Richmond Plan · Connerton, FL 34637

$453,690

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,092 sqft · SingleFamily · 391 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 391 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 20421 Rose Cottage Way, Land O Lakes, FL 34637; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $451,190

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Richmond plan); New construction — listed as Plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3,092 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Richmond (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $453,690 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $627,676.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $454k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $433k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $395k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $395k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 391 days — a 12% lower offer ($399k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $394,813 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 391 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.32%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $627,676
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8836 Handel Loop	0.26mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,853 (-8%)	4mo	$487,000	$171	66
8831 Garden Party Dr	0.19mi	5/4.5 (-1)	2,933 (-5%)	16mo	$595,000	$203	58
20142 Lace Cascade Rd	0.58mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,116 (+1%)	12mo	$815,000	$262	56
8742 Handel Loop	0.25mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,531 (+14%)	8mo	$685,000	$194	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-147,817
• Equity at exit: $135,452

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-202,436
• Equity at exit: $128,960

Cash invested: $175,749 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,948 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,292
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$785 /mo · $9,415/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$829
• Net cashflow: $-1,344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,649

Max offer price $433,210

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-910	-5% $-1,127	+0% $-1,344	+5% $-1,561	+10% $-1,778
Rent	-10% $-1,656	-5% $-1,500	+0% $-1,344	+5% $-1,188	+10% $-1,032
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,028	-0.5pp $-1,184	base $-1,344	+0.5pp $-1,507	+1.0pp $-1,672

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,919
• Closing costs: $18,830
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20411 Lace Cascade Rd Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.5	4359	$5,400	$1.24	26d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $453,690 Active 391 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $453,690 Active 390 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $453,190 Active 390 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $453,190 Active 389 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $453,190 Active 388 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $452,690 Active 388 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $452,690 Active 386 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $452,190 Active 382 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $452,190 Active 381 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    price $451,690 Active 380 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $451,190 Active 380 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $451,190 Active 377 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $451,190 Active 376 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $451,190 Active 375 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $451,190 Active 374 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $451,190 Active 373 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,378
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,160
• − Property taxes: −$9,415
• − Insurance: −$4,641
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,790
• − Management: −$3,790
• − Depreciation: −$18,260
• Taxable loss: −$27,678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,643
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B