significant wear and tear, likely requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Dated and worn, likely requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn and may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Peeling paint and wear, likely requiring repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Worn and discoloration, likely requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Old and may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · Old and likely requiring maintenance or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops can enhance the kitchen's functionality and appearance, increasing its value. ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can make the bathrooms more appealing and functional, boosting resale value. ↑
• Resale Replace exterior siding — A fresh exterior can greatly improve the home's curb appeal and overall appearance, increasing its resale value. ↑
• Resale Replace windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and the home's overall appearance, increasing its resale value. ↑
• Resale Replace HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing the home's appeal and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-15 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-14 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-26 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-26 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $99,900 Zillow
• 2025-09-16 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-16 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-14 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-14 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-08-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-08-22 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-28 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-28 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-22 Listed $109,900 Zillow