21 Lama Dr · Shirley, NY 11967

$469,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,956 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1973 9,148 sqft lot Est $634k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don’t miss this opportunity! This spacious High Ranch single-family home offers 1,956 sq ft of living space on a 9,148 sq ft lot, perfectly positioned mid-block in a central Shirley location close to everything. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 1.5 full bathrooms, this home includes an eat-in kitchen, a large attached 1-car garage, and a 4-car driveway—plenty of parking for multiple vehicles. The ground level provides access to the rear yard, garage, and includes a bathroom, laundry room, bonus room, and a very large family room—ideal for entertaining, extended living space, or potential guest quarters. The property is being sold “As Is” with no contingencies, and a qu

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $469k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $952 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $469k).
• Recommended offer: $462k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.8% in Shirley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nathaniel Woodhull Elementary School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade D, #1,191 of 2,108 statewide, top 57%, 703 students, 54% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($462k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $469k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $461,965 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.70%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $633,744
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Tipton Dr W	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,808 (-8%)	0mo	$620,000	$343	76
41 Lama Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,798 (-8%)	1mo	$630,000	$350	76
55 Lama Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,998 (+2%)	8mo	$615,000	$308	69
39 Appel Dr E	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,950 (-0%)	0mo	$665,000	$341	67
32 Rockledge Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,736 (-11%)	3mo	$520,000	$300	59
70 Breston Dr E	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,041 (+4%)	0mo	$628,000	$308	56
45 Arrowhead Dr	0.48mi	3/3.0	2,112 (+8%)	5mo	$600,000	$284	54
11 Happy Acres Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,722 (-12%)	12mo	$630,000	$366	50
10 Helene Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,775 (-9%)	13mo	$590,000	$332	42
30 Beacon St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-13%)	13mo	$550,000	$324	38
118 Lexington Rd	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,137 (+9%)	4mo	$540,000	$253	37
63 Linden Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,171 (+11%)	11mo	$600,000	$276	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-15,239
• Equity at exit: $69,929

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $65,379
• Equity at exit: $40,551

Cash invested: $131,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,443 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,459
• Tax from tax record: −$694 /mo · $8,324/yr
• Insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,143
• Net cashflow: $952

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,239

Max offer price $469,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,250
• Closing costs: $14,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
357 Smith Rd Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,500	$3.25	2d	1	1.10mi
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	1d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-04
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-20
   listed $469,000 Active
3. 2025-11-17
   historical $469,000
4. 1987-09-24
   soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,324 · $694/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,324 · $694/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $65,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,271
• − Property taxes: −$8,324
• − Insurance: −$2,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,226
• − Management: −$5,226
• − Depreciation: −$13,644
• Taxable income: $4,285
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,028
• After-tax cash flow: $10,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+275.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Listed $469,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Coming Soon $469,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,324 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.