300 Varnville Way · The Villages, FL 32162

$269,800

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2006 3,520 sqft lot Est $298k · 10% under $195/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Enjoy The Villages Lifestyle in this refreshed Colony Patio Villa located in Emmalee Villas within the highly desirable Village of Mallory Hill, just minutes from Mallory Hill Country Club, where great golf, standout food, and an easy, social atmosphere come together. This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features a 1.5-car garage and no carpet, brand new laminate flooring throughout designed for durability and easy maintenance. NEW ROOF 2026, A/C 2024 offering added value and peace of mind. Enjoy additional living space in the enclosed, air-conditioned front lanai with ceiling fan, along with a side door leading to an outdoor patio&mdash

Key facts

• 3,520 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Other annual assessment (approx. $1,199)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee (approx. $195); Annual association fees (approx. $2,340); Deed-restricted community; Dog park; Golf carts allowed; Golf; Community pool; Tennis courts; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage with garage door opener; Off-street parking; 1-car garage; Attached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential villa; PUD zoning; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder model: Colony; Built as one-level
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Paved road access; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Blinds; Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 51% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,175 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.91%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,248
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
317 Rowesville Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	4mo	$225,000	$195	93
281 Katherine Pl	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	2mo	$325,000	$281	86
277 Starr Ln	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	0mo	$298,400	$258	86
292 Starr Ln	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	9mo	$225,421	$195	80
305 Starr Ln	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	8mo	$260,000	$225	79
273 Pomaria Pl	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,142 (-1%)	3mo	$280,000	$245	79
585 Lacy Pl	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,196 (+4%)	2mo	$321,500	$269	63
2082 Harston Trl	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,187 (+3%)	4mo	$310,000	$261	60
523 Richburg St	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,196 (+4%)	6mo	$305,000	$255	60
1297 Fort Lawn Loop	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-5%)	1mo	$287,700	$262	59
262 Arbella Loop	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,142 (-1%)	7mo	$307,500	$269	58
547 Richburg St	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,278 (+11%)	8mo	$300,000	$235	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-29,581
• Equity at exit: $40,228

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-357
• Equity at exit: $23,327

Cash invested: $75,544 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,612 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,897/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$195
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,380

Max offer price $269,800

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,450
• Closing costs: $8,094
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
445 Corbett Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,700	$2.45	21d	1	0.28mi
470 Oboe Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,200	$1.77	21d	1	0.62mi
1315 Fort Lawn Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1392	$4,500	$3.23	21d	1	0.65mi
1240 Pageland Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	21d	1	0.79mi
1009 Ridgeville Rd The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,475	$2.08	21d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $195 · $2,340/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $269,800 Pending 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $269,800 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $269,800 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $269,800 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $269,800 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-04-29
   listed $279,800 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,897 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,239 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$342/yr (+$29/mo · 18.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,113
• − Property taxes: −$1,897
• − Insurance: −$1,349
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,507
• − Management: −$2,507
• − HOA: −$2,340
• − Depreciation: −$7,849
• Taxable loss: −$2,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$533
• After-tax cash flow: $2,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $279,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,897 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.