3751 S Nellis Blvd #307 · Paradise, NV 89121

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured · 37 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2026 Good condition $73/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.7

Listing remarks

Amazing Value!! Don't Miss Out!!

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.5% in Paradise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#10 in NV, #3,494 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A-, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, crime D-.
• Clark County School District (urban): math 21% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #11 of 17 in NV (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smith Hal Es (math 6% / reading 12%, grade F, #396 of 402 statewide, top 99%, 708 students, 100% FRL); Harney Kathleen & Tim Ms (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #81 of 109 statewide, top 74%, 1,279 students, 100% FRL); Chaparral Hs (math 3% / reading 15%, grade F, #128 of 131 statewide, top 98%, 2,256 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 52% district-wide (48 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 12% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Clark County School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 599 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 14,754 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (2,301 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.35%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,000
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -63.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3650 Arbolado Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+2%)	1mo	$245,000	$196	79
3635 Huerta Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	12mo	$297,000	$221	55
3500 Cape Cod Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+1%)	22mo	$270,000	$216	52
3579 Isle Royale Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-6%)	4mo	$115,000	$100	49
3489 Big Sur Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+9%)	7mo	$286,500	$213	48
5039 Sitka Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+9%)	24mo	$272,000	$202	42
3415 Big Sur Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-6%)	20mo	$274,500	$238	42
4931 Vista Flora Way	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+10%)	19mo	$212,000	$157	42
3657 Isle Royale Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+9%)	12mo	$251,000	$187	40
4948 Vista Flora Way	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,056 (-14%)	9mo	$286,000	$271	38
3560 Haleakala Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-14%)	4mo	$160,000	$152	36
3423 Cape Cod Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+9%)	17mo	$300,000	$223	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $7,489
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $25,159
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 71 Landlord-Friendly
• State Nevada: 71 Landlord-Friendly · R+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; Clark County (Vegas) had pandemic backlogs; generally landlord-friendly but courts slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 57 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 42.8 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $122,900 ($91/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +117.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 89121

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 599
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $437	+0% $406	+5% $375	+10% $344
Rent	-10% $303	-5% $354	+0% $406	+5% $457	+10% $509
Rate	-1.0pp $451	-0.5pp $429	base $406	+0.5pp $383	+1.0pp $359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3850 Mountain Vista St Las Vegas, NV	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,442	$1.80	0d	8	0.33mi
3800 S Nellis Blvd Las Vegas, NV	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	943	$1,565	$1.66	0d	13	0.34mi
3654 Vista del Monte Dr Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,799	$1.70	0d	1	0.35mi
5051 Sitka Ln Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,225	$0.97	139d	1	0.43mi
5101 E Twain Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$1,150	$1.47	139d	4	0.45mi
4455 E Twain Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$1,293	$1.65	0d	6	0.47mi
3956 Clear View Dr Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1306	$2,600	$1.99	113d	1	0.48mi
4880 Pancho Villa Dr Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0	1288	$1,600	$1.24	10d	1	0.59mi
3599 Fort McHenry Dr Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0	977	$1,495	$1.53	42d	1	0.60mi
4331 Cicada Way Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1155	$2,695	$2.33	6d	1	0.62mi
3481 Cape Cod Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	99d	1	0.63mi
4014 Great Plains Way Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,548	$1.34	100d	1	0.63mi
3490 Death Valley Dr Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,550	$1.24	10d	1	0.65mi
4264 White Sands Ave Las Vegas, NV	4.0	2.0	1392	$1,650	$1.19	107d	1	0.70mi
4943 Lana Dr Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,900	$1.47	42d	1	0.71mi
4952 E Harmon Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	800	$1,900	$2.38	119d	1	0.73mi
4745 Marnell Dr Las Vegas, NV	4.0	2.0	1352	$1,800	$1.33	10d	1	0.85mi
3640 Yorba Linda Dr Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,895	$1.33	10d	1	0.86mi
4047 Grasmere Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	3.0	1476	$1,950	$1.32	5d	1	0.97mi
5421 E Harmon Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	523	$1,175	$2.25	0d	16	1.02mi
3150 S Nellis Blvd Las Vegas, NV	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$2,006	$2.05	0d	9	1.07mi
4392 Springdale Ct Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	875	$1,900	$2.17	42d	1	1.08mi
4382 Del Santos Dr Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,500	$1.74	10d	1	1.10mi
3400 Cabana Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0–3.0	2.0	1124	$1,540	$1.37	7d	3	1.11mi
3400 Cabana Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0–3.0	2.0	1124	$1,350	$1.20	117d	2	1.11mi
3400 Cabana Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,352	$1.28	83d	2	1.11mi
3400 Cabana Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0–3.0	2.0	1124	$1,540	$1.37	2d	2	1.11mi
3400 Cabana Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,262	$1.20	42d	1	1.11mi
3400 Cabana Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0–3.0	2.0	1124	$1,540	$1.37	6d	3	1.11mi
3400 Cabana Dr #2019 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,350	$1.28	110d	1	1.11mi
5055 Blanton Dr Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.5	1342	$1,995	$1.49	40d	1	1.12mi
5055 Blanton Dr Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,995	$1.49	10d	1	1.12mi
3037 Aloha Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,700	$1.34	64d	1	1.13mi
3021 Aloha Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,700	$1.34	42d	1	1.15mi
4379 Hilldale Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	954	$1,485	$1.56	103d	1	1.15mi
3055 S Nellis Blvd Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	983	$1,429	$1.45	0d	34	1.17mi
4607 Dealers Choice Way #101 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,535	$1.44	42d	1	1.18mi
4800 E Tropicana Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$1,495	$1.53	0d	38	1.18mi
4800 E Tropicana Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$1,495	$1.53	119d	5	1.18mi
4549 Oakdale Ave Las Vegas, NV	4.0	2.0	1496	$1,800	$1.20	94d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $89,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-05-02
   status Active 32-char remark
6. 2026-05-02
   historical 32-char remark
7. 2026-04-26
   listed $89,900 Active 32-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $3,656
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$878
• After-tax cash flow: $3,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,160–$18,480 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. Minor updates such as painting and landscaping can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and marketability, especially for younger buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 12/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Smith Hal Es F NV #396/402 Nat'l #39,659/41,679 Middle Harney Kathleen & Tim Ms F NV #81/109 Nat'l #12,017/14,009 High Chaparral Hs F NV #128/131 Nat'l #16,600/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clark County School District
• NCES district ID: 3200060
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,611
• Composite: 26.48/100
• National rank: #7211
• State rank: #11 of 17 in NV

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Paradise

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3494

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paradise, NV
• County: Clark County · 2,504,101 people
• City population: 227,885
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• Population (ZIP): 68,406
• Household income: $55,758
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,504,101 people
• By 2030: 2,693,770 · +7.6%
• By 2040: 3,061,208 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 3,400,072 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 4,139,522 · +65.3%
• By 2100: 4,596,916 · +83.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 31% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.4% · R 47.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+10.7 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -241.85%
• Current HPI: 302.201
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.10%
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• F500 in state: 6

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NV)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Hotels / Casinos	3	$36B