12670 School House Rd · Middlesex, NC 27557

$91,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,532 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 201 Days on market

Built 1915 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Imagine what this house can encompass with your creativity. This classic Colonial, 2,585 sq ft, is full of character and ready to be reimagined. This a true fixer upper that has the basics. Plenty of space, Fireplaces, natural light and opportunity. Bring it back to life. Honor its history. Make it yours.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1915
• Listed 200 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.24 acres; County: Nash
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Utilities: Sewer: other; Water: other; Public maintained road; Asphalt road surface
• Home design: Two-story home; Fixer condition
• Construction: Other construction materials; Built area approximately 2,585 total building area
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Other foundation

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating present (type: other); Cooling present (type: other)
• Interior features: Three fireplaces; Fireplace(s) present; Other flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $91k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $838 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $91k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#551 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Nash-Rocky Mount Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #155 of 178 in NC (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Southern Nash Middle (math 20% / reading 35%, grade F, #368 of 475 statewide, top 78%, 798 students, 69% FRL); Southern Nash High (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #409 of 535 statewide, top 77%, 1,070 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 500 units permitted in Nash County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($629 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Nash County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $69k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $91k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.45%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $372,204
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12760 W Hanes Ave	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,220 (-12%)	4mo	$327,000	$147	60
12790 W Hanes Ave	0.22mi	3/2.5	2,220 (-12%)	18mo	$300,000	$135	48
12780 W Hanes Ave	0.22mi	3/2.5	2,230 (-12%)	20mo	$329,900	$148	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $89,295
• Equity at exit: $67,483

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.61×
• Total profit: $219,423
• Equity at exit: $132,407

Cash invested: $25,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27557

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,814 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$477
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $962/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $838

Break-even live

Break-even rent $754

Max offer price $91,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,750
• Closing costs: $2,730
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $91,000 Active 201 DOM
2. 2026-04-10
   price $91,000
3. 2026-02-27
   status Active
4. 2026-02-02
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-04
   price $115,000
6. 2025-12-15
   status Active
7. 2025-10-16
   status Pending
8. 2025-10-11
   status Active
9. 2025-08-19
   status Pending
10. 2025-08-10
    price $127,000
11. 2025-07-15
    price $140,000
12. 2025-06-25
    listed $160,000 Active
13. 2025-05-02
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $962 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $962 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,097
• − Property taxes: −$962
• − Insurance: −$455
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,741
• − Management: −$1,741
• − Depreciation: −$2,647
• Taxable income: $9,123
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,189
• After-tax cash flow: $7,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nash-Rocky Mount Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703270
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,553
• Composite: 22.04/100
• National rank: #8198
• State rank: #155 of 178 in NC

Livability — Middlesex

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #20308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middlesex, NC
• Population (ZIP): 8,407

Population outlook (Nash County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 91,107 people
• By 2030: 89,193 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 84,959 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,517 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 72,941 · -19.9%
• By 2100: 63,602 · -30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Nash

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+0.2 2012: D+0.9 2008: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.73%
• Current HPI: 311.489
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+65.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $91,000 TMLS
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — TMLS
• 2026-02-02 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $115,000 TMLS
• 2025-12-15 Relisted — TMLS
• 2025-10-16 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-10-11 Relisted — TMLS
• 2025-08-19 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-08-10 Price Changed $127,000 TMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $140,000 TMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $160,000 TMLS
• 2025-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $962 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.