HAWTHORN Plan · Lavon, TX 75166

$249,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,574 sqft · SingleFamily · 164 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Hawthorn plan from D. R Horton, one of our new duplex floorplans featuring a seamless blend of modern design and functionality at our new home community Elevon in Lavon, TX. This charming duplex floorplan at Elevon offers a blend of comfort and functionality, designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles. The exterior of the duplex includes beautiful brick and stone elevation and several divided light windows. Enter the home through the covered front porch. This leads you into a foyer entry, that brings you right into the kitchen that features quality kitchen cabinets with hidden hinges and crown moldings, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The kitchen layout includes an island, built-in sink, dishwasher and large pantry for plenty of storage space. Next to the kitchen is a powder bathroom for convenience downstairs. All three bedrooms are located upstairs along with the utility room and the primary and secondary bathrooms. The large primary bedroom features an elongated vanity and a non-framed mirror. The primary bathroom also includes a spacious walk-in closet. This plan includes ceramic tile flooring in all bathrooms, laminate wood plank in living areas, and carpet in bedrooms. Additional bonus features include a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package. Photos shown here may not depict the specified townhome. Contact us today for more details!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Hidden hinges
• Crown moldings

Tags

• BRICK AND STONE ELEVATION
• DIVIDED LIGHT WINDOWS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• QUALITY KITCHEN CABINETS
• HIDDEN HINGES
• CROWN MOLDINGS

🏗️ New construction. The $249,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $306,170.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-258 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.4% in Lavon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 750 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.61%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,170
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -18.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
657 Glee Stem Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+0%)	1mo	$288,990	$183	83
587 Cherish Day Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-2%)	4mo	$283,990	$185	76
631 Dove Haven Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+4%)	3mo	$303,990	$186	74
753 Sunglow Way	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-8%)	3mo	$295,990	$204	70
605 Cozy Grns	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-11%)	2mo	$249,900	$178	69
769 Sunglow Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-8%)	3mo	$294,995	$203	69
635 Dove Haven Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-8%)	2mo	$295,990	$204	69
703 Walkabout Pl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-9%)	4mo	$304,490	$213	64
654 Walkabout Pl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-10%)	2mo	$267,990	$190	64
554 Beck Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+14%)	1mo	$324,999	$181	55
519 Chase Creek Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+14%)	3mo	$329,999	$183	49
383 Rockstream Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+14%)	4mo	$314,990	$175	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-65,990
• Equity at exit: $45,651

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-78,453
• Equity at exit: $26,472

Cash invested: $85,728 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 55 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,999 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 172 d
• This list price: 2% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 750
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,352 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,606
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$383 /mo · $4,593/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,678

Max offer price $268,881

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-152	+0% $-258	+5% $-363	+10% $-469
Rent	-10% $-444	-5% $-351	+0% $-258	+5% $-165	+10% $-72
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-180	base $-258	+0.5pp $-337	+1.0pp $-418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,543
• Closing costs: $9,185
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
649 Lightheart Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	12d	1	0.01mi
600 Blooming Glade Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	42d	1	0.10mi
613 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1905	$2,300	$1.21	93d	1	0.13mi
849 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,000	$1.37	3d	1	0.31mi
848 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,095	$1.31	12d	1	0.31mi
621 Cherish Day Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,045	$1.45	12d	1	0.32mi
860 Moonwake Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,800	$1.39	93d	1	0.34mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	42d	1	0.34mi
455 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,063	$2.04	0d	72	0.35mi
918 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,900	$1.18	93d	1	0.36mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,675	$1.83	52d	1	0.36mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,250	$1.55	7d	1	0.36mi
358 Rockstream Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2201	$2,395	$1.09	73d	1	0.42mi
402 Coyote Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2114	$2,295	$1.09	1d	1	0.71mi
179 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,495	$1.38	19d	1	0.83mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$1,718	$1.67	4d	20	0.89mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Unit 819 Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,372	$1.14	93d	1	0.97mi
361 Elevon Pkwy Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,399	$1.16	41d	1	0.97mi
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	93d	1	1.12mi
257 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2164	$2,500	$1.16	42d	1	1.12mi
209 Little Bridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$2,400	$1.25	48d	1	1.14mi
360 Elevon Pkwy Unit 9107 Lavon, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,425	$1.18	7d	1	1.22mi
151 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	871	$2,333	$2.68	0d	80	1.38mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $249,990 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $249,990 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $249,990 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $249,990 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $249,990 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $249,990 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $249,990 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $249,990 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $249,990 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $249,990 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $249,990 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $249,990 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $249,990 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $249,990 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $249,990 Active 142 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $249,990 Active 141 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $249,990 Active 140 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $249,990 Active 139 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $249,990 Active 138 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $249,990 Active 137 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $249,990 Active 136 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $249,990 Active 135 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $249,990 Active 134 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $249,990 Active 132 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $249,990 Active 131 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $249,990 Active 130 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $249,990 Active 129 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 128 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $249,990 Active 127 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 126 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $249,990 Active 125 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $249,990 Active 124 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $249,990 Active 123 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $249,990 Active 121 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $249,990 Active 119 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $249,990 Active 117 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $249,990 Active 116 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $249,990 Active 113 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $249,990 Active 112 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $249,990 Active 111 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $249,990 Active 110 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $249,990 Active 108 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $249,990 Active 107 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,990 Active 104 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,990 Active 103 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,990 Active 102 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 99 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 98 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,990 Active 97 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,150
• − Property taxes: −$4,593
• − Insurance: −$1,531
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,258
• − Management: −$2,258
• − Depreciation: −$8,907
• Taxable loss: −$8,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,033
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,870–$23,610 screening

This Hawthorn plan from D.R. Horton is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring a brick and stone exterior and a well-designed floor plan. Updates such as painting, landscaping, new flooring, and modernizing the kitchen would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and adds value ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $249,990 Zillow