3112 Winecup Rd · Celina, TX 75009

$329,510

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,584 sqft · Other public records · 91 Days on market

Built 2026 4,400 sqft lot $208/sqft · 12% below area Est $357k · 8% under $92/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Carmichael at 3112 Winecup Road in North Sky Celina. This two-story home is designed for modern living with an open layout that brings the kitchen, casual dining, and great room together-perfect for everyday life and easy entertaining. A convenient powder room is tucked downstairs for guests. Upstairs, the private primary suite offers a walk-in shower and a spacious closet. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bath, and the laundry room is close by for added ease. Life in Celina is full of charm, from festive downtown events to the highly rated Celina ISD. At North Sky, neighbors enjoy planned amenities like a sparkling pool with shaded cabanas, a playground, and a dog park. Plus, with quick access to Dallas North Tollway, US 380, and US 75, you're just a short drive from the heart of Dallas. Additional Highlights include: gourmet Kitchen, gas stub outdoors, covered patio, upgraded cabinets, farm sink, and smart home features. MLS#21119775

Key facts

• Dog park
• Walk-in shower
• Spacious closet

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• SPACIOUS CLOSET
• SHADED CABANAS
• PLAYGROUND
• DOG PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2895 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($168k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $237,546 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $357,009
• List price: $329,510
• Delta: -7.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-70,953
• Equity at exit: $49,131

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-102,636
• Equity at exit: $28,490

Cash invested: $92,263 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2895
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,375 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,728
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,008/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,584

Max offer price $300,422

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,378
• Closing costs: $9,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3116 Winecup Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1882	$2,500	$1.33	15d	1	0.01mi
121 Tornillo Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1693	$2,449	$1.45	44d	1	0.19mi
3301 Little Bluestem Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1907	$2,499	$1.31	4d	1	0.21mi
109 Tornillo Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1518	$2,300	$1.52	24d	1	0.21mi
100 Barn Swallow Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1949	$2,400	$1.23	22d	1	0.31mi
3220 Dillonwood St Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,099	$1.03	44d	1	0.92mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $329,510 Pending 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,510 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,510 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $329,510 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $334,510 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $334,510 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $334,510 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $334,510 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $334,510 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    status Active 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Welcome to the Carmichael at 3112 Winecup Road in North Sky Celina. This two-story home is designed for modern living with an open layout that brings the kitchen, casual dining, and great room together-perfect for everyday life and easy entertaining. A convenient powder room is tucked downstairs for guests. Upstairs, the private primary suite offers a walk-in shower and a spacious closet. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bath, and the laundry room is close by for added ease. Life in Celina is full of charm, from festive downtown events to the highly rated Celina ISD. At North Sky, neighbors enjoy planned amenities like a sparkling pool with shaded cabanas, a playground, and a dog park. Plus, with quick access to Dallas North Tollway, US 380, and US 75, you're just a short drive from the heart of Dallas. Additional Highlights include: gourmet Kitchen, gas stub outdoors, covered patio, upgraded cabinets, farm sink, and smart home features. MLS#21119775

11. 2026-05-18
    price $344,510 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Welcome to the Carmichael at 3112 Winecup Road in North Sky Celina. This two-story home is designed for modern living with an open layout that brings the kitchen, casual dining, and great room together-perfect for everyday life and easy entertaining. A convenient powder room is tucked downstairs for guests. Upstairs, the private primary suite offers a walk-in shower and a spacious closet. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bath, and the laundry room is close by for added ease. Life in Celina is full of charm, from festive downtown events to the highly rated Celina ISD. At North Sky, neighbors enjoy planned amenities like a sparkling pool with shaded cabanas, a playground, and a dog park. Plus, with quick access to Dallas North Tollway, US 380, and US 75, you're just a short drive from the heart of Dallas. Additional Highlights include: gourmet Kitchen, gas stub outdoors, covered patio, upgraded cabinets, farm sink, and smart home features. MLS#21119775

12. 2026-04-17
    price $344,510 1113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1113 chars)

    New Construction - March Completion! Built by Taylor Morrison, America's Most Trusted Homebuilder. Welcome to the Carmichael at 3112 Winecup Road in North Sky Celina. This two-story home is designed for modern living with an open layout that brings the kitchen, casual dining, and great room together - perfect for everyday life and easy entertaining. A convenient powder room is tucked downstairs for guests. Upstairs, the private primary suite offers a walk-in shower and a spacious closet. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bath, and the laundry room is close by for added ease. Life in Celina is full of charm, from festive downtown events to the highly rated Celina ISD. At North Sky, neighbors enjoy planned amenities like a sparkling pool with shaded cabanas, a playground, and a dog park. Plus, with quick access to Dallas North Tollway, US 380, and US 75, you're just a short drive from the heart of Dallas. Additional Highlights include: gourmet Kitchen, gas stub outdoors, covered patio, upgraded cabinets, farm sink, and smart home features. Photos are for representative purposes only. MLS#21119775

13. 2026-04-17
    status Active 1113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1113 chars)

