HAWTHORN Plan · Lavon, TX 75166

$249,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,574 sqft · SingleFamily · 113 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Hawthorn plan from D. R Horton, one of our new duplex floorplans featuring a seamless blend of modern design and functionality at our new home community Elevon in Lavon, TX. This charming duplex floorplan at Elevon offers a blend of comfort and functionality, designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles. The exterior of the duplex includes beautiful brick and stone elevation and several divided light windows. Enter the home through the covered front porch. This leads you into a foyer entry, that brings you right into the kitchen that features quality kitchen cabinets with hidden hinges and crown moldings, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The kitchen layout includes an island, built-in sink, dishwasher and large pantry for plenty of storage space. Next to the kitchen is a powder bathroom for convenience downstairs. All three bedrooms are located upstairs along with the utility room and the primary and secondary bathrooms. The large primary bedroom features an elongated vanity and a non-framed mirror. The primary bathroom also includes a spacious walk-in closet. This plan includes ceramic tile flooring in all bathrooms, laminate wood plank in living areas, and carpet in bedrooms. Additional bonus features include a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package. Photos shown here may not depict the specified townhome. Contact us today for more details!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Hidden hinges
• Crown moldings

Tags

• BRICK AND STONE ELEVATION
• DIVIDED LIGHT WINDOWS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• QUALITY KITCHEN CABINETS
• HIDDEN HINGES
• CROWN MOLDINGS

🏗️ New construction. The $249,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,754.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 634 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.36%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,754
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -18.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
587 Cherish Day Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-2%)	3mo	$283,990	$185	77
651 Walkabout Pl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-2%)	4mo	$289,990	$189	76
631 Dove Haven Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+4%)	2mo	$303,990	$186	76
753 Sunglow Way	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-8%)	2mo	$295,990	$204	72
605 Cozy Grns	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-11%)	1mo	$249,900	$178	70
769 Sunglow Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-8%)	1mo	$294,995	$203	70
635 Dove Haven Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-8%)	0mo	$295,990	$204	70
703 Walkabout Pl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-9%)	3mo	$304,490	$213	66
656 Chipper Trl	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-8%)	4mo	$274,990	$190	63
701 Chipper Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-9%)	4mo	$278,990	$195	62
519 Chase Creek Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+14%)	1mo	$329,999	$183	51
383 Rockstream Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+14%)	2mo	$314,990	$175	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-64,771
• Equity at exit: $45,589

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-75,907
• Equity at exit: $26,436

Cash invested: $85,611 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,371 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,586/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,675

Max offer price $271,081

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-28	-5% $-134	+0% $-240	+5% $-345	+10% $-451
Rent	-10% $-427	-5% $-333	+0% $-240	+5% $-146	+10% $-52
Rate	-1.0pp $-86	-0.5pp $-162	base $-240	+0.5pp $-319	+1.0pp $-399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,438
• Closing costs: $9,173
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 Blooming Glade Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	6d	1	0.10mi
613 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1905	$2,300	$1.21	44d	1	0.13mi
849 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,200	$1.51	13d	1	0.31mi
860 Moonwake Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,800	$1.39	44d	1	0.34mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	19d	1	0.34mi
455 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,033	$2.01	2d	80	0.35mi
918 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,900	$1.18	44d	1	0.36mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,675	$1.83	3d	1	0.36mi
358 Rockstream Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2201	$2,395	$1.09	25d	1	0.42mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,029	$1.77	4d	26	0.89mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Unit 819 Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,372	$1.14	44d	1	0.97mi
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	44d	1	1.12mi
151 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	871	$2,345	$2.69	1d	108	1.38mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,990 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,990 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,990 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-02-25
    listed $249,990 Active 1436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1436 chars)

    Welcome to the Hawthorn plan from D. R Horton, one of our new duplex floorplans featuring a seamless blend of modern design and functionality at our new home community Elevon in Lavon, TX. This charming duplex floorplan at Elevon offers a blend of comfort and functionality, designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles. The exterior of the duplex includes beautiful brick and stone elevation and several divided light windows. Enter the home through the covered front porch. This leads you into a foyer entry, that brings you right into the kitchen that features quality kitchen cabinets with hidden hinges and crown moldings, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The kitchen layout includes an island, built-in sink, dishwasher and large pantry for plenty of storage space. Next to the kitchen is a powder bathroom for convenience downstairs. All three bedrooms are located upstairs along with the utility room and the primary and secondary bathrooms. The large primary bedroom features an elongated vanity and a non-framed mirror. The primary bathroom also includes a spacious walk-in closet. This plan includes ceramic tile flooring in all bathrooms, laminate wood plank in living areas, and carpet in bedrooms. Additional bonus features include a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package. Photos shown here may not depict the specified townhome. Contact us today for more details!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,127
• − Property taxes: −$4,586
• − Insurance: −$1,529
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,277
• − Management: −$2,277
• − Depreciation: −$8,895
• Taxable loss: −$8,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,976
• After-tax cash flow: $-899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Hawthorn plan from D.R. Horton is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring a brick and stone exterior and a well-designed floor plan. Updates such as painting, landscaping, new flooring, and modernizing the kitchen would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and adds value
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and adds value ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $249,990 Zillow