3030 Mark Twain Dr · Badger, AK 99705

$43,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1983 1.13 ac lot $65/sqft · 76% below area ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1.13 acre lot
• Built 1983
• Listed 66 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.9% vs local median 4.9% in Badger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#49 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, crime F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $304 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,266 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 105.88%
• DSCR: 5.71
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,874
• List price: $43,900
• Delta: -76.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $65,900
• Equity at exit: $6,546

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.28×
• Total profit: $163,179
• Equity at exit: $3,796

Cash invested: $12,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99705

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,817 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$230
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,227/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $1,085

Break-even live

Break-even rent $444

Max offer price $43,900

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,975
• Closing costs: $1,317
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $43,900 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $43,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $43,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $43,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $43,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $43,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $43,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $43,900 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $43,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $43,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $43,900 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $43,900 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $43,900 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $43,900 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $43,900 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $43,900 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $43,900
18. 2026-04-14
    listed $45,900 Active
19. 2026-02-24
    price $48,900
20. 2025-12-29
    price $51,900
21. 2025-12-07
    price $54,900
22. 2025-11-19
    price $59,900
23. 2025-10-28
    price $69,900
24. 2025-10-12
    listed $74,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,227 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,227 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,459
• − Property taxes: −$1,227
• − Insurance: −$220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,744
• − Management: −$1,744
• − Depreciation: −$1,277
• Taxable income: $13,131
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,151
• After-tax cash flow: $9,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Badger

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #15681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Badger, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• City population: 22,281
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,769
• Household income: $96,964
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.32%
• Current HPI: 157.102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-41.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $43,900 GFBR
• 2026-04-14 Listed $45,900 GFBR
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $48,900 GFBR
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $51,900 GFBR
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $54,900 GFBR
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $59,900 GFBR
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $69,900 GFBR
• 2025-10-12 Listed $74,900 GFBR

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,227 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.