    New Construction - March Completion! Built by Taylor Morrison, America's Most Trusted Homebuilder. Welcome to the Carmichael at 3112 Winecup Road in North Sky Celina. This two-story home is designed for modern living with an open layout that brings the kitchen, casual dining, and great room together - perfect for everyday life and easy entertaining. A convenient powder room is tucked downstairs for guests. Upstairs, the private primary suite offers a walk-in shower and a spacious closet. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bath, and the laundry room is close by for added ease. Life in Celina is full of charm, from festive downtown events to the highly rated Celina ISD. At North Sky, neighbors enjoy planned amenities like a sparkling pool with shaded cabanas, a playground, and a dog park. Plus, with quick access to Dallas North Tollway, US 380, and US 75, you're just a short drive from the heart of Dallas. Additional Highlights include: gourmet Kitchen, gas stub outdoors, covered patio, upgraded cabinets, farm sink, and smart home features. Photos are for representative purposes only. MLS#21119775

14. 2026-01-13
    historical 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Welcome to the Carmichael at 3112 Winecup Road in North Sky Celina. This two-story home is designed for modern living with an open layout that brings the kitchen, casual dining, and great room together-perfect for everyday life and easy entertaining. A convenient powder room is tucked downstairs for guests. Upstairs, the private primary suite offers a walk-in shower and a spacious closet. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bath, and the laundry room is close by for added ease. Life in Celina is full of charm, from festive downtown events to the highly rated Celina ISD. At North Sky, neighbors enjoy planned amenities like a sparkling pool with shaded cabanas, a playground, and a dog park. Plus, with quick access to Dallas North Tollway, US 380, and US 75, you're just a short drive from the heart of Dallas. Additional Highlights include: gourmet Kitchen, gas stub outdoors, covered patio, upgraded cabinets, farm sink, and smart home features. MLS#21119775

15. 2026-01-12
    price $374,510 1113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1113 chars)

    New Construction - March Completion! Built by Taylor Morrison, America's Most Trusted Homebuilder. Welcome to the Carmichael at 3112 Winecup Road in North Sky Celina. This two-story home is designed for modern living with an open layout that brings the kitchen, casual dining, and great room together - perfect for everyday life and easy entertaining. A convenient powder room is tucked downstairs for guests. Upstairs, the private primary suite offers a walk-in shower and a spacious closet. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bath, and the laundry room is close by for added ease. Life in Celina is full of charm, from festive downtown events to the highly rated Celina ISD. At North Sky, neighbors enjoy planned amenities like a sparkling pool with shaded cabanas, a playground, and a dog park. Plus, with quick access to Dallas North Tollway, US 380, and US 75, you're just a short drive from the heart of Dallas. Additional Highlights include: gourmet Kitchen, gas stub outdoors, covered patio, upgraded cabinets, farm sink, and smart home features. Photos are for representative purposes only. MLS#21119775

16. 2025-12-08
    listed $374,010 Active 1113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1113 chars)

    New Construction - March Completion! Built by Taylor Morrison, America's Most Trusted Homebuilder. Welcome to the Carmichael at 3112 Winecup Road in North Sky Celina. This two-story home is designed for modern living with an open layout that brings the kitchen, casual dining, and great room together - perfect for everyday life and easy entertaining. A convenient powder room is tucked downstairs for guests. Upstairs, the private primary suite offers a walk-in shower and a spacious closet. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bath, and the laundry room is close by for added ease. Life in Celina is full of charm, from festive downtown events to the highly rated Celina ISD. At North Sky, neighbors enjoy planned amenities like a sparkling pool with shaded cabanas, a playground, and a dog park. Plus, with quick access to Dallas North Tollway, US 380, and US 75, you're just a short drive from the heart of Dallas. Additional Highlights include: gourmet Kitchen, gas stub outdoors, covered patio, upgraded cabinets, farm sink, and smart home features. Photos are for representative purposes only. MLS#21119775

17. 2025-11-23
    listed $452,635 Active 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Welcome to the Carmichael at 3112 Winecup Road in North Sky Celina. This two-story home is designed for modern living with an open layout that brings the kitchen, casual dining, and great room together-perfect for everyday life and easy entertaining. A convenient powder room is tucked downstairs for guests. Upstairs, the private primary suite offers a walk-in shower and a spacious closet. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bath, and the laundry room is close by for added ease. Life in Celina is full of charm, from festive downtown events to the highly rated Celina ISD. At North Sky, neighbors enjoy planned amenities like a sparkling pool with shaded cabanas, a playground, and a dog park. Plus, with quick access to Dallas North Tollway, US 380, and US 75, you're just a short drive from the heart of Dallas. Additional Highlights include: gourmet Kitchen, gas stub outdoors, covered patio, upgraded cabinets, farm sink, and smart home features. MLS#21119775

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,008 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,030 · $503/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,022/yr (+$419/mo · 498.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,458
• − Property taxes: −$1,008
• − Insurance: −$1,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,280
• − Management: −$2,280
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$9,586
• Taxable loss: −$7,858
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,886
• After-tax cash flow: $-90/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $344,510 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $344,510 NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-01-13 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $374,510 NTREIS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $374,010 NTREIS
• 2025-11-23 Listed $452,635 Zillow

Property tax history

-11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,008 · -11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.