1516 Bay Area Blvd Unit B8 · Houston, TX 77058

$93,700

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 936 sqft · Condo public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1977 $375/mo HOA · 31% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained second-floor condo ideally located near UH Clear Lake, NASA Johnson Space Center, Ellington Field, SpaceX, and Kemah Boardwalk. This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath unit features an open-concept living and dining layout with tile and wood laminate flooring throughout—no carpet. The living area opens to a private balcony through French doors, offering outdoor space and additional storage. The kitchen includes granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet space. Both bedrooms are generously sized with good natural light. Baywind Condo community amenities include a clubhouse and swimming pool. Property is suitable for owner-occupants or investment use due to location, condition, and functional layout.

Key facts

• Second-floor condo
• Private balcony
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• SECOND-FLOOR CONDO
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $65k (30.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $648 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 15 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; HOA is 31% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,950 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.44%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.22% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-19,325
• Equity at exit: $21,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-27,425
• Equity at exit: $21,902

Cash invested: $26,236 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77058

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,197 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$491
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,439/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,403

Max offer price $64,950

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,425
• Closing costs: $2,811
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1500 Bay Area Blvd Unit R195 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	24d	1	0.06mi
1500 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	43d	1	0.08mi
1620 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	685	$1,350	$1.97	3d	21	0.15mi
1245 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,062	$1.25	24d	1	0.15mi
1424 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$1,254	$1.72	19d	1	0.19mi
1707 Gemini St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	946	$1,109	$1.17	43d	1	0.19mi
1707 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	652	$940	$1.44	19d	1	0.19mi
1707 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	652	$940	$1.44	21d	1	0.19mi
1730 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	938	$1,266	$1.35	24d	1	0.21mi
1730 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	761	$981	$1.29	43d	1	0.21mi
1730 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	761	$981	$1.29	22d	1	0.21mi
1306 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	660	$1,180	$1.79	43d	1	0.28mi
1239 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	670	$955	$1.43	13d	1	0.29mi
1239 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	670	$955	$1.43	24d	1	0.29mi
1239 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	43d	1	0.29mi
1239 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,099	$1.37	7d	1	0.29mi
1300 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,949	$2.04	2d	32	0.34mi
2000 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	841	$1,764	$2.10	1d	18	0.45mi
47 Buccaneer Ln Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$935	$1.28	43d	1	0.56mi
47 Buccaneer Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	24d	1	0.56mi
47 Buccaneer Ln Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$935	$1.28	17d	1	0.56mi
16457 El Camino Real Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	813	$1,299	$1.60	2d	28	0.60mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 16221 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	682	$838	$1.23	13d	1	0.75mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 16251 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	682	$833	$1.22	43d	1	0.75mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 16257 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$1,112	$1.14	43d	1	0.75mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$994	$1.02	3d	1	0.75mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$1,002	$1.03	5d	1	0.75mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$1,002	$1.03	7d	1	0.75mi
16202 El Camino Real Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$916	$1.31	15d	1	0.76mi
16306 Sea Lark Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	909	$1,083	$1.19	43d	1	0.76mi
16100 Center Blvd Unit 16151 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	678	$925	$1.36	43d	1	0.76mi
16100 Center Blvd Unit 16157 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	903	$1,319	$1.46	43d	1	0.76mi
16100 Center Blvd Spc Center Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,411	$1.74	1d	12	0.77mi
16106 Center Blvd Spc Center Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	687	$920	$1.34	43d	1	0.77mi
16202 El Camino Real Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	919	$1,290	$1.40	5d	1	0.78mi
16202 El Camino Real Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	851	$965	$1.13	7d	1	0.78mi
16202 El Camino Real Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	919	$1,282	$1.39	3d	1	0.78mi
16202 El Camino Real Unit 1112 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	851	$962	$1.13	3d	1	0.78mi
16202 El Camino Real Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	919	$1,290	$1.40	7d	1	0.83mi
16202 El Camino Real Unit 16253 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$832	$1.19	43d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $93,700 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $93,700 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-05-19
   price $1,250
4. 2026-05-18
   listed $93,700 Active 738-char remark

   Show marketing remark (738 chars)

   Well-maintained second-floor condo ideally located near UH Clear Lake, NASA Johnson Space Center, Ellington Field, SpaceX, and Kemah Boardwalk. This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath unit features an open-concept living and dining layout with tile and wood laminate flooring throughout—no carpet. The living area opens to a private balcony through French doors, offering outdoor space and additional storage. The kitchen includes granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet space. Both bedrooms are generously sized with good natural light. Baywind Condo community amenities include a clubhouse and swimming pool. Property is suitable for owner-occupants or investment use due to location, condition, and functional layout.

