2414 NW 121st Ave · Gainesville, FL 32609

$244,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1983 1.13 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don''t miss this great opportunity to live in an outstanding neighborhood, close to town, and on a beautiful acre plus lot. Older mobile home on property needs work but in decent condition. Being sold As-Is along with all utilities. Priced to sell.

Key facts

• Semi-updated kitchen
• Non-hoa neighborhood
• New carpet

Tags

• NON-HOA NEIGHBORHOOD
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW CARPET
• SEMI-UPDATED KITCHEN
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• 2025 ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property subtype: Manufactured Home; Lot size about 1.13 acres; Zoning: A; Unfurnished; No CDD; Direction faces: South
• HOA & community: No association; Development: Seminole Woods

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; South-facing; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built area approximately 1,056 (public records)
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $244k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($179/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W. W. Irby Elementary School (379 students, 66% FRL); A. L. Mebane Middle School (math 36% / reading 40%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 332 students, 61% FRL); Santa Fe High School (math 35% / reading 56%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,154 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,921/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 1037% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $244k implies a 741% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,076 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-36,642
• Equity at exit: $36,381

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-22,514
• Equity at exit: $21,097

Cash invested: $68,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32609

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,921 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,280
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,455/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,902

Max offer price $244,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $84	+0% $15	+5% $-54	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-61	+0% $15	+5% $91	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $138	-0.5pp $77	base $15	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,000
• Closing costs: $7,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $244,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 42 DOM
19. 2026-04-18
    listed $249,000 Active 635-char remark
20. 2026-04-17
    historical
21. 2026-02-16
    price $249,000
22. 2025-10-27
    listed $250,000 Active
23. 2015-11-12
    soldstatus $29,000

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Don''t miss this great opportunity to live in an outstanding neighborhood, close to town, and on a beautiful acre plus lot. Older mobile home on property needs work but in decent condition. Being sold As-Is along with all utilities. Priced to sell.

24. 2015-08-03
    listed $28,500

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Don''t miss this great opportunity to live in an outstanding neighborhood, close to town, and on a beautiful acre plus lot. Older mobile home on property needs work but in decent condition. Being sold As-Is along with all utilities. Priced to sell.

25. 1983-08-01
    soldstatus $11,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,455 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,025 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$570/yr (+$48/mo · 39.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,668
• − Property taxes: −$1,455
• − Insurance: −$1,220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,844
• − Management: −$1,844
• − Depreciation: −$7,098
• Taxable loss: −$4,080
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$979
• After-tax cash flow: $1,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,752
• Household income: $49,406
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1037.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.25%
• Current HPI: 304.1951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2021.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $244,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Listed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-12 Sold (MLS) $29,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-03 Listed $28,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1983-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,455 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.