5. 2026-05-18
   historical

   Show marketing remark (738 chars)

   Well-maintained second-floor condo ideally located near UH Clear Lake, NASA Johnson Space Center, Ellington Field, SpaceX, and Kemah Boardwalk. This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath unit features an open-concept living and dining layout with tile and wood laminate flooring throughout—no carpet. The living area opens to a private balcony through French doors, offering outdoor space and additional storage. The kitchen includes granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet space. Both bedrooms are generously sized with good natural light. Baywind Condo community amenities include a clubhouse and swimming pool. Property is suitable for owner-occupants or investment use due to location, condition, and functional layout.

6. 2026-05-08
   listed $1,350
7. 2026-05-04
   status Active
8. 2026-05-04
   price $95,500
9. 2026-04-30
   historical
10. 2026-03-02
    price $99,000
11. 2025-12-30
    listed $104,800 Active
12. 2025-12-21
    historical $1,250
13. 2025-12-02
    listed $1,250
14. 2025-11-25
    historical
15. 2025-10-27
    historical $1,250
16. 2025-10-27
    price $110,000
17. 2025-10-20
    listed $1,250
18. 2025-10-08
    historical $1,250
19. 2025-10-08
    listed $1,250
20. 2025-10-07
    price $120,000
21. 2025-09-02
    listed $130,000 Active
22. 2025-05-07
    historical $1,350
23. 2025-04-04
    listed $1,350
24. 2025-04-02
    historical $1,350
25. 2025-03-14
    price $1,350
26. 2024-12-18
    price $1,500
27. 2024-12-09
    price $1,699
28. 2024-11-20
    price $1,750
29. 2024-11-07
    listed $1,800
30. 2024-06-10
    soldstatus
31. 2024-06-07
    soldstatus Sold
32. 2024-06-03
    status Pending
33. 2024-05-30
    status Option Pending
34. 2024-04-17
    listed $106,500 Active
35. 2024-02-11
    status Pending
36. 2024-02-02
    status Option Pending
37. 2024-02-02
    historical
38. 2024-01-18
    price $105,000
39. 2024-01-08
    price $111,000
40. 2023-09-15
    listed $125,000 Active
41. 2023-05-30
    soldstatus
42. 2023-05-24
    soldstatus Sold
43. 2023-05-07
    status Pending
44. 2023-04-26
    status Option Pending
45. 2023-04-20
    listed $125,000 Active
46. 2023-03-23
    historical
47. 2023-02-09
    price $110,000
48. 2023-02-09
    price $111,990
49. 2023-01-28
    price $112,500
50. 2023-01-22
    listed $113,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,439 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,439 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,249
• − Property taxes: −$2,439
• − Insurance: −$468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,149
• − Management: −$1,149
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$2,726
• Taxable loss: −$3,313
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$795
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,240
• Composite: 46.49/100
• National rank: #2431
• State rank: #114 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,850
• Household income: $68,722
• Rent vs Own: 68.8% rent · 31.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Asian 10% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.22%
• Current HPI: 225.0251
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.0% since first listed

55 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $1,250 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $93,700 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed for Rent $1,350 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $95,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $104,800 HARMLS
• 2025-12-21 Rental Removed $1,250 HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed for Rent $1,250 HARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Rental Removed $1,250 HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed for Rent $1,250 HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Rental Removed $1,250 HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed for Rent $1,250 HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-07 Rental Removed $1,350 HARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed for Rent $1,350 HARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Rental Removed $1,350 HARMLS
• 2025-03-14 Price Changed $1,350 HARMLS
• 2024-12-18 Price Changed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2024-12-09 Price Changed $1,699 HARMLS
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $1,750 HARMLS
• 2024-11-07 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2024-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-06-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-05-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-04-17 Listed $106,500 HARMLS
• 2024-02-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-02-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-02-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-01-18 Price Changed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-08 Price Changed $111,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-15 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-20 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-02-09 Price Changed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-09 Price Changed $111,990 HARMLS
• 2023-01-28 Price Changed $112,500 HARMLS
• 2023-01-22 Listed $113,990 HARMLS
• 2016-08-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-07-18 Listed $41,000 HARMLS
• 2004-10-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-02-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,439 · -10